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2008 Outlook

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  • 2008 Outlook

    Well, it's that time of year again where we start to think about what will happen during the next 12 months. No doubt the weakness of the US Dollar and the continuously rising oil prices will make it a difficult year. I predict the following:

    1) Reduced growth for most LCCs with the exception of the likes of Clickair, Ryanair and Wizz Air who will continue to expand vigorously. Also, it has to be only a matter of time before the public get to the point where they're willing to pay slightly more for a better service, which is why I think Jet2 Plus will be successful and other LCCs will follow their lead.
    2) The formation of new long haul LCCs, as well as existing ones launching new long haul services (Jet2 being one).
    3) Mergers and bankruptcy - I can't see the likes of BA Cityflyer, Euromanx, Flyglobespan, Skyeurope and Vueling being around for too much longer
    4) A strong year for charter carriers - I think the two big mergers, FCA/TOM and MYT/TCX will be huge successes.
    5) Lufthansa purchasing SAS' 20% stake in bmi, which I believe will benefit bmi. Also, the opening of T5 will start to improve the fortunes of London Heathrow. I think BA will enjoy a smooth year.

    So, to summarise, a year of reduced growth, with carriers focusing on modifying their existing operations rather than expansion. Further consolidation is inevitable, it's just a question of who will purchase who, and who will merge with who. My analysis is focused on the UK and Europe, I'd be interested to hear what you think will happen in your part of the world, get posting!!

  • #2
    IMHO, it's still a bit early for prediction time, but what the heck, predictions always make for some interesting discussions . So, let's see:

    1) Skybus won't live to see the year 2009

    2) XJet will stop their own-branded flying, choosing to quite most p2p routes and those that are left will be operated under the banner of one of the Legacy carriers

    3) Fuel will go even higher

    4) Delta and American will finally get going with at least part of their planned major orders, each planning a 50+ order for a mix of 738s and 787/777s

    5)There will be lots of strikes at Alitalia

    6)Airbus will officially launch the A380-900 and Emirates will order 50 of them (yes, I am serious)

    7) Boeing will officially launch the 787-10 and 787-11, incorporating new, strenghtened landing gear, wings and engines; Emirates and QANTAS to be launch customers

    There will be lots of strikes at Air France

    9)Neither Airbus nor Boeing will have another 1,000+ year as far as orders go

    10) Lufthansa will convert 10 of their 20 748I options into firm orders

    11) There will be a sh!tload of merger rumors and most of them never make it past word of mouth

    12) NIMBYs will put a stop to airport growth all over the planet, particularly LHR/LGW/STN, SAN and FRA

    13) The FAA in their attempt to reduce traffic at JFK will p!ss off AA/DL/B6 big time, leading long drawn-out legal battles that will last almost the entire year, while JFK will once again choke under its traffic as the FAA can't get the new limits through

    14) DEN, ORD, EWR, BOS, PHL, JFK, IAD, DTW will each suffer through a First Quarter major blizzard that will f*ck up operations at those airports.

    15) Airbus management still can't get through with Power 8, as employees fearing job losses will take to the streets and shut down production at both TLS and XFW for days

    16) Most major EU carriers will start non-homecountry EU-US flights only to realise they are fighting an uphill battle and most of those routes will be discontinued very fast (2009)

    17) Business-only carriers like Maxjet, EOS, Silverjet and L'Avion will all encounter big losses due to the increased competition from the Big Guys and subsequently, one after one they'll be forced to shut down, not being able to compete anymore

    There, that should be enough for now .