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FAO BoeingBobby: TOPMS, but the other way around

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  • #16
    Originally posted by Evan View Post

    When this is over, we should see a surge in demand and a surge in the travel industry. The industry should be prepared for this.
    Yes, we should, and I certainly hope we do, but I'm not too optimistic. I fear June is already lost, and July and August will likely still be way off from last year's numbers. We shall see.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by ATLcrew View Post

      Yes, we should, and I certainly hope we do, but I'm not too optimistic. I fear June is already lost, and July and August will likely still be way off from last year's numbers. We shall see.
      And after August you have the cold months starting again with a possible rebound of the epidemic.

      I have very little doubt that the demand will be badly hurt for several months if not one year or more. But it will recover and whatever airlines survive the crisis will have stronger demand than ever.

      --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
      --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

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      • #18
        Originally posted by Evan View Post

        Oh no, not the blessed 767's! The last of the dignified airliners. Isn't there a way to re-engine these? Slap on a pair of Trent 1000's? FBW the wing spoilers?

        Well, I guess there will be a surplus of cheap Boeings coming to market. Never been a better time to start Sweet Monkey Airlines.
        The problem is that you can get rid of your fleet of 757's, 767's A310 and A330 in an instant. But you can not get new airplanes in an instant.

        --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
        --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

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        • #19
          Originally posted by Gabriel View Post

          And after August you have the cold months starting again with a possible rebound of the epidemic.
          Exactly. What are "we" supposed to do about CoVid20, Covid21 etc? Shut the whole economy down every time or what?

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          • #20
            Originally posted by ATLcrew View Post

            Exactly. What are "we" supposed to do about CoVid20, Covid21 etc? Shut the whole economy down every time or what?
            I don't think there will be such a thing. Once there is a vaccine or a good fraction of the population got it and got over it, there will be community immunity and it will be over until the new great outbreak which tends to happen about once per century and for which we will be hopefully better prepared having learned the lessons from this one. I said hopefully.

            --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
            --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by Gabriel View Post

              I don't think there will be such a thing. Once there is a vaccine or a good fraction of the population got it and got over it, there will be community immunity and it will be over until the new great outbreak which tends to happen about once per century and for which we will be hopefully better prepared having learned the lessons from this one. I said hopefully.
              Some things to consider, contrary to the prophesies of our lord and savior in the White House:

              Novel vaccines typically take five to ten years to bring to widespread availability. True, under the circumstances and with the entire world banging away at it we have reason to hope for a quicker timeframe but the real experts are saying that even 18 months is probably optimistic. "Herd immunity" will probably end this thing before a vaccine shows up. Many will have to perish and the rest of us will have to adopt healthy lifestyles for stronger immune response. Hopefully, new treatments will reduce it to a prolonged nuisance in the meantime.

              Immunity after recovery might be short lived. The common cold only provides immunity for approx. three months.

              Mutations tend to become progressively milder (although not always). With any luck, the next version of this thing will only be a nuisance.

              The pharma industry has no heart and no moral compunction (in case you missed the opiod crisis). They make vastly more money providing treatments than cures. There are diabolical minds at work over there considering that future mutations of Covid19, with much lower morbidity rates, will represent a rich new revenue stream. They want to tame this thing, not kill it.

              To envision the future, just look at the flu season with many more customers. The aviation industry did just fine with the flu. They'll probably do fine with the new viruses as well, once the novel strain has run its course. There will just be more miserable passengers to deal with.

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              • #22
                Originally posted by ATLcrew View Post

                Yes, we should, and I certainly hope we do, but I'm not too optimistic. I fear June is already lost, and July and August will likely still be way off from last year's numbers. We shall see.
                You will see a small surge, and then a slow recovery on the order of 18-24+ months, just after the last two economic crises. That is what they are banking on.

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