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Reports of a Ukrainian 737 Having Crashed in Tehran

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  • #46
    Another thought. I don’t see lights on the plane before or after the strike in that video. Shouldn’t there be something? It isn’t in clouds as you can see the bit of flame or whatever after the strike.

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    • #47
      that means if a missile has a transponder installed would not be intercepted?

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      • #48
        Originally posted by Evan View Post

        Interesting theory. It would have been supernaturally bad timing...
        Well, I just connected a couple of dots (not enough to make a full picture though). According to this, the plane would have been hit about 25~30 seconds after the last transponder signal.

        https://twitter.com/bellingcat/statu...60000295653379

        --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
        --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

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        • #49
          Remember that the filmer of the 2nd video came out and filmed the scene because he had already heard something loud. Lot of theories now lean towards 2 missiles, 1st one (not filmed) hits or exploses nearby the 737 and takes the transborder out. 2Nd missile, filmed, hits the target and plane possibly loses control for a while on a turn, back to the airport which could have been controlled or not. Just theories though
          The more and more infos about 2 missile launches (detected by US Satellites) seems to confirm at least part of it

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          • #50
            Originally posted by Alex - Spot-This ! View Post
            Remember that the filmer of the 2nd video came out and filmed the scene because he had already heard something loud. Lot of theories now lean towards 2 missiles, 1st one (not filmed) hits or exploses nearby the 737 and takes the transborder out. 2Nd missile, filmed, hits the target and plane possibly loses control for a while on a turn, back to the airport which could have been controlled or not. Just theories though
            The more and more infos about 2 missile launches (detected by US Satellites) seems to confirm at least part of it
            Has it been confirmed that the missiles were spaced rather than launched simultaneously?

            Gabriel's theory is compelling, but the astonishingly bad luck of losing the transponder (a rare occurance) at that moment is a bit much to accept. Stranger things have happened, I guess.

            Taking it up a notch, is it possible that Iran was using electronic warfare defenses in that area? I can envision a scenario in which the transponder signal is jammed, rendering the plane a possible foe and resulting in the missile strikes.

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            • #51
              Yeah, I would not even call it a theory. It was just a crazy thought that came to my mind without seeking it.

              --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
              --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

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              • #52
                I am not even fully convinced of the missile theory, although it is the most compelling one so far.

                What is strange about it is that obviously the Iranians would know it and would have known it since the very beginning, perhaps even before the missile hit the plane. How are they going to hide it with all the satellite intelligence, international investigators on-site, etc? It would have been much easier just admit it and say it was a mistake (or a crime by a rogue soldier that will be stonned to death). These mistakes happen in conflict zones. It happened to the USA, Russia, Ukraine's rebels...

                If it was a missile, and they know it (and I can't believe they don't), saying things like it is scientifically impossible and that there was no evidence found of a missile, laser or bomb, is just not helpful even for them. How are they going to get out of it now?

                --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
                --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

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                • #53
                  Originally posted by Gabriel View Post
                  I am not even fully convinced of the missile theory, although it is the most compelling one so far.

                  What is strange about it is that obviously the Iranians would know it and would have known it since the very beginning, perhaps even before the missile hit the plane. How are they going to hide it with all the satellite intelligence, international investigators on-site, etc? It would have been much easier just admit it and say it was a mistake (or a crime by a rogue soldier that will be stonned to death). These mistakes happen in conflict zones. It happened to the USA, Russia, Ukraine's rebels...

                  If it was a missile, and they know it (and I can't believe they don't), saying things like it is scientifically impossible and that there was no evidence found of a missile, laser or bomb, is just not helpful even for them. How are they going to get out of it now?
                  People are duuuuuuuumb. People wan't to believe their leaders. The rest of the world isn't a priority when your brand is isolationism. It's called 'alternative facts'. Welcome to the post-truth world.

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                  • #54
                    Originally posted by Gabriel View Post
                    I am not even fully convinced of the missile theory, although it is the most compelling one so far.

                    What is strange about it is that obviously the Iranians would know it and would have known it since the very beginning, perhaps even before the missile hit the plane. How are they going to hide it with all the satellite intelligence, international investigators on-site, etc? It would have been much easier just admit it and say it was a mistake (or a crime by a rogue soldier that will be stonned to death). These mistakes happen in conflict zones. It happened to the USA, Russia, Ukraine's rebels...

                    If it was a missile, and they know it (and I can't believe they don't), saying things like it is scientifically impossible and that there was no evidence found of a missile, laser or bomb, is just not helpful even for them. How are they going to get out of it now?
                    because they are riding high on the "revenge" they took on the US for assassinating their general and they can't stand the though of loosing face having essentially murdered 82 of their own.

                    deny. deny. deny. it's what all governments do when they can't face the truth.

                    they are also claiming they killed 80 americans in the missile attack on the US base in iraq, despite the fact that even the iraqis, that are on the verge of kicking the americans out, flat out deny anyone was killed.

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                    • #55
                      "On Jan 10th 2020 Ukraine's investigators on site in Tehran indicated they wanted to search for missile remains at the scene of crash in Tehran." (AVHerald)

                      good luck! especially after iranians bulldozed the place.

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                      • #56
                        Originally posted by TeeVee View Post
                        so they've invited boeing apparently (and i stand corrected or wrong, depending on how you look at it), but the BBC is reporting that they've already bulldozed the crash site.

                        nah, no cover up at all......
                        Bulldozing plus people picking up wreckage -- way to destroy evidence.

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                        • #57
                          Iran Says It Unintentionally Shot Down Ukrainian Jetliner

                          Tehran, Iran (AP) -- Iran announced Saturday that its military ‘unintentionally’ shot down a Ukrainian jetliner, killing all 176 aboard.

                          The statement came Saturday morning and blamed “human error” for the shootdown.
                          https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...inian-jetliner

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                          • #58
                            Originally posted by Gabriel View Post
                            If it was a missile, and they know it (and I can't believe they don't), saying things like it is scientifically impossible and that there was no evidence found of a missile, laser or bomb, is just not helpful even for them. How are they going to get out of it now?
                            Voila:

                            https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/10/w...ane-crash.html

                            Sometimes the overwhelming evidence conspires against your best cover-up attempts. This is the point where you invent some nonsense about a "sharp, unexpected turn toward a sensitive military base".

                            But the elephant is in the room, and it's asking why in the love of god were you operating commercial flights at a time like that.

                            This will be the question from here on.

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                            • #59
                              Iran have just officially admitted that they shot down the ukrainian plane, claiming its a human error.

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                              • #60
                                Originally posted by Evan View Post
                                why in the love of god were you operating commercial flights at a time like that.

                                This will be the question from here on.
                                That is ONE of the questions (both for Iran and for UIA).

                                Another question is how the mistake happened. It was SAM site placed very close to the biggest airport hundreds if not thousands of miles around which is hundreds of miles away from the nearest border, all which I have no doubt was known to the SAM crew, and the plane had just taken off from such airport and was climbing normally. How can it mistaken for some enemy plane? Coming from where?

                                And finally, although not really important to prevent events like these in the future, it would be interesting to know how was the mechanics of the accident, what was affected by the missile(s), if there was any chance whatsoever to control the plane, etc...

                                --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
                                --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

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