2006 Predictions...

[FlyingPhotog]

Here's where everyone gets to make airline-related predicitions for 2006. This is not a "wish list" thread.

I predict WN will open service to either LGA or EWR in 2006, based on recent history of opening service to large airports (PHL, DEN).

I predict the Wright Amendment issue will be decided in 2006. If it is repealed WN will hurry to add long range service from DAL, possibly acquiring mothballed planes or leasing in addition to reducing service on less popular routes.

I predict AA will once again end service to DAL by the end of the year and retreat back to DFW. This is based on their past record of non-profit at DAL.

I predit we will see the end of FlyI completely and ATA will go back to only charters.

[chrisburns]

If WN goes into LGA or EWR they will become the biggest hypocrits.. anyway...

FlyI will liquidate
ATA will liquidate
Rumor of Air Tran/Northwest merger
Southwest might drop DEN-LAS
Northwest- heavy losses, more international service
Delta- heavy losses, possible liquidation
American- losses
Continental- losses
Regionals- shrink, some go out of business
US/HP- losses
Fuel prices will drop but not by much.

[Crunk415balla]

-ATA will be forced back into charters for a while, then they'll just fade away.
-Fly I is gone. peroid.
-United will take adavantage of the loss of Fly I and start a TED network at IAD.
-Boston Maine Airways(Pan Am III) will go out of buisness, as will its regional service, and the name will be put to rest as it should have been long ago.
-I wouldn't be surprised to see TED and F9 increase compitition with WN at DEN on their routes.
-Virgin America won't ever be able to aquire the large fleet of A320's it claim's its getting, they won't be doing well enough in this market to fill all those planes.
-Hawaiian may start service to OAK as they recently moved into SMF and SJC even with long time service to SFO.
-Champion airlines may have to start phasing out its 727s, and I doubt they're going to pick up new aircraft. So when the planes go, they go.

[FlyingPhotog]

Burns, why would WN drop DEN-LAS? Pretty much any city to LAS is high loads.

[Crunk415balla]

Burns, why would WN drop DEN-LAS? Pretty much any city to LAS is high loads.

Mabey he's thinking F9 and TED would take its pax load, but that won't happen.

[wannabepilot777]

Burns, why would WN drop DEN-LAS? Pretty much any city to LAS is high loads.

Well, he has this sick, twisted hatred of WN. Oddly enough, I share one (though not as severe) for NW. Funny how that works. (Sorry Chris)

[pkonowrocki]

I predict (and I also wish) that LOT starts using the 7E7 and flies it to CYYZ

I predict that the new terminal on Okecie Airport in Warsaw will be finished so I can be one of the first users to "use it" this summer.

I predict (and I wish) that either Air Canada or Zoom starts flying to Poland

[AA 1818]

I predict (and I also wish) that LOT starts using the 7E7 and flies it to CYYZ

I hope so too - but for one it's way too early, and second, the name is 787! Haha, I can't wait to see them flying though...

[chrisburns]

Burns, why would WN drop DEN-LAS? Pretty much any city to LAS is high loads.

Well Alex just talked to a pilot and saying that the DEN-LAS are not performing anywhere near where they wanted too, and with less then 7 days and they are offering $34 fares etc. Apparently the flights is about 25% booked.

[ATrude777]

Well Alex just talked to a pilot and saying that the DEN-LAS are not performing anywhere near where they wanted too, and with less then 7 days and they are offering $34 fares etc. Apparently the flights is about 25% booked.

Ya I have seen it myself I tried to book a flight and was surprised to get such a low fare, the fact DEN is on sale didnt help much, and a few SWA workers have heard it is not meeting their expectations, DEN-MDW however is up through the roof as most expected.

I have absolutely NO clue how to guess. It is VERY unpredictable.

I just hope whatever happens, it works out for the best.

Alex

[Stephen Toernblom]

- The E190 for B6 will work its kinks out and 06 will be a good year for any market that B6 and the E190 enters.

- B6 will be at 6-8 flights between JFK/BOS-AUS by August and that we will have ground ops there by years end.

- Fuel prices drop by $10-15 per barrel.

-FLYi shuts down before I start my new bid(which starts on 1/8/06)

[stlgph]

Predictions? I'll play! But I'll hit on some of the other airlines skipped thus far.


AirTran
1. Experiences, overall, a good year.

2. Expands point to point services, particularly from the midwest into its east coast cities.

3. I would venture to say AirTran will add another station or two this year. My first guess would be something like Oklahoma City and then perhaps Seattle.

4. Further expansion out of the Indianapolis market.



Allegiant
1. Allegiant will continue to enjoy success with its current business model and will venture into one or two new markets this year into Las Vegas. I will say that Orlando/Sanford will increase by at least one new destination, but even more than that wouldn't surprise anybody.

2. Allegiant's business model will make it very attractive for financial incentives to be offered for either new service, or perhaps even expanded services from its current markets. I'll say they'll begin testing expanded service from some its markets where it flies two days a week, for example, trying it out to see what happens if they go say...four days a week. Allegiant won't go jumping onto daily services any time soon, but given the incentives, I can see where they would play around with it.

3. Towards the end of 2006, I predict discussions will begin as to what aircraft Allegiant will be looking to work with next. Their M80's are reliable and have a lot of long hours in front of them, but such discussion about a replacement plane to start coming on board in the next couple of years is not entirely out of the question.

4. Allegiant, however, will start being tested what its current market can handle. As Las Vegas continues to make a drastic change from the $39 a night hotels which are going away to make room for the mega complexes of the Venetian, Wynn, Bellagio which charge over $300 a night for a room, prices, overall, in Las Vegas will rise steadily beginning in 2006, and continuing over the next few years. The prices could affect those in small town U.S.A.


American
1. American will have an interesting year. Let's just put it at that.

2. Eagle's experiment of charging for in flight amentities will be watched by many in the industry. If it takes off, look for other airlines, especially Delta and Northwest to employ it and for other carriers to follow suit.

3. American will be beefing up Miami whenever and wherever possible. For example, I wouldn't be surprised to see Chicago Midway added to Miami if American could arrange the space. When ATA flew the route, it was very successful and ATA one time was flying 40% of the local market between the two cities.

4. Love Field will be an interesting operation. I will go on a limb and say it will surprise many and the services will do well. I think American will slowly turn the tables and work its way into becoming a thorn in the side of Southwest rather than the other way around.

5. I look for AA to pressure Trans States and Chautauqua to step up to the plate and expand more routes from St. Louis. I wouldn't be surprised to see AA Connection take over all flying into Boston or Washington National, and additional frequencies offered in some other markets, such as Philadelphia. I think a new RJ flight into Providence would fare well.




Delta
1. It gets ugly in 2006. Real ugly. Contracts are broken, pay is slashed, benefits go away so much that the employees become so disgusted they basically wipe their shit on their uniforms to show their disdain.

2. Cincinnati sees elimination of almost all mainline service except to Kennedy, Atlanta, Salt Lake, Europe, and destinations where one or two mainline planes a day are warranted...i.e. San Francisco. Comair, Skywest, and ASA take over the rest of the flying, keeping the cities and schedule they have now, just doing Delta's work for them under the Delta name.

3. The airline simpliflies its fleet drastically and might even go so far to try a whole new far fetched business model. I look for Delta to be the first airline to charge MAINLINE for in flight beverages and snacks. First class means you pay an extra $50 or $75 for the larger seat and perhaps a small meal and your 'complimentary' drinks.


Northwest
1. Northwest gets desperate. And it gets ugly. Worse than over at Delta.

2. Memphis, god bless Memphis, but I see it going away almost entirely becoming an RJ city with the exception of some mainline service to hubs, focus cities, and the select few cities that warrant high local traffic. Pinnacle would almost take it over entirely for themselves but following the Independence Air debacle, stays flying under the Northwest banner.

3. The DC9 workhorses, in a desperate attempt to save money, start going away at a really fast rate. Northwest might even go so far as to replace most, or all DC9 flying with regional carrier service. An option that would be looked into since a bunch of CRJ's will be sitting around looking for a home after Independence Air goes away. If this were to happen, it would come very fast and as soon as the plane was ready, it'd go right into service and the DC9 would come right out of the skies.



United/Ted
1. All eyes will be on the watch to see how the new San Antonio focus city works. If it's a success, be sure to watch for a) expansion from San Antonio into other cities and markets (wouldn't it be a hoot to see them launch service into Love Field, too? ha!) and also b) other airlines out there to follow suit.

2. Ted expands out of Dulles and mimicks some of the Southwest routes from Baltimore. This will keep some of the low traffic customers that have been coming into Dulles to keep coming back to Dulles rather than flocking
back to Baltimore. Both Ted and Southwest will see increase in traffic when Independence shutters but Ted definitely becomes a thorn in the side of the Southwest load factors at Baltimore and strikes a blow back for them coming into Denver.

3. Someone wisens up and United mainline expands point to point from Los Angeles and San Francisco taking advantage of markets from the midwest that could use a good nonstop offering into either one of the cities...hello...Indianapolis?!


Frontier
1. In my own opinion, if Frontier is smart, they stay low key during most of 2006 to watch what transpires on a) their home turf, and b) with the turf of Northwest and Delta. I predict someone at Frontier will wisen up and they will do just that.

2. If another airline shutters or makes drastic changes, I predict Frontier will be one of the carriers that makes a knee jerk reaction to respond. I bet Frontier would love to take a good chunk of gates at Minneapolis - St. Paul if Northwest was to go away.

3. Speaking of Northwest, Frontier, just to honk them off, will launch service to Memphis.

[FlyingPhotog]

Well Alex just talked to a pilot and saying that the DEN-LAS are not performing anywhere near where they wanted too, and with less then 7 days and they are offering $34 fares etc. Apparently the flights is about 25% booked.

Actually I just checked the bookings for all DEN-LAS flights January 3rd and there's no flight less than 44% booked, including one being sold out. $34 fares are just to generate hype for the introduction, we all know how those work. I'm glad to hear you'll be on the first flight!

As Las Vegas continues to make a drastic change from the $39 a night hotels which are going away to make room for the mega complexes of the Venetian, Wynn, Bellagio which charge over $300 a night for a room, prices, overall, in Las Vegas will rise steadily beginning in 2006, and continuing over the next few years. The prices could affect those in small town U.S.A.

Actually I stayed at Venetian for $100 a night last week and man was it SWEET! But I know what you mean, the general trend is to blow up the old hotels for new luxurious, high-priced towers. Much of the new construction in Las Vegas is high-rise condominium towers.

[pkonowrocki]

I hope so too - but for one it's way too early, and second, the name is 787! Haha, I can't wait to see them flying though...

My bad... I'm still using the old names

[Stephen Toernblom]

Predictions? I'll play! But I'll hit on some of the other airlines skipped thus far.


Allegiant
1. Allegiant will continue to enjoy success with its current business model and will venture into one or two new markets this year into Las Vegas. I will say that Orlando/Sanford will increase by at least one new destination, but even more than that wouldn't surprise anybody.

2. Allegiant's business model will make it very attractive for financial incentives to be offered for either new service, or perhaps even expanded services from its current markets. I'll say they'll begin testing expanded service from some its markets where it flies two days a week, for example, trying it out to see what happens if they go say...four days a week. Allegiant won't go jumping onto daily services any time soon, but given the incentives, I can see where they would play around with it.

3. Towards the end of 2006, I predict discussions will begin as to what aircraft Allegiant will be looking to work with next. Their M80's are reliable and have a lot of long hours in front of them, but such discussion about a replacement plane to start coming on board in the next couple of years is not entirely out of the question.

4. Allegiant, however, will start being tested what its current market can handle. As Las Vegas continues to make a drastic change from the $39 a night hotels which are going away to make room for the mega complexes of the Venetian, Wynn, Bellagio which charge over $300 a night for a room, prices, overall, in Las Vegas will rise steadily beginning in 2006, and continuing over the next few years. The prices could affect those in small town U.S.A.

I am willing to say that they will pick up 3-5 MD-80s next year to add frequency on a couple of routes and also add a couple of new routes.