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  • TheKiecker
    replied
    Gabriel just aaaaaaabsoulutely destroyed Brian.

    Internet message board GOLD.

    Leave a comment:


  • Gabriel
    replied
    Originally posted by busfan View Post
    Do FDR's record TCAS events
    Yes, absolutely.

    and if so, would the incoming missile @ 700 kg trigger TCAS?
    I doubt it. The TCAS detects the transponder of the other airplane, and I very much doubt that a SAM would be fitted with a mode A, C or S civil-aviation-type transponder.

    Obviously evasion would have been impossible, but it would provide one more documented piece of evidence that the plane was downed by a missile.
    That will come for the analysis of the wreckage. Signs of high-energy piercing in the outside-inside direction would be a clear evidence of an explosion outside of the plane.

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  • ATLcrew
    replied
    Originally posted by Evan View Post

    Which brings up some key questions: is it reasonable that the rebels could know how to target and launch such a complex system without Russian advisors? Or were these seperatists trained ex-Ukranian military personnel and familiar with the system? Or is it fairly simple to launch but complex to target? Or can the system be confgured to self launch upon detecting a target?
    The SA-11 system exists in numerous flavors, both with regards to hardware and software. Some of them do have self-launch capability within certain parameters. I won't speculate which exact iteration was used here.

    Leave a comment:


  • retox
    replied
    There would have been NO visual on MH17

    Ignoring the fact that it was overcast, there still could have been no visual on MH17 unless it came from someone positioned miles away from the alleged launch site.

    The BUK variant that appears in so many photos as "the one" (9k37) can BEGIN tracking a target at 53 miles. It has a firing range of 20 miles @ 1900 mph. (Jane's)

    The impact site appears to be roughly 10 miles out from the launch site. Given the speed of the aircraft headed East + the speed of the missile headed North-West (2300+mph) combined with the continued trajectory of the debris as it continued forward and fell from FL330, the launch vehicle was at least 13 miles away and 6+ miles below MH17 when the missile left (14.3+ miles line of sight). Add the launch sequence time of 22 seconds and it's safe to assume 14+ miles away (15+ miles line of sight)... with low visibility.

    The BUK does NOT, in independent mode, give the operator any indication that this would have been commercial.

    Simple math says they shot blind.

    Leave a comment:


  • busfan
    replied
    Tcas?

    Do FDR's record TCAS events and if so, would the incoming missile @ 700 kg trigger TCAS?

    Obviously evasion would have been impossible, but it would provide one more documented piece of evidence that the plane was downed by a missile.

    That is assuming that looters haven't already compromised the CDR and FDR

    BF

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  • retox
    replied
    Originally posted by Gabriel View Post
    ...the red and blue stripes and the word Malaysian.
    A portion of the world believes (as Russian state media has suggested) that this was an attempt Putin's plane (by Ukraine and/or the US) which was rumored to be in that area around the same time and looks strikingly (no pun intended) similar.



    The story is, at best, questionable BUT, there are enough people in the world (including in the US) who are inclined to favor Putin and believe an anti-US conspiracy suggestion that Obama was behind it.

    Indian news organizations are among several giving credibility to this argument.http://news.oneindia.in/india/mh17-m...t-1485924.html

    Leave a comment:


  • Observer
    replied
    Alternative scenario

    Is there a chance that we have a "Pan Am Lockerbie" like scenario here?

    Leave a comment:


  • AVION1
    replied
    Looting is being reported at the crash site. People are stealing cash, jewelry and cell phones.

    Leave a comment:


  • Gabriel
    replied
    Originally posted by brianw999 View Post
    2. Russian separatists DELIBERATELY fired the missile/s in order to shoot down what they KNEW was a civilian aircraft.
    They KNEW it was a civilian aircraft?

    Not even the most anti-Rusians and ant-spearatists sources say so. Even the audio that is claimed to be itercepted communications between the rebels and the Russians regarding the shotdown put this as a misidentification. They first say they shot down an Antonov transport plane, then they realize that the bodies are civilians, including women and children, that the goods aboard are typical of civilians, not military, and finally the red and blue stripes and the word Malaysian.

    Leave a comment:


  • retox
    replied
    Originally posted by brianw999 View Post
    You fire a missile at an aircraft flying at 33,000 feet that is transmitting identifying data showing it to be a civil aircraft flying in a civil aviation air route......and you're SURPRISED when you find that you've murdered 295 civilians ?!!!.
    Yes, the BUK system is designed as such. "The Buk system was originally designed to defend advancing columns of ground troops from air attack, says Steve Zaloga, an expert on missile systems at the Teal Group, a defense-consulting firm in Virginia. Because of its purpose as a tactical weapon designed to support frontline troops, it is not connected to national air defense networks and can be operated independently, using its own radar systems, Zaloga says.The missile operators sit inside a very cramped launch vehicle looking at a basic radar screen that shows the various objects the system is tracking. But without the larger network, that information has very little in the way of context. That explains why its operators may not have had enough information to distinguish the civilian airliner from a military threat. “This definitely could have been an error,” Zaloga says... Pietrucha says that the Buk variant that is likely to have been operated by the rebels might have been especially unable to distinguish between civilian and military air traffic because of a quirk related to aircraft transponders. The transponder is a device that broadcasts an aircraft’s identity when a radar “interrogates” it for information.Military and civilian aircraft often use the same transponder modes and therefore that signal is not used as a “discriminator” for a military targeting system, Pietrucha says. The system has to be tied into the national air traffic control system to use that information effectively."http://www.technologyreview.com/news...ource=facebook


    You don't need anything more high tech than a computer or iPad loaded with software such as Planefinder to see real time information about the aircraft above you.
    And a data network which, according to a friend of mine from Ukraine, "is avaialable 4G but at a cost of over $6000 US/month for unlimited". Without mobile, you have to assume actual communication between the crew and a remote source. Just look at KAL007 to see what TRAINED Russian communications look like in a situation like this.

    The separatists took a pot luck shot at an unidentified target and committed murder in the process. That to me makes it a war crime. That's not collateral damage, that's "I couldn't give a shit about anyone else" murder. The only transport aircraft that the Ukrainians have is the 4 engined IL76 which at 33,000 feet leaves 4 distinct contrails. A Boeing 777 is a 2 engined jet that leaves 2 distinct contrails. Very different visually. It doesn't really matter where the missile truck originated from, it was fired by the separatists.
    All indications from their own posts on social media and intercepted communications indicate that the rebels:

    1. Visually identified a transport in the area at a lower altitude (the BUK either followed the heat signature of the larger target OR the visual did not match the target entered to the BUK control panel.) I'm trying to find this article to cite it.

    2. Russian airspace was (hours before) closed just 30 or so miles away and they would have some (limited) reason to believe that commercial traffic should not be there. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...mh17.html?_r=0. They even were quoted after the incident "what were they doing in a war zone, fuck them, they must be spys".

    2.5 MH17 was at FL330. Airspace below FL320 was closed. 1000 feet, sure, THAT sounds like enough margin of error.

    3. MH17 diverted to avoid a nearby storm and it was apparantly overcast. Supported in photos of the actual missile trail (released by thr rebels on KV - Russian Facebook).http://m.theepochtimes.com/n3/805200...s-mh17-photos/

    4. They released a story saying they hit a transport. Social media and Russian news. They believed that is what they hit.http://translate.google.com/translat...html&sandbox=1

    5. Intercepted comms between rebels in the aftermath clearly indicate surprise (all the way up to Igor Strelkov) that it was commercial. It was an "oh fuck, what did we do" moment.http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/07...ng-at-russian/

    6. It was like 4pm, I'm sure some alcohol was involved because Russia.

    I agree that they should be held accountable but it does truly appear to be a horrible error.

    One can only hope that this becomes a "Tenerife moment" and that air traffic is forever rerouted away from hot war zones. With the excpetion of a few responsible airlines, we clearly can not count on them all to prioritize safety unless they are forced.

    Leave a comment:


  • Jpmkam
    replied
    Originally posted by brianw999 View Post
    That statement is out of order. All he asked for was for this forum to back away from all the political hatred and spin doctoring that is going on. What has he lied about. An apology is expected.

    The facts as they are known at the moment by the West are....

    1. Putins regime supplied the missiles.

    2. Russian separatists DELIBERATELY fired the missile/s in order to shoot down what they KNEW was a civilian aircraft. They INTENDED TO DO IT. This is the difference between the Iranian shoot down by the USN and this Ukrainian incident. The US Navy did not INTEND to shoot down a civilian aircraft.

    3. Because of the intent in this latest act this makes the separatist leadership, commanders, call them what you will and Putin by association as the supplier of the weapons, complicit in a war crime. As such they should be taken to The Hague and charged with this crime. Now, getting Putin to The Hague isn't going to happen but you can bet your boots that he'll offer up some sacrificial goats. Failing that there is a good chance that gunshots will be heard in some remote forest signalling the end of those involved in this war crime.

    The voices of 295 dead innocents MUST be heard.
    Thanks for your post. But I guess I need to "man-up" when I post from now on. There must be some macho code I need to brush up on when I post on to meet ATFS_Crash's criteria.

    Leave a comment:


  • brianw999
    replied
    Originally posted by ATFS_Crash
    His statement as well as yours is out of order. You're both playing dishonest and hypocritical politics.

    You have a long history of dishonest hateful hypocritical political rants, unfounded personal attacks, racist comments, immature vulgar/lewd comments, etc. For a moderator you are uncivilized and setting a bad example.


    You both and many others ought to apologize, but I don't expect apologies.



    Your and his assertions are hateful, dishonest and hypocritical. You two are making hateful, dishonest and hypocritical political spin. The crash is related to politics, war and terrorism; they are related to the topic, therefore on-topic.



    You are jumping to conclusions. You are playing politics. You are hypocritically and dishonestly spinning politics.

    Some of what you are touting as "facts"; hasn't been confirmed, is speculative and some is outright false.



    While the missiles were designed and probably manufactured in Russia. At this point it is not publicly clear how the missiles were obtained. It's not clear if Russia knowingly and directly supplied the missiles to pro-Russian rebels.

    By some accounts pro-Russian rebels boasted that they had stolen a SA-11 from the Ukraine. So it's not clear to me at this time, if the rocket launcher involved in the attack was stolen from Ukraine or if it was supplied by the Putin regime. The pro-Russian rebels boasts they had stolen the SA-11 from the Ukraine, might have been a cover story to hide that Putin regime is supplying high technology and heavy weapons to pro-Russian rebels.



    They deliberately shot down the plane, but they didn't necessarily know ahead of time that it was an airliner. It could be just a pro-Russian rebel cover story, but allegedly pro-Russian rebels boasted on the Internet that they had shot down a Ukrainian transport aircraft. The alleged intercepted cell phone conversations, seem to suggest that pro-Russian rebels had thought they shot down a transport and were surprised that they had shot down a civilian airliner.

    http://youtu.be/BbyZYgSXdyw



    You seem to be jumping to conclusions. While I agree that the Putin regime are war criminals, it's not clear to what degree.

    If it is true that rocket launchers, black boxes and other evidence involved in the shootdown are being harbored, tempered with and or destroyed by the Putin regime; then they are guilty of covering up war crimes. Which would imply a much deeper guilt. There's a good chance that Russian troops, Russian advisers and/or Russian technicians operated and/or assisted with the missile attack on the airliner. That's probably why the Russian media and Russian government seems to be so busy trying to obfuscate evidence and provide misinformation. IE: allegedly editing/censoring Wikipedia. Bogus news reports. Etc.


    That's my point. You and others like you seem to be working against it to some extent; by providing misinformation, trying to suppress facts, and contrary opinions.
    You seem to like calling me a racist ? That is something that I can never be accused of. Give examples.

    You have a long history of dishonest hateful hypocritical political rants, unfounded personal attacks, racist comments, immature vulgar/lewd comments, etc. For a moderator you are uncivilized and setting a bad example.
    Pot calling the kettle black ? That describes you to a "T". The only bit that doesn't apply is the last sentence. Thankfully you aren't a moderator.

    They deliberately shot down the plane, but they didn't necessarily know ahead of time that it was an airliner. It could be just a pro-Russian rebel cover story, but allegedly pro-Russian rebels boasted on the Internet that they had shot down a Ukrainian transport aircraft. The alleged intercepted cell phone conversations, seem to suggest that pro-Russian rebels had thought they shot down a transport and were surprised that they had shot down a civilian airliner.
    Oh come on ! You fire a missile at an aircraft flying at 33,000 feet that is transmitting identifying data showing it to be a civil aircraft flying in a civil aviation air route......and you're SURPRISED when you find that you've murdered 295 civilians ?!!! You don't need anything more high tech than a computer or iPad loaded with software such as Planefinder to see real time information about the aircraft above you.
    The separatists took a pot luck shot at an unidentified target and committed murder in the process. That to me makes it a war crime. That's not collateral damage, that's "I couldn't give a shit about anyone else" murder. The only transport aircraft that the Ukrainians have is the 4 engined IL76 which at 33,000 feet leaves 4 distinct contrails. A Boeing 777 is a 2 engined jet that leaves 2 distinct contrails. Very different visually. It doesn't really matter where the missile truck originated from, it was fired by the separatists.

    Everything else I said was taken from last nights BBC news. If you think that's wrong then you can tell them that via this link... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/21937779

    And finally...
    That's my point. You and others like you seem to be working against it to some extent; by providing misinformation, trying to suppress facts, and contrary opinions.
    Precisely the opposite actually. What I and others are trying to do is force the truth to the surface.
    Last edited by brianw999; 2014-07-19, 12:21.

    Leave a comment:


  • retox
    replied
    As to the question of "did they know it was a commercial plane". Here's an excellent piece on how the BUK is perfectly designed to mistake the two. Just add drunk Russians.

    http://www.technologyreview.com/news...ource=facebook

    Further, they claimed to have shot down a military transport at the same time.

    And don't forget the intercepted conversations the rebels had in the aftermath. They clearly were pissed that it was civilian even stating , "fuck them, they shouldn't fucking be flying here,this is a awr zone, they must be spys."

    This was not deliberate. Unless, of course you believe the other side (Ukraine or US did it for political gain). Not a conspiracy nut - that is what Russian media is reporting.

    Leave a comment:


  • Evan
    replied
    Originally posted by brianw999 View Post
    The aircraft, a large twin engined jet that does not bear any resemblance to any military aircraft operated by the Ukraine was flying at FL 330 in a very well known civil aviation air corridor, complying with Ukrainian ATC flight instructions along with other airlines doing the same thing.
    Some numb nuts country yokel fires a sophisticated missile up there. There's only one thing he's going to hit. Someone usurped their authority basically because they were in an "I've got a new toy and I want to use it NOW !" scenario and fired off a missile. Recordings of conversations released since the war crime was committed seem to show that the separatists knew what they were doing.

    I also jumped the gun back there and assumed the AA system came from Russia. It now appears that it was siezed by the rebels from Ukraine forces. But this only makes it more dangerous. If the Russians had supplied it they would have also supplied the crew trained to operate it. A big part of that training is target acquisition and identification. A gang of yokels is not going to have a clue how to distinguish targets.

    Which brings up some key questions: is it reasonable that the rebels could know how to target and launch such a complex system without Russian advisors? Or were these seperatists trained ex-Ukranian military personnel and familiar with the system? Or is it fairly simple to launch but complex to target? Or can the system be confgured to self launch upon detecting a target? In any case, I feel pretty confident they were not intentionally targeting a foriegn civilian aircraft that posed no threat, especially when downing it would only destroy support for their cause.

    Whatever the case, the fact that the launcher came from Ukraine does not absolve Russia in the least. They (Putin really) instigated this violence as part of their proxy war against the west and in so doing destabilized the region and caused a large number of lethal weapons to fall into unsecure hands.

    If you leave a loaded pistol on the kitchen table and it falls into the hands of a five year old and he shoots his brother with it, it's not the five year old who is at fault.

    Originally posted by sjwk
    If this is all true, then the site has surely been compromised and it's going to make things many times harder for those investigating?
    I think the investigation probably already has all the evidence it needs. The US satellite tracking data will clearly show the point of launch, the track of the missile and the heat signature of the impact. And then there are those intercepted communications. That is some damning testimony. We don't need the FDR or CVR to determine the cause of this disaster. We don't need a full investigation to prevent another occurence.

    Leave a comment:


  • tsv
    replied
    Originally posted by brianw999 View Post
    One thing to be said for your post TSV.....it is probably one of the most reasonably written posts on this thread. Let's keep this on topic from now on. Yes, there is a degree of political comment that is appropriate here, and TSV has nailed how to do that but that does not extend to some of the tin foil hat attacks that have appeared here. Moderation will be used from now on if necessary.
    Thanks Brian

    I sense we have different perspectives on this, at least at the Political level, but there is no doubt we agree it is a very sad and tragic event. Nobody involved in this War or this shooting down has gained gained anything, much has been lost and yet more is at stake.

    I wish for a speedy end to the War and a fair Investigation into the Shooting Down of MH17 but am not optimistic about either. It seems the Investigators are not getting unrestricted access to the site which suggests Politics is again getting in the way.

    Leave a comment:

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