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OAK, Russia's barely set-up new airliner production consortium make their words,

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  • OAK, Russia's barely set-up new airliner production consortium make their words,

    and this won't be fun for everyone else anymore. In fact, they may be again feared as many flock to offer cooperation on the developping Sukhoi SuperJet

    http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...airliners.html

    OAK aims to build 1,200 airliners
    The newly appointed management of Russia's United Aircraft (OAK) has drawn up ambitious plans to produce almost 1,200 new airliners between now and 2015, writes Vladimir Karnozov.

    The production plan has been outlined by OAK president Aleksei Fiodorov, who expects 50% of the aircraft to be delivered within Russia and the rest to be exported.

    Around half of the new aircraft will be mainline jets: 28 Ilyushin Il-96s, 150 Tupolev Tu-204/214s and 490 small jets - the Sukhoi Superjet 100 and Tu-334.

    The regional aircraft component will comprise 170 Antonov An-148 twinjets and over 330 turboprops - 155 An-38s and 177 An-140s. Additionally, Aviastar will build two An-124-100M150 Ruslans using pre-manufactured parts.

    To underpin the production effort, OAK needs to create 8,400 new jobs and invest around Rb22 billion ($839 million) to upgrade plants. In a separate programme, around Rb5 billion will be needed to upgrade the Perm Motors plant that supplies PS90 series engines for the Il-96, Tu-204, and Il-76 military airlifters.

    A further Rb150 billion will be required to create a leasing structure to facilitate the delivery of the aircraft to Russian and overseas airlines.

    Fiodorov says that the OAK product line has been all but finalised and only minor changes are likely before the expected government formalisation of the plan in April. Final decisions remain to be taken on the Tu-334, as well as the Il-114 and Sukhoi Su-80 regional turboprops.

    "The airline customers should decide which aircraft OAK produces," says Fiodorov. "We are holding intensive negotiations with the 'top 20' Russian carriers and some foreign airlines on their fleet renewal plans."
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  • #2
    Interesting to see a new name out there, I'm curious as to what these new aircraft will look like.
    sigpic
    http://www.jetphotos.net/showphotos.php?userid=170

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    • #3
      Good news for Russian Aviation!

      This multy Corp just might work, otherwise the Russian Civilian Aerospace
      program is doomed.

      Comment


      • #4
        I wish them success, but really, there have been too many cases in the Russian aviation industry where certain numbers were predicted, yet never achieved. Kinda like Airbus .

        Oh, and welcome to JP.Net super_vc10 .

        Comment


        • #5
          good luck to the Russian Aviation industry.... thats pretty ambitious.... who all do you think they'd export too, the middle east and east europe? maybe asia?
          Christian Vlček Sullivan | Through The Fence Photography
          Forever New Frontiers

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          • #6
            Probably mostly within the CIS, and on top of that also China. Outside those markets, sales will probably be minimal and primarily made up by freighters.

            Comment


            • #7
              This is the nearest thing to an overall plan I've ever seen from the Russian Aviation Industry so it's pretty exciting for that reason alone. I'm eternally optimistic that Russian Aviation can can rise from the ashes and again be a major contributer to aircraft production. In their favour is that they have a lot of expertise and labour costs are low. Against them is a history of failed promises and stagnation since the Soviet Union broke up.

              The biggest challenge they face is that there is little demand for Russian aircraft at the moment, particularly in Russia itself. I think the key to this plan's success is therefore convincing Russia's own airlines of the following;

              - that the aircraft are competitive with western models in terms of fuel economy, reliability and passenger comfort
              - after sales service and availability of spare parts will be comparable with western models
              - delivery schedule will be reliable

              Here's how I rate the prospects of each model;

              IL-96 - Has been around for ages but is unwanted apart from members of the "rebel group" ie Cuba, Syria, North Koera, Iran, Zimbabwe. Aeroflot were supposed to take another 6 but have apparently wriggled out of the contract. Not a serious competitor to A340 let alone 787 due to lack of fuel efficiency, spare parts and passenger ammenities. Freighter version may find some customers.

              TU-204 - Designed to replace the TU-154 but apart from Vladavia, who wanted these a/c because there is a long range version (TU-204-300), there has been little demand for these a/c from Russian airlines. S7 Management in particular was scathingly critical of their reliability and stopped using their 2 a/c. Other operators of TU-204, (7B & XF) have also ordered western a/c recently in preference to the TU-204 so it's pretty clear it's not very competitive. Spare parts has also been a big problem. A new version with 14% reduction in weight has been mooted which would obviously help along with an improved motor (PS90-A2). Production levels at Aviastar have improved a bit but apart from the rebel group orders are likely to be pretty scarce.

              SSJ100 - The big hope. Developed with extensive participation from the west and manufactured by the most succesful airframer in Russia since the Soviet Union broke up (Sukhoi) this model should get significant CIS and foreign orders.

              TU-334 - Hopeless product and should be abandoned. Designed in the 80's this a/c has not attracted any serious interest in the last 10 years and is even less attractive now the SSJ100 is just around the corner. No one wanted to manufacture it but Kazan (the least modernized of the major plants) drew the short straw. Only thing in it's favour is high level of compatibilty with TU-204.

              AN-148 - Beautiful looking a/c but older design than the SSJ with similar capacity. Being Ukrainian will also count against it (even though it will be assembled in Voronezh). Expect some sales of this a/c, especially to the Ukrainians but 170 is optimistic.

              AN-38 - No idea.

              AN-140 - A/c already has poor safety record (3 losses from 14 built according to aviation safety database) which may count against it. Interesting that Western Airframers haven't penetrated turboprop market segment in Russia yet. Being manufactured under licence in Iran so should be produced in reasonable numbers there. May yet do ok in CIS market.

              AN-124 - Proven winner with no real competitors, especially since A380F has been cancelled. Looks like there are enough spares around to knock up another 2 but they can't justify a business case to restart all of manufacturing processes and resume serial production. Disappointing because with the improvements to payload capacity (100 to 150 tonnes), reduction in crew numbers and improvements to the motor this thing would sell faster than tickets to heaven.

              Comment


              • #8
                first obsticle to overcome

                I think the number one issue here is the lack of after sales service & part availability. Considering the initial cost, personaly I beleive the Russian/Ukrainian
                Jets are in par with its Western counterparts. The AN-148 economics surpasses
                any airplane in its class (above 60 & under 100 passenger catagory).
                Also, you have take under cosideration Western Banking institutions are more favorable to Boeing, Airbus & Embraer on long term loans and leasing agreements. being able to re-coup their loses by confiscation or resale of aircraft in case of payment difault. Yes A thought

                here is link to the latest TU 204CE enjoy, Great Forum


                http://tupolev.ru/Russian/Show.asp?SectionID=218

                Comment


                • #9
                  SSJ100 = the spearhead, may rack up lots of orders also in the West. Is the one offered to AF, SK and LH among others.
                  Alain
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                  • #10
                    Personally I think its stupid to make predictions of aviation market when it comes to numbers. Now we know the result, Superjet sold and flying in Indonesia, Laos and Mexico outside the domestic market,
                    sold to other countries like Belgium but not delivered yet.
                    An-148/158 sold to traditional customers like Cuba and DPRK.
                    Tu-334 retired for good.
                    "The real CEO of the 787 project is named Potemkin"

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Alessandro View Post
                      Personally I think its stupid to make predictions of aviation market when it comes to numbers. Now we know the result, Superjet sold and flying in Indonesia, Laos and Mexico outside the domestic market,
                      sold to other countries like Belgium but not delivered yet.
                      An-148/158 sold to traditional customers like Cuba and DPRK.
                      Tu-334 retired for good.
                      Well Companies cannot embark on Multi-Billon Aircraft development projects without doing Sales Forecasts.

                      You could argue the sales forecasts should be better kept to themselves but the Sales Team need to talk up the product and it's hard to do that without referring to their Sales and Delivery Forecasts. They have to convince Buyers they have a worthwhile product which will be in high demand and manufactured en masse.

                      The obvious problem is that when Sales forecasts are not met credibility suffers. But that is a problem for Future Management not Current.

                      I think they have reason to be satisfied with the quality of the Superjet if not so much the Sales, at least to date. The AN-148 is also quite a reasonable aircraft but the project is unlikely to go anywhere for various Political reasons. The remainder of the program would not appear to have any future.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by DAL767-400ER View Post
                        Probably mostly within the CIS, and on top of that also China. Outside those markets, sales will probably be minimal and primarily made up by freighters.
                        .....until the Chinese take delivery of the first couple of examples and copy them. !!
                        If it 'ain't broken........ Don't try to mend it !

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by tsv View Post
                          Well Companies cannot embark on Multi-Billon Aircraft development projects without doing Sales Forecasts.

                          You could argue the sales forecasts should be better kept to themselves but the Sales Team need to talk up the product and it's hard to do that without referring to their Sales and Delivery Forecasts. They have to convince Buyers they have a worthwhile product which will be in high demand and manufactured en masse.

                          The obvious problem is that when Sales forecasts are not met credibility suffers. But that is a problem for Future Management not Current.

                          I think they have reason to be satisfied with the quality of the Superjet if not so much the Sales, at least to date. The AN-148 is also quite a reasonable aircraft but the project is unlikely to go anywhere for various Political reasons. The remainder of the program would not appear to have any future.
                          Really? Make a good product and try to sell it or make room for it by scrapping older competitors, return of investment is always difficult in the aviation industry since sales
                          is often political.
                          "The real CEO of the 787 project is named Potemkin"

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by brianw999 View Post
                            .....until the Chinese take delivery of the first couple of examples and copy them. !!
                            Well the been struggling with the ARJ-21, but its finally certified in PRC, yesterday, about 4 years late!
                            "The real CEO of the 787 project is named Potemkin"

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