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  • Airbus becomes world's leading aircraft manufacturer

    Airbus exceeded Boeing in total units delivered in 2019 (863 aircraft vs 345) for the first time since 2012. Airbus is also leading Boeing in future orders for the first time: 718 vs -84 in same period for Boeing. Going forward, the majority of new midsize passenger aircraft in the sky will therefore be flying under the Airbus safety philosophy: Normal, Alternate, Direct laws.

    Just wondering if you guys feel this might move the needle on fatalities and injuries per passenger mile? And if so, in which direction?

    Boeing has seen a sharp fall in deliveries as its bestselling MAX jets remain grounded following two fatal crashes. It's not the first time the US plane maker has lost the crown to its European rival.

  • #2
    Going forward, the majority of new midsize passenger aircraft in the sky will therefore be flying under the Airbus safety philosophy: Normal, Alternate, Direct laws.
    I am not so sure of your conclusions.

    If the ban on the max is lifted early this year, Boeing will blast away Airbus with deliveries in 2020. It has hundreds and hundreds of finished MAXes ready for delivery.

    Boeing also has thousands of MAXes on backlog not built yet. The total backlog for the MAX is over 4500, of which some hundreds were delivered or built (there are also 46 NGs not delivered yet). So how much will Boeing deliver this year depends largely on their own capacity to deliver and build planes rather than on the demand (assuming that the MAX gets certified).
    And that doesn't take into account the 500+ 787, 400+ 777s i(300 of which are777-X which is expected to be certified and start deliveries this year), and 17 747s in backlog.
    So even without any new order, Boeing has years which of orders in backlog which for the most part are contingent on getting the MAX re-certified and the 777-X certified.

    The orders with the MAX obviously halted with the uncertainty (mostly nobody wants to order a grounded plane). But if the plane is delivered by the hundreds this year and it proves to be successful, it will very likely spark orders again. Even in the middle of the crisis Boeing launched the MAX 10 last November (the biggest MAX). I don't believe that the public resistance to fly the MAX will be a factor in the medium and long term. Most persons can't tell a MAX from a non-max, most even never know what plane type their flight is, and those who know (who are the in general the ones most linked to aviation and should know that the MAX will be the most screened and scrutinized plane ever). And a few months later all this will be forgotten and nobody (in the public) will be paying attention, and the airlines will still be delighted with the MAX as a tool to make revenue at a (relatively) low cost especially for airlines that are already big 737 operators.

    I foresee that after the re-certification the MAX will be a success. And after Boeing is out of the MAX problem and the 777-X certification, they will have ton of engineering resources available to develop the new MoM and the new 737 (perhaps as part of the dame project, as it was originally intended with the Y1) which will very likely leverage materials, design concepts and technologies from the 787, bringing Boeing definitely ) (and finally) in the XXI century. An offer of a modern 737 replacement, modern 757 / small 767 replacement, the large 767 and smaller original 777s being covered by the 787, and the larger 777s and 747s being covered by the 777-X will be a very competitive offer. And we still need to see how the acquisition or join venture with Embraer works for the smaller-capacity-and-shorter-range market.

    In any event, I share with Evan the desire that Boeing comes out of this crisis stronger and with a renewed focus on innovation and engineering rather than short-term share value, and that we have a strong and productive competition between Boeing and Airbus that keeps improving the efficiency and safety of commercial aviation. And I actually think that that is what is going to happen.

    --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
    --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

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    • #3
      Originally posted by flashcrash View Post
      Airbus exceeded Boeing in total units delivered in 2019 (863 aircraft vs 345) for the first time since 2012. Airbus is also leading Boeing in future orders for the first time: 718 vs -84 in same period for Boeing. Going forward, the majority of new midsize passenger aircraft in the sky will therefore be flying under the Airbus safety philosophy: Normal, Alternate, Direct laws.
      Whoa... that's a rather unfounded conclusion. Airbus "toppled" Boeing every year from 2003 to 2012. Are the majority of aircraft in service Airbus models? Boeing has been in the lead for the previous six years by a margin of around 100 deliveries or less (just barely ahead in 2012 and 13). The MAX debarcle obviously foiled them last year, but will help them rebound this year. The mid-to-large commercial aircraft market is one of the few markets left that thrives on close competition and I see ever reason to expect that to continue. Still, Boeing must get a new single-aisle airframe to the market by the mid-2020's to remain competitive.

      Just wondering if you guys feel this might move the needle on fatalities and injuries per passenger mile? And if so, in which direction?
      The only thing that moves that needle is safety culture.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Evan View Post
        Still, Boeing must get a new single-aisle airframe to the market by the mid-2020's to remain competitive.
        Are you serious? Do you realize that we are in the early 2020's already?

        Unless there is some heavy secret work that has been going on for a few years now, there is no 737 replacement in the market by the mid 20's. There is just no time available to make it to that mark. Plus, the MAX has barely started, the MAX-10 has just been launched, and it is competitive agaisnt the A320 neo. The MAX will complete its cycle. What Boeing needs is the next future-generation single aisle plane (and a good one!) announced, taking orders, and certified before Airbus next spin of the A320, which will not happen before 10 years or more. I see it more like a mid 30's than a mid 20's thing. Boeing will probably go for the MoM first, then for the 737 replacement.

        --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
        --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Gabriel View Post

          Are you serious? Do you realize that we are in the early 2020's already?
          Seriously? WTF? It was just 2015 like ten minutes ago...

          Unless there is some heavy secret work that has been going on for a few years now, there is no 737 replacement in the market by the mid 20's. There is just no time available to make it to that mark. Plus, the MAX has barely started, the MAX-10 has just been launched, and it is competitive agaisnt the A320 neo. The MAX will complete its cycle. What Boeing needs is the next future-generation single aisle plane (and a good one!) announced, taking orders, and certified before Airbus next spin of the A320, which will not happen before 10 years or more. I see it more like a mid 30's than a mid 20's thing. Boeing will probably go for the MoM first, then for the 737 replacement.
          I don't think it's unrealistic from a development point of view. Boeing went from clean sheet to first flight of the FBW B777 in four years. It was in service the following year. But Boeing already has much more than a clean sheet on this. If they focused on it (and got their house in order), a 737 replacement could be in service by the mid-2020's.

          As for the market demand, I wouldn't be so confident about the endurance of the 737-MAX. The main selling point was fleet commonality and cockpit commonality, and it now seems that they will require a significant type-rating transition as well as type-specific simulators. You also have to keep in mind that the technology is always moving forward and the 737 might not be able to carry it. Engine developments are now focused on geared turbofans, ultra-bypass (up to 15:1!), adaptive performance modes and all these things add up to not only greater fuel efficiency but also lower emissions and lower noise levels. WIll the maxed-out MAX be able to scale up to new technologies? It's not hard to foresee the possibility of coming-decade governments imposing surcharges on emissions and noise abatement exceedances. New market factors might arise. The A320, which was a decade ahead of its time in the late 80's, will be relevant into the 2030's. If I were purchasing airframes in this decade, I would be considering their potential obsolescence vs upgradability over a 25-30 year lifespan. AIrbus has not one but two modern FBW single-aisle products that should meet that need. Does Boeing have even one?

          Comment


          • #6
            The 787 was a good replacement for the largest 767 and smallest 777, the 777X will be a good replacement for the bigger 777 and the 747, and the future replacement of the 737 will be a good replacement of the 737. Yes, it will be a different type and you will need type-specific procedures and training, but it will still be a Boeing with aerodynamic control surfaces that always moves in unison together with the 2 conspicuous yoke regardless of whether the yokes are moved by the pilot or the automation, with AoA and speed stability that will mimic that of a Cessna 152 (or a 747), and and engine whose output is linked to the actual position of the thrust levers regardless of whether they are moved by the pilot or the auto-throttle. If you like that an if you already have mostly Boeings and you like them (and you like Boeing's support), then I doubt you would make now the transition to the A320 instead of doing it to the MAX and then, in 15 years, transition to the new clean-sheet Boeing (vs the new generation that of the by then will be a 40/50 years-old A320 design that will come out more or less at the same time, and which might then be the final version of the A320 very much like the MAX is if the 737). You will have a transition anyway, so the question is which one s the best one.

            --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
            --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by flashcrash View Post
              Airbus exceeded Boeing in total units delivered in 2019 (863 aircraft vs 345) for the first time since 2012. Airbus is also leading Boeing in future orders for the first time: 718 vs -84 in same period for Boeing. Going forward, the majority of new midsize passenger aircraft in the sky will therefore be flying under the Airbus safety philosophy: Normal, Alternate, Direct laws.

              Just wondering if you guys feel this might move the needle on fatalities and injuries per passenger mile? And if so, in which direction?
              Airbus exceeded Boeing in total units delivered in 2019 (863 aircraft vs 345)
              Somebody with my nickname should not be proud of what you stated, or should I. I know a city which I really like very much, which indeed are proud now. Hamburg.

              The aviation world has completely changed during the last 15 years. I still know the reason why I became a jetphotos forum member, 11 years ago. The airline who made my home airport strong again after the war, the LTU Düsseldorf - est 1955, was destroyed in 2008 by an airline in East Germany who today still is younger than me! Fortuna-tely (!), AB will never become older than 39...
              So, if you ask me, name important a/c types which you've seen live on your home airport, I would not necessarily mention an Airbus first.
              1. LTU Lockheed TriStar
              2. The winner of that German aviation war in 2008. The LH-B744.
              3. The Airbus A320.

              And why is Airbus so successful. Today, I know only one 'Boeing only' fleet on this planet, and that is El Al.
              American Airlines, United, Delta and even the airline of the century, KLM (who once had a Boeing only fleet), said to themselves, why shouldn't we try Airbus.

              KLM are MCAS free, even with a quite big 737 fleet, 16+30+5 . So, KLM operates a fleet of 51 B737s, and still MCAS free.
              But with more than a whole century of experience, they know all the good a/c types. Very dear greetings to Schiphol.

              100 years of experience. Almost incredibile. A prototype for all the other International airlines.
              That's what airlines are good for, amongst others,
              The Gold Member in the 747 club, 50 years since the first LH 747.
              And constantly advanced, 744 and 748 /w upper and lower EICAS.
              Aviation enthusiast, since more than 35 years with home airport EDDL.

              Comment


              • #8
                + One again, if I'm allowed to,

                Flash. You might see where I aim at for the answer of your 'needle' question. Ethiopian Airlines was founded in 1945. Older than 'the new Lufthansa', est. 1955. More than 74 years of airline history were not able to make the 737 Max safe. So, will the amount of fatalities again come down
                since the beginning of 2019 (ET # 302). I'd not only say yes, I'd say, the speed-indicator needle for fatalities has to come down again to a normal 737 cruise speed, Mach 0.76 or something like that.
                I don't know the perfect recipe, but in case of the 737 max the ET # 302 Flight Captain (only 29 years young, but 8000 flight hours strong) and all the others could only have been saved by a Chief Executive Officer (CEO) who says, NO.

                We don't buy a 737 when somebody tries to combine the 737 with two huge 747 engines. That does not work. Period.

                KLM, .. and one rather unimportant European airline do own such CEOs. LH is also MCAS free, and I'm really really happy about that fact. Delta is MCAS free. And when Airbus can be helpful to avoid another MCAS failure.
                Yes. I like to support that!
                That's what airlines are good for, amongst others,
                The Gold Member in the 747 club, 50 years since the first LH 747.
                And constantly advanced, 744 and 748 /w upper and lower EICAS.
                Aviation enthusiast, since more than 35 years with home airport EDDL.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by LH-B744 View Post
                  And why is Airbus so successful. Today, I know only one 'Boeing only' fleet on this planet, and that is El Al.
                  All-Boeing fleets:

                  El Al (45 in service, 5 on order).

                  Ryanair (368 in service, 138 on order)

                  Southwest (746 in service, 376 on order)

                  Although there have been rumblings toward the A320 over at Southwest...

                  AeroMexico (75 in service, 58 on order).

                  FlyDubai (56 in service, 236 on order).

                  GOL (134 in service, 128 on order).

                  Westjet (124 in service, 50 on order).

                  XiamenAir (167 in service, 23 on order).

                  Norwegian (27 plus 121 subsidary in service) is currently Boeing only, but may retract their current orders and move toward an all Airbus fleet.

                  LOT operates an all-Boeing fleet for non-regional, although they are said to be leasing a few A320's this year.

                  And a bunch of smaller airlines like Smartwings and Sun Country come to mind.

                  And even in your backyard, TUI Fly Deutschland (35 in service, 25 on order).

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Evan View Post

                    All-Boeing fleets:

                    El Al (45 in service, 5 on order).

                    Ryanair (368 in service, 138 on order)

                    Southwest (746 in service, 376 on order)

                    Although there have been rumblings toward the A320 over at Southwest...

                    AeroMexico (75 in service, 58 on order).

                    FlyDubai (56 in service, 236 on order).

                    GOL (134 in service, 128 on order).

                    Westjet (124 in service, 50 on order).

                    XiamenAir (167 in service, 23 on order).

                    Norwegian (27 plus 121 subsidary in service) is currently Boeing only, but may retract their current orders and move toward an all Airbus fleet.

                    LOT operates an all-Boeing fleet for non-regional, although they are said to be leasing a few A320's this year.

                    And a bunch of smaller airlines like Smartwings and Sun Country come to mind.

                    And even in your backyard, TUI Fly Deutschland (35 in service, 25 on order).
                    He tends to post "FACTS" kind of like our illustrious President does. It's those "ALTERNATE" facts.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Gabriel View Post
                      I am not so sure of your conclusions.
                      Always good to be skeptical of conclusions, especially if they're projections. I should have the midsize passenger aircraft cumulative numbers for 2019 in a couple of weeks. Meantime, here's a graphic of the 2018 numbers. Credit to Javier Irastorza Mediavilla.

                      Click image for larger version

Name:	737_vs_a320_family_deliveries_per_model_1967-2018.png?w=650&h=427.png
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