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  • #31
    Roughly 4x more dangerous than sunsets.

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    • #32
      A plane crashed on 12/28/2021.

      I assume a fairly capable plane.
      Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

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      • #33
        Common sense sometimes needs a little nudge from a friend.

        Did a quick charter to Victoria, British Columbia in a 172. On my return my home airport on the Straits of Juan De Fuca was down to special VFR minimums. As I crossed the city of Victoria the fog was developing fast so I got down on the water, put out some flaps and slowed to about 60. The next thing I know a 185 on floats passes me doing maybe 120. The visibility was down to less than a half mile. He was an amphib, and landed and was taxiing to his hanger by the time I got back. I went over and talked to him. I suggested that next time he slowed down especially with the visibility dropped really low. Why he asked. Well there are lots of freighters/tankers coming into the straits and they stop at my home town to pick up a pilot and they are all 200 ft above the water line, we were both down to 50ft, and at 120 you might not have time to see and avoid. He said "oh my god I didn't even think of that".

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        • #34
          Originally posted by 3WE View Post
          A plane crashed on 12/28/2021.

          I assume a fairly capable plane.
          The audio is terrifying.

          --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
          --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

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          • #35
            Originally posted by Gabriel View Post

            The audio is terrifying.
            and rather uninformative.

            I read gossip that the weather at the field was OK, with hard, windy IMC closer to the hills.

            Obvious speculation is severe disorientation from a brief ‘distraction’, possibly while hand flying in sudden IMC.
            Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

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            • #36
              Originally posted by 3WE View Post

              and rather uninformative.

              I read gossip that the weather at the field was OK, with hard, windy IMC closer to the hills.

              Obvious speculation is severe disorientation from a brief ‘distraction’, possibly while hand flying in sudden IMC.
              The audio has a part that is quite informative (although not conclusive) and the last part is extremely sad and emotionally troubling. Such last part was cut in some versions of the audio, understandable, I suppose either for respect to the deceased and their loved ones or to "protect" the audience from a traumatic experience.

              The first part, more informative, has the following elements:

              They were on an RNAV approach from the North to RWY 17.(so basically a straight in)
              When they got the field on sight they requested to cancel IFR and to land on 27 right, which was granted. That required a 270 left (or 3 90s).(at night in mountainous terrain so no good horizon in a not very well lit area and with clouds on top so no stars or moon either)
              At some point the pilot asks the tower to increase the intensity of the runway lights, to what the controller replies that they were at 100% already. This may be an indication that they were into and out of IMC.
              The way that the communication changes suddenly from normal communication to screams of terror makes me think that it was a sudden loss of control, which would be more consistent with a stall scenario than spatial disorientation.

              --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
              --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

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              • #37
                Wind shear?

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                • #38
                  Originally posted by Gabriel
                  ***a stall scenario***
                  I would have expected to hear a stall warning if that were the case.

                  Plus, how could any licensed commercial pilot pull up so much as to cause an inadvertent stall? I mean that’s so Uber basic, it’s hard to fathom…then again, keeping proper attitudes and SA in IMC is kinda basic, too.

                  I guess we’ll have to wait for the final report.
                  Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

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                  • #39
                    Originally posted by 3WE View Post
                    I would have expected to hear a stall warning if that were the case.
                    That's a good point. I think the Learjet has a stickshaker. I don't how well it would come through the pilot's hot mic.

                    Plus, how could any licensed commercial pilot pull up so much as to cause an inadvertent stall?
                    How? No autothrottle, aiming to keep Vref which is the speed for the FINAL approach when you don't need to turn anymore, yet turning, looking too much outside whole circling VFR at night with marginal weather and, trying to find the runway that is coming into and out of sight and at the same time trying to thread the flight path through the narrow gap between 2 hills at both sides of the final approach whose peaks are above you.

                    --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
                    --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Originally posted by Evan View Post
                      Wind shear?
                      The wind was reported variable direction a 5 knots... that was on the field. It could have been different 800 ft AGL, especially in mountainous terrain.

                      So I vote for 3we's proposal, let's wait for the final report.

                      --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
                      --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Originally posted by Gabriel View Post
                        How? No autothrottle, aiming to keep Vref which is the speed for the FINAL approach when you don't need to turn anymore, yet turning, looking too much outside whole circling VFR at night with marginal weather and, trying to find the runway that is coming into and out of sight and at the same time trying to thread the flight path through the narrow gap between 2 hills at both sides of the final approach whose peaks are above you.
                        Yeah, at least it’s not a beautiful sunny afternoon, nor 36,000 feet fat dumb and happy (except for warnings).

                        I’m hard pressed to say wind shear, Delta-191 style, BUT some turbulence/speed fluctuation could certainly been a contributing factor.
                        Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

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                        • #42
                          Originally posted by Gabriel View Post
                          That's a good point. I think the Learjet has a stickshaker. I don't how well it would come through the pilot's hot mic.



                          How? No autothrottle, aiming to keep Vref which is the speed for the FINAL approach when you don't need to turn anymore, yet turning, looking too much outside whole circling VFR at night with marginal weather and, trying to find the runway that is coming into and out of sight and at the same time trying to thread the flight path through the narrow gap between 2 hills at both sides of the final approach whose peaks are above you.
                          Oh, Learjet. We've seen this before. Initial approach on the runway with ILS, then quick bendy maneuver to the desired runway heading without appropriate airspeed to accommodate the Lear tendency to fall out of the sky during steep low speed banks. Was that Teterboro? Throw in a sudden loss of 5-10kts relative wind during the heading change. Or just wait for the final report.

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                          • #43
                            Originally posted by Evan View Post
                            Or just wait for the final report.
                            Fixed !

                            If it 'ain't broken........ Don't try to mend it !

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                            • #44
                              Originally posted by Evan View Post
                              Throw in a sudden loss of 5-10kts relative wind during the heading change.
                              Are you Don Moore?
                              Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

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                              • #45
                                By the way…wait for the final report is not a literal statement on an ass-hat parlour talk discussion forum. It’s really only valid when there’s more than one likely theory but the data needed to distinguish between the theories probably won’t be available till then.

                                There are data pointing to speed decay and the need for tight maneuvering.

                                By the way, I don’t like to compare this to Teterboro. Teterboro was gross airmanship, high speed, during the day in wide open terrain…

                                This seems much more precise, carefully controlled, challenging and tight with one final, small misjudgement/insidious neglect.
                                Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

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