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Reports of a Ukrainian 737 Having Crashed in Tehran

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  • #16
    The Iranian Civil aviation authority is highly capable and generally respected, with a reported 90% compliance with ICAO Safety Oversight SARPs in 2010 (ranked 20th in the world). We can debate the veracity of that statement, but this is no rogue authority.

    Iran's leadership, however, like many nations in this dark age, including the US and Russia, is belligerent, opaque and corrupt. The ability of these earnest civil agencies is thwarted by such governmental interference and corruption (see: the FAA). We just have to hope the integrity of the good people at the CAO:IRI can overcome the subterfuge of the republic. I think there is reason to hope that the truth will at least leak out, eventually.

    Again, if the Iranians do not allow international inspection of the crash scene and wreckage, a moratorium on flights in and out of the country should be the immediate result.

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    • #17
      The difference is that the NTSB is truly independent, or at least as independent as it gets, from the central government, its agencies (like the FAA) and private companies.

      There is no way that the Iran Air Investigation Board can be independent of Iran's central government simply because such independence doesn't exist in Iran, not for the investigation boards, not for the anti-corruption agencies, not for the news media, it just doesn't.

      That said, there is an interesting paragraph in the latest update in AvHerlad:

      During the night from Jan 8th to Jan 9th 2020 somebody on Twitter released a photo of a Tor 9K331 warhead presumably found at the crash site (and temporarily even the reader comments below flooded over referencing that photo). The location as well as the authenticity of the photo were not verifyable. The Aviation Herald therefore sent an inquiry to Iran's AIB with the photo, the supposed location at the crash site and relevant links in support and contradicting the authenticity of that photo and asked, whether the accident investigation had found such a part (expressing the hope that these issues wouldn't add too much to the stresses of the AIB). Iran's AIB Chairman Hassan Rezaeifar responded stating: "We save evidence and wreckage of the aircraft and never found this part. All wreckage parts were transferred to the special hanger in order to investigate with cooperation of NTSB, Ukraine NBAI and other interest parties which has been invited officially." Mr. Rezaeifar continued: "Due to special political condition of my country, we instituted a special group more than technical accident investigation groups to assess the condition of Laser attack or dangerous good- electromagnetic (radioactive threat) and unlawful action. The initial conclusion of this group confirmed that there was not found any evidence of mentioned actions on the accident site. Also we will trace all other evidences of the accident by gathering all information of the accident." The chairman indicated the AIB plans to release a preliminary first report in English during Jan 9th 2020

      --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
      --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

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      • #18
        Originally posted by Evan View Post
        In addition to the Cpt and FO, there was a 12K hour instructor pilot in the cockpit. The Cpt had 11k hours. There were also 6 flight attendants. The cause of this crash has to be made known. If it was a shootdown, the wreckage alone will tell the story. That wreckage must be shared with international investigators, or international flights must be banned from flying into and out of Iran. The world is a mess of corruption but the aviation industry still has integrity. I hope the industry steps up here and draws a line.
        Nobody is going to ask the industry's opinion on this.

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        • #19
          Originally posted by Gabriel View Post
          I don't know if there is really something in these pictures or if people is trying to see things. I also don't know if the punctures are outward or inward.
          The deformation in the third image suggests shrapnel/debris entering the fuselage from outside the aircraft.

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          • #20
            Originally posted by TeeVee View Post

            since when do rogue states like iran care about what carries weight, or the truth for that matter?
            Oh, they care about the truth as long as it works in their favor.

            Reuters has just reported that Ukraine has invited the UK to take part in the investigation. Hard to believe that it has not been cleared with the Iranians.

            I would have thought they would have chosen the Germans or another country the Iranians don't have such a complicated history with. After all Iran was for a long time under British role. I guess that is why the request was made by Ukraine. I'm sure the Iranians had no desire to admit they need help in solving this crash - least of all form the British.

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            • #21
              Originally posted by Evan View Post

              Again, if the Iranians do not allow international inspection of the crash scene and wreckage, a moratorium on flights in and out of the country should be the immediate result.
              Don't forget a strongly-worded letter to Their Holiness' the Ayatollahs.

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by Evan View Post

                Iran's leadership, however, like many nations in this dark age, including the US and Russia, is belligerent, opaque and corrupt.
                Oy.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by flashcrash View Post

                  The deformation in the third image suggests shrapnel/debris entering the fuselage from outside the aircraft.
                  If we for a second dismiss terror or accidental attack eg. bomb or missile strike. What would fit the pictures and video.

                  High speed Shrapnel/debris from the engine would obviously/most likely hit the center of the fuselage, but what about slower moving objects or secondary debris? Could parts of the engine or wing be flung back at the vertical stabilizer?

                  The airplane was obviously not able to return to the airport but the video shows that it had significant forward motion. Short as it was, I would think that for most of the flight, after the initial incident the plane was mostly intact. Yet the speed of the fire and lack of controls made the situation impossible for the pilots.

                  The pilots would not have taken of with a fire on-board. In other words the fire must have started after V1. I don't see how a cargo fire would be able to grow that big in less than a minute. This bring us back to three possibilities. 1. Terror from within the airplane. 2. Deliberate or accidental attack from outside. 3. Catastrophic failure of part or component. e.g. uncontained engine failure igniting the fuel.

                  I can't remember the flight number of the China Airlines 737-800 that went up in flames in Japan after it landed safely. I think it was a bolt penetrating the fuel tank. Any thoughts?

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Gabriel View Post
                    During the night from Jan 8th to Jan 9th 2020 somebody on Twitter released a photo of a Tor 9K331 warhead presumably found at the crash site (and temporarily even the reader comments below flooded over referencing that photo). The location as well as the authenticity of the photo were not verifyable. The Aviation Herald therefore sent an inquiry to Iran's AIB with the photo, the supposed location at the crash site and relevant links in support and contradicting the authenticity of that photo and asked, whether the accident investigation had found such a part (expressing the hope that these issues wouldn't add too much to the stresses of the AIB). Iran's AIB Chairman Hassan Rezaeifar responded stating: "We save evidence and wreckage of the aircraft and never found this part. All wreckage parts were transferred to the special hanger in order to investigate with cooperation of NTSB, Ukraine NBAI and other interest parties which has been invited officially." Mr. Rezaeifar continued: "Due to special political condition of my country, we instituted a special group more than technical accident investigation groups to assess the condition of Laser attack or dangerous good- electromagnetic (radioactive threat) and unlawful action. The initial conclusion of this group confirmed that there was not found any evidence of mentioned actions on the accident site. Also we will trace all other evidences of the accident by gathering all information of the accident." The chairman indicated the AIB plans to release a preliminary first report in English during Jan 9th 2020
                    Uh... if a warhead were involved, I think it would be dust right about now, and even if it failed to detonate, it would have landing quite far from the crash site.

                    It's hopeful that there is at least some mention of international cooperation.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      According to BBC:
                      Iran mistakenly shot down the Ukrainian plane that crashed on Wednesday near Tehran with 176 people on board, US media report.

                      US officials say they believe the Ukrainian International Airlines Boeing 737-800 was hit by a missile, CBS says.

                      Ukraine earlier said it was examining whether a missile strike brought down the aircraft - but Iran ruled this out.

                      The crash came just hours after Iran carried out missile strikes on two airbases housing US forces in Iraq.

                      CBS News quoting US intelligence said a satellite detected infrared "blips" of two missile launches, followed by another blip of an explosion.

                      Meanwhile, Newsweek quoted a Pentagon and a senior US intelligence officials, as well as an Iraqi intelligence official as saying they believed the Ukrainian plane was hit by a Russian-made Tor missile.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by HansPeter View Post

                        I can't remember the flight number of the China Airlines 737-800 that went up in flames in Japan after it landed safely. I think it was a bolt penetrating the fuel tank. Any thoughts?
                        Loose bolt in the flap track fairing as far as I can remember. It would occur upon slat retraction.

                        Again, the most telling thing is the sudden loss of ATC transponder data. We seem to have witnessed the plane on fire but still flying, which means it didn't suddenly disintegrate. So what would cause the loss of transponder data? I can't see an uncontained engine failure (either due to internal engine failure or an infrared missile strike) having that result. Sure, shrapnel could take out one of the ATC antennae, but both of them?. That leaves a sudden loss of power to the avionics or the destruction of the avionics themselves, neither of which seems likely as the immediate result of a catastrophic engine failure. I'm not suggesting that it's impossible. I just can't see how it would go down. In catatrophic engine failures, I have never seen damage to the cockpit/avionic bay area, which is, btw, also where the ATC antennae are located.

                        On the other hand, a scenario like MH-17 would see the immediate destruction of this forward section. However, how would the aircraft then fly that distance without disintegrating in midair?

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          the head of a TOR missile (which is what we see on the picture) is the guidance system/penetrative part, it usually gets separated from the remain of the missile on impact/explosion and can be found afterwards; and yes usually pretty far from the crash site which seems the case here. The warhead with explosive is located in the mid part of the missile.
                          Last edited by Alex - Spot-This !; 2020-01-09, 17:54.

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Alex - Spot-This ! View Post
                            the head of a TOR missile (which is what we see on the picture) is the guidance system/penetrative part, it usually gets separated from the remain of the missile on impact/explosion and can be found afterwards; and yes usually pretty far from the crash site which seems the case here. The warhead with explosive is located in the mid part of the missile.
                            I see. Like the Buk 9M38 that took down MH-17, the TOR is a proximity-fused, radar-guided missile system. If the warhead detonated in front of the aircraft as it did with MH-17, that would explain the loss of transponder.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              WASHINGTON/KIEV (Reuters) - A Ukraine airliner that crashed in Iran, killing all 176 people aboard, was most likely brought down accidentally by Iranian air defenses, U.S. officials said on Thursday, and President Donald Trump said he did not believe the crash was due to a mechanical issue.

                              Citing an extensive review of satellite data, one U.S. official said the government had concluded with a high degree of certainty that anti-aircraft missiles brought down the plane, on the same day that Iran launched ballistic missiles at U.S. forces in Iraq.

                              The official said the Ukraine International Airlines plane had been tracked by Iranian radar.

                              The data showed the Boeing 737-800 (BA.N) was airborne for two minutes after departing Tehran when the heat signatures of two surface-to-air missiles were detected, one of the officials said.

                              That was quickly followed by an explosion in the vicinity of the plane, this official said. Heat signature data then showed the plane on fire as it went down.
                              https://www.reuters.com/article/us-i...-idUSKBN1Z80I3

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                              • #30
                                with that latest video, no more doubts

                                https://twitter.com/sotiridi/status/...801448454?s=21

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