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China Eastern 737 Down in Guangxi

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  • #31
    Originally posted by Gabriel View Post
    He says the exact opposite to that. Watch again.


    Where? I look at the plot and I don't see it even when I actively try to.
    You’re right. It wasn’t on Brancolirio but elsewhere. Anyway, as I said, it
    can’t be possible. Forget about the erroneous climb thing. But the jack screw theory is separate from that.

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    • #32
      Originally posted by Wikipedia
      According to the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), contact with the aircraft was lost over the city of Wuzhou.[6] At 14:22 (06:22 UTC), while approaching its top of descent into Guangzhou, the aircraft entered a sudden steep descent from 29,100 feet (8,900 m). It briefly levelled off and climbed up from 7,400 ft (2,300 m) 8,600 ft (2,600 m), but plunged downwards again, reaching a final recorded altitude of 3,225 ft (983 m) less than two minutes after the beginning of the descent, with a maximum descent rate of nearly 31,000 feet (9,400 m) per minute, according to flight data recorded by Flightradar24.[7]
      I don't know where that's coming from.

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      • #33


        didn't China ban flightrader24 back in 2021?

        Comment


        • #34
          Another thing that has to be taken in to consideration, and hasn’t been mentioned yet- What about a suicide attempt by either the pilot or the co-pilot? Sad to have to think about, but at this point a possibility non-the-less?

          Comment


          • #35
            Originally posted by Rick G View Post
            Another thing that has to be taken in to consideration, and hasn’t been mentioned yet- What about a suicide attempt by either the pilot or the co-pilot? Sad to have to think about, but at this point a possibility non-the-less?
            It is not impossible, except it would not be just a suicide. It would be 131 homicides + 1 suicide. If the pilot wanted to just commit suicide he could have jumped from the terrace of his hotel the night before the flight.

            --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
            --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

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            • #36
              AvHerald: "the crash site, which has two parts, part of the aircraft fell onto one side of a hill and the other part onto the other side"

              Also, one of the black boxes was found (no word on which one or its condition).

              --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
              --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

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              • #37
                Originally posted by Evan View Post
                "It briefly levelled off and climbed up from 7,400 ft (2,300 m) 8,600 ft (2,600 m)"
                I don't know where that's coming from.
                It's a little clearer on the zoom-in plot of the final 150 seconds: MU5735-final-150-seconds-Altitude-Speed-Vertical-Rate-Chart.png (1425×1031) (flightradar24.com)

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                • #38
                  Originally posted by flashcrash View Post

                  It's a little clearer on the zoom-in plot of the final 150 seconds: MU5735-final-150-seconds-Altitude-Speed-Vertical-Rate-Chart.png (1425×1031) (flightradar24.com)
                  So it changed it vertical speed from -30,000 ft/mit to +10,000 ft/min in 8 seconds. That's an average of 2.6Gs. That should not break the plane but hey, average.

                  Perhaps at that point they realized that they were in a dive and pulled up hard, perhaps 5 or 6 Gs, and broke the plane. Kind of like the Amazon Prime crash (except that they didn't pull up enough to break the plane).

                  --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
                  --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

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                  • #39
                    Originally posted by thor View Post

                    didn't China ban flightrader24 back in 2021?
                    The app was removed from Chinese app stores in early November. A few days prior, the Ministry of State Security confiscated a couple of hundred ADS-B receivers (many of which were provided by flightradar24) deeming their use to be an "illegal transfer of overseas data in violation of Chinese national security laws".

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Originally posted by Gabriel View Post
                      AvHerald: "the crash site, which has two parts, part of the aircraft fell onto one side of a hill and the other part onto the other side"

                      Also, one of the black boxes was found (no word on which one or its condition).
                      It's the CVR. I have my doubts that it will tell us anything useful.

                      The F/O had a whopping 31,769 hours. There was a second F/O in line-training with only 556 hours, observing in the jumpseat. One thing the CVR might tell us is whether those F/O's did some seat-swapping...

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                      • #41
                        Originally posted by Evan View Post

                        It's the CVR. I have my doubts that it will tell us anything useful.

                        The F/O had a whopping 31,769 hours. There was a second F/O in line-training with only 556 hours, observing in the jumpseat. One thing the CVR might tell us is whether those F/O's did some seat-swapping...
                        The CVR can be very revealing in many ways.
                        It can confirm or discard (or be inconclusive) regarding the murdercide hypothesis.
                        It can reveal alarm or other noises that happen at the time of the initial upset.
                        It can have the voice of the pilots talking about the problem.
                        Etc...

                        --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
                        --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Originally posted by Gabriel View Post

                          The CVR can be very revealing in many ways.
                          It can confirm or discard (or be inconclusive) regarding the murdercide hypothesis.
                          It can reveal alarm or other noises that happen at the time of the initial upset.
                          It can have the voice of the pilots talking about the problem.
                          Etc...
                          Maybe... but methinks whatever happened here was too sudden for any expressable situational awareness.

                          Originally posted by Flashcrash
                          It's a little clearer on the zoom-in plot of the final 150 seconds: MU5735-final-150-seconds-Altitude-Speed-Vertical-Rate-Chart.png (1425×1031) (flightradar24.com)
                          Whoa, this changes things...

                          So, we have a sudden upset, a severe dive from FL29 to around 17,000ft, and THEN, over the next 50 seconds, a recovery, an arrested descent and even a climb of about 1000ft... and then ANOTHER sudden upset resulting in a fatal dive.

                          Definitely not like Atlas Air or the other somatogravic illusion pilot error crashes we have seen.

                          The second 'upset' could conceivably be structural failure, or a resumption/repeat of whatever caused the first one.

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                          • #43
                            Originally posted by Rick G View Post
                            Another thing that has to be taken in to consideration, and that has been mentioned very widely, including post #4 on this thread: What about a suicide attempt by either the pilot or the co-pilot? Sad to have to think about, but at this point a possibility non-the-less?
                            Fixed.
                            Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

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                            • #44
                              Originally posted by Evan View Post

                              So, we have a sudden upset, a severe dive from FL29 to around 17,000ft, and THEN, over the next 50 seconds, a recovery, an arrested descent and even a climb of about 1000ft... and then ANOTHER sudden upset resulting in a fatal dive.
                              I think the initial dive ends at 8,000ft actually. What's the FL the PF would go to in the event of a sudden loss of cabin pressure?

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                              • #45
                                Originally posted by flashcrash View Post

                                I think the initial dive ends at 8,000ft actually. What's the FL the PF would go to in the event of a sudden loss of cabin pressure?
                                10,000 or the minimum safe enroute altitude for the area, whichever is greater.

                                --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
                                --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

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