Air France plane missing?

[CotterPin]

Explosive Decompression Possible

It's possible that some sort of explosive decompression resulted during the flight.

Had this occurred at 35,000 feet, the crew might have been incapacitated within seconds, negating the possibility of taking any action or declaring an emergency.

Though, given the "APPARENT" speed with which radar contact was lost , this leads to some sort of decompression / structural failure possibility, with the craft having broken up during flight.


Lightning strikes, and extreme turbulence could all be contributing factors. Either way, with the French now reporting that the plane was likely lost and there are no survivors they obviously know more than they're saying.

Even through lightning strikes are rare, they do have the possibility of downing ANY craft.

Imagine a: 1 in 10-million chance that a lightning strike hits the cockpit, explodes the windscreen, and incapacitates the crew instantly, then dissipating through the rest of the airframe. It's a hypothetical that is extraordinarily rare, but possible nonetheless.

[Diamond Bob]

The two most serious crashes in recent years, AA 587 and this one today, involved Airbus 300 series aircraft. In both cases, composites may have had a role in the accident. AA 587 was an A300 in which the vertical tail separated due to the failure of composite attachment lugs. This crash today, while we certainly don't know the causes yet, could be related to the behavior of composites in lightning conditions or even the structural strength of the aircraft in turbulence. I'm thinking that we will see further discussion of the safety of composites as a result of this accident.

[KitFrench]

The two most serious crashes in recent years, AA 587 and this one today, involved Airbus 300 series aircraft. In both cases, composites may have had a role in the accident. AA 587 was an A300 in which the vertical tail separated due to the failure of composite attachment lugs. This crash today, while we certainly don't know the causes yet, could be related the behavior of composites in lightning conditions or even the structural strength of the aircraft in turbulence. I'm thinking that we will see further discussion of the safety of composites as a result of this accident.

I thought that AA 587, although highlighting flaws in training was due to the First officers exaggerated inputs on the rudder, which caused the rudder to separate?

[CotterPin]

I thought that AA 587, although highlighting flaws in training was due to the First officers exaggerated inputs on the rudder, which caused the rudder to separate?

You are correct.

[Gabriel]

The two most serious crashes in recent years, AA 587 and this one today, involved Airbus 300 series aircraft. In both cases, composites may have had a role in the accident. AA 587 was an A300 in which the vertical tail separated due to the failure of composite attachment lugs. This crash today, while we certainly don't know the causes yet, could be related the behavior of composites in lightning conditions or even the structural strength of the aircraft in turbulence. I'm thinking that we will see further discussion of the safety of composites as a result of this accident.

It's very rare for me to say this, but...

... you have no clue what you are talking about.

To begin with, this crash did not involve an A-300 series. It was an A-330 and it's the first fatal accident with this type in airline service.

To go on, what happened to AA 587:
As you've said, the fin separated WHEN (not "due to" as you say) the composites attachment failed BECAUSE the tail was subject to a solicitation that was well in excess of the certification standards requirement and design loads DUE TO the flying pilot appying alterantively full rudder deflection from side to side BECAUSE OF poor upset recovery training, pilot's tendency to over-use the rudder, and a rudder system (travel and force required to move it) that made PIO (pilot-induced oscilations) likely to occur.

As you've said, this crash we don't know yet. As you've said, it could be something related to the composites.
Or it could be something related with the electrical system.
Or it could be something related with the flight controls.
Or it could be something related with turbulence.
Or it could be something related with a loss of pressurization.
Or it could be something related with a structural failure.
Or it could be something related with a terrorist act.
Or it could be something related with spacial dissorientation and loss of control.
Or it could be something related with the flight instruments.
Or it could be something related with a fuel explosion a'la TWA.
Or it could be suicide.

There is absolutely nothing by now that makes an issue with the composites a preferred causal factor over anything else.

By now, it could be anything imaginable.

Do you want to speculate about the composites? Good, I'm fine with that and I actually support speculation. Just don't use the the AA 587 case as a precedent, please.

[eTang]

Though, given the "APPARENT" speed with which radar contact was lost , {...}

From what I understand the airplane was out of any radar-surveyed area anyway. [too far out/away from any costal brazilian radar, not yet close enough to Africa for any of their radar] Allthough I do not know wether brazilian air force would operate some airbound (AWACS like) radar also over the sea?

What about the radar discremination of airplanes from other signals, ie heavy thunderstorm?

[CotterPin]

The two most serious crashes in recent years, AA 587 and this one today, involved Airbus 300 series aircraft. In both cases, composites may have had a role in the accident. AA 587 was an A300 in which the vertical tail separated due to the failure of composite attachment lugs. This crash today, while we certainly don't know the causes yet, could be related to the behavior of composites in lightning conditions or even the structural strength of the aircraft in turbulence. I'm thinking that we will see further discussion of the safety of composites as a result of this accident.

Yes, composites and crew inputs were responsible for AA 587's demise.

Carbon composites behave somewhat different than aluminum. It is not as conductive, however composites have been used in aviation for decades now, and it's likely that there have been thousands of lightning strikes to composite crafted airframes and components during that time.

I doubt anything shocking will be learned about carbon composites, per se, as a material. The effect of a lightning strike to carbon vs. aluminum are relatively widely understood.

Both materials have pros and cons when compared to one another, and when used together. Carbon does not "love" to be mated to aluminum and galvanic corrosion is the result, but that has little to do with what likely took place with this flight (Lets hope!!!!!!).

In short, composites are very safe, and certainly outshine aluminum and even titanium for many applications. However, as with any material there are always lessons to be learned. Who knows at this point, other than something went terribly wrong.

[Eric Diffoot]

Timeline of events...from this, something really bad happen in 4 minutes.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090601/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/brazil_plane_timeline

Timeline of disappearance of Air France jet


By The Associated Press The Associated Press – 17 mins ago
Timeline of events surrounding the disappearance of Air France Flight 447 from Rio de Janeiro to Paris, according to Air France, Brazilian Air Force. All times in Brazilian local time:

• 7:03 p.m. Sunday: Air France says plane left Rio de Janeiro. Brazilian Air Force says plane left at 7:30 p.m.

• 10:30 p.m. Sunday: Air France says plane has last contact with Brazil air traffic control. Brazilian Air Force says last radio contact at 10:33 p.m., 351 miles (565 kilometers) from northeastern Brazilian city of Natal.

• 10:48 p.m.: Brazilian Air Force says last radar contact with Brazil indicated plane flying normally.

• 11 p.m. Sunday: Air France says plane entered zone of storms and high turbulence.

• 11:14 p.m. Sunday: Air France receives automatic message indicating electrical circuit malfunction.

• 11:20 p.m. Sunday: Brazilian Air Force says plane fails to make previously scheduled radio contact with Brazil. Brazil notifies air traffic control in Dakar, Senegal.

• 2-3 a.m Monday: Air France says French military radar begins searching for plane.

• 2:30 a.m. Monday: Brazilian Air Force says it mounts search and rescue mission with two planes.

• 4:30 am Monday: Air France says it sets up crisis center.

• 6:15 a.m. Monday: Plane's scheduled arrival in Paris, according to Air France.

• 8:30 a.m. Monday: Brazilian Air Force says it was told by Air France about the message the plane sent to the company. The message indicated technical problems, including a loss of pressure and an electrical system failure, Brazilian Air Force says.

(This version CORRECTS time conversions on times provided by Air France )


People look at the arrivals screen showing Air France flight AF447 as "delayed" at Charles de Gaulle airport near Paris June 1, 2009.
REUTERS/Gonzalo Fuentes (FRANCE DISASTER TRANSPORT)

[B757300]

CNN has been using this image all afternoon, without credit of course.

[AVION1]

CNN has been using this image all afternoon, without credit of course.

Lawsuit, anyone?

[AVION1]

Spain is sending some SAR aircraft from Canary Islands, also Brazil is searching the area around the island of Fernando, after the air force determined this is the last point of radar "contact".

[Gabriel]

Yes, composites and crew inputs were responsible for AA 587's demise.

No, no, no!
For God's sake! Please read the accident report. It's freely available at www.ntsb.gov.

Absolutely nowhere the composites are to blame! The structure failed at loads where it was DESIGNED to fail. Had it been aluminium and designed to withstand the same loads it would have failed too.

[arjenp]

Lawsuit, anyone?

His name is on the photo now.

[AVION1]

It's possible that some sort of explosive decompression resulted during the flight.

Had this occurred at 35,000 feet, the crew might have been incapacitated within seconds, negating the possibility of taking any action or declaring an emergency.

Though, given the "APPARENT" speed with which radar contact was lost , this leads to some sort of decompression / structural failure possibility, with the craft having broken up during flight.


Lightning strikes, and extreme turbulence could all be contributing factors. Either way, with the French now reporting that the plane was likely lost and there are no survivors they obviously know more than they're saying.

Even through lightning strikes are rare, they do have the possibility of downing ANY craft.

Imagine a: 1 in 10-million chance that a lightning strike hits the cockpit, explodes the windscreen, and incapacitates the crew instantly, then dissipating through the rest of the airframe. It's a hypothetical that is extraordinarily rare, but possible nonetheless.

What about large size hail?..some radars can not detect large hail. At 35,000 Ft you can find baseball-size hail, pretty large and massive, specially in the Atlantic Ocean, from Cumulus Nimbus clouds with tops located at 50,000 Ft..!!

[Optimus Prime]

I think it is a bit too early to begin to place theories on structures and materials given the information provided to date.... lets focus on what we do now and give it some time before we start pulling causes out of our @ss