Nepal plane crash: Aircraft bursts into flames at Kathmandu airport

[Schwartz]

Do NOT tell me this:



And THEN tell me this:



AND, do NOT tell me that:

We SUDDENLY switch from a professional gal on course to a dude who Evan thinks needs toxicological tests (I agree), who flies all over the place, talks in a very calm voice and then crashes with no distress call, and that the explanation is that he's not good with English? (or tired or on drugs/EtOH)? And we might as well say it's a meteor?

And I know that a lot of Indians are still doing arranged marriages and stuff, but I'm thinking they may have heard of CRM...where the professional acting gal should be able to assist with English, or fatigue or drugs or sudden medical issue...I'm thinking that if an Indian airline is going to let a girl drive, it's gotten beyond some older expectations of sex roles.



So what happened to Flygirl? I guess there's nothing unusual about her disappearance from the ATC tapes.

One of the interesting things to me is there was a video of the plane on in question executing a go-around immediately prior to the crash, I am very curious where in the ATC dialog that occurred.

[3WE]

Do NOT tell me this:

At this point the cause of the crash could have been a meteorite.

And THEN tell me this:

I love the kind of fact-based speculation that you mention.

AND, do NOT tell me that:

We SUDDENLY switch from a professional gal on course to a dude who Evan thinks needs toxicological tests (I agree), who flies all over the place, talks in a very calm voice and then crashes with no distress call, and that the explanation is that he's not good with English? (or tired or on drugs/EtOH)? And we might as well say it's a meteor?

And I know that a lot of Indians are still doing arranged marriages and stuff, but I'm thinking they may have heard of CRM...where the professional acting gal should be able to assist with English, or fatigue or drugs or sudden medical issue...I'm thinking that if an Indian airline is going to let a girl drive, it's gotten beyond some older expectations of sex roles.

Excuse me Captain, you seem to be having a medical issue and flying all over the place, please give me the airplane...ummm tower, we have a problem.(The bold part should be audible on tower tapes.)

So what happened to Flygirl? I guess there's nothing unusual about her disappearance from the ATC tapes.

[Gabriel]

We have 2 different voices in the cockpit and 3 different voices in the tower (and in both places the ladies seem quite more professional that the gentlemen). Both the tower and the cockpit gentlemen make mistakes confusing zero-two with two-zero (I think calling it twenty is more robust and gives less opportunities for error). The guy in the cockpit makes this mistake more times that TWR, but this is not a competition. Other than these mistakes, I don't see anything too strange in the male pilot voice that cannot be explained by a strong non-native-English accent, and the mistakes can be explained by fatigue rather than alcohol or drugs.

I love the kind of fact-based speculation that you mention. Just that in this case I don't see that we have any fact (or enough facts) that can lead us to a constructive fact-based speculation.

In any event, my comment was just my personal impression and I don't have the intention (nor the power) to prevent that anybody discusses or speculates as they please, and I might get engaged in that conversation too. Feel free.

[3WE]

At this point the cause of the crash could have been a meteorite.

If you are serious, I'm worried about you.

Yeah...I'm speculating, and the final report is not in.

Conversely

Some of us use a process: 1) Look at the facts, 2) Consider theories that are consistent with the facts. 3) Discuss. (That's discuss, not declare)

Sometimes speculation is weak...737 runs off the right side of the runway...failure of the right main shimmy damper.

Sometimes your odds are better: Private pilot enters cloud...exits in an extreme attitude...yeah, meteor, right? And yeah, we NEVER know until the final report...could have been that a control cable broke...

So, let's speculate about a meteor. We have a woman pilot with a deep seeded fear of meteorites. She sees one and freaks out that she knows it's going to hit the plane and turns over control to the captain and curls up on the floor in the fetal position and quietly whimpers. He also knows the meteorite is going to hit the plane, knowing he is going to die, he does a quick line of cocaine and proceeds to make somewhat off-kilter, polite reponses to the tower and, one last time, enjoys the freedom of maneuvering an aircraft (to hell with the approach plate). Finally the meteor (which is small, and not seen by anyone else) clips the elevator causing an irreversible dive across the airport to taxiway Delta.

Indeed, your proposed possible cause of the crash is plausible! We better wait for the final report.

The near-total switch from by the Evan-book woman to the polite, goofy guy confusing two zero and zero two + the tower seemingly disturbed by maneuvers and you probably still argue that "something went wrong on-board" is speculative...

[Gabriel]

Sorry 3WE, that is too much speculation even for me.
I will not say "wait for the final report", but let's wait until we have some information that gives any clue.
At this point the cause of the crash could have been a meteorite.

[3WE]

Ok Gabe, you win.

We have a lot of female voices making very professional exchanges.

Then a goofy male voice takes over from the airplane and he sounds a tad impaired and confused.

We also get a male tower controller. His confusion is different: 'What the hell is this guy doing'. It sounds like worried attempts to help.

Soooo...weeks have gone by...where's a timeline? A good description of the flight path? CVR insight? Was the male voice confirmed to be THE pilot, or has someone else taken control?

AND- Do we hear a split second of commotion with both voices? Edit- that was the tower folks.

Know what- the dudes voice is so strange, it could almost be a Germanwings or terrorist intentional crash? Maybe he was a crappy pilot and intended to hit the terminal but missed?

[Evan]

I'm interested to see the blood test results. There are some serious some cognitive issues there.

[Gabriel]

[3WE]

***There is a bunch of new information in AvHerald, which adds both more clarity in some areas and not so much in others.***

[...]

Wait for the final report.

[3WE]

I was not fixed on anything, just confused.

Based on that original order of events (which is not known to be 100% accurate) your question was valid....Plane turns left, tower says, NO DON'T CHANGE RUNWAYS!...huhwuh?

Then Evan puts up two posts to address it (and you seem to not buy into my onboard problem theory until now).

Debate yes, foul no.

[Gabriel]

I think Gabriel is saying, "How can the mere initiation of a left turn (which may have happened before any discussion) tell the tower that the plane is wanting to enter a right downwind for the other runway."

Changing runway is a possibility, but that's not the only thing a left turn might indicate.

Gabriel knows that a left turn is 'a method' to change runways.

All that being said, I don't find anything here of remarkable significance, while Gabriel may be a bit more fixed on it. I believe that we don't have 'the full story' and that any number of things (or slightly different order of events) could have 'told' the tower they were thinking about 20.

I was not fixed on anything, just confused.

There is a bunch of new information in AvHerald, which adds both more clarity in some areas and not so much in others.

Apparently, the plane entered the pattern for 20 after being cleared to land on 02. TWR advised that there was another plane approaching 02 and that they cannot land on 20 and to hold there, the plane was making 360s north to the airport in a position where it would make the base leg to RWY 20. Then TWR informed that the other plane had landed and the RWY was clear, cleared the plane to land RWY 20, and asked if they had the RWY on sight. When the crew said "no", TWR cleared to land on RWY 02. The plane entered a left pattern for RWY 02 and asked if they were cleared to land, TWR affirmed. Then the plane was seen overflying the international terminal in a southwesterly direction and "lanidng" on the perpendicular TWY.

So maybe 3WE is right and something did happen in the downwind leg to RWY 02?

[3WE]

Like so?

I think Gabriel is saying, "How can the mere initiation of a left turn (which may have happened before any discussion) tell the tower that the plane is wanting to enter a right downwind for the other runway."

Changing runway is a possibility, but that's not the only thing a left turn might indicate.

Gabriel knows that a left turn is 'a method' to change runways.

All that being said, I don't find anything here of remarkable significance, while Gabriel may be a bit more fixed on it. I believe that we don't have 'the full story' and that any number of things (or slightly different order of events) could have 'told' the tower they were thinking about 20.

[3WE]

Latest comments on avherald say the plane SORT OF CRASH LANDED IN A SE DIRECTION on taxiway D which runs perpendicular to the runway AFTER PASSING LOW AND CLOSE TO THE TOWER AND TERMINAL...

Fixed, I think.

I think "landed on taxiway D" may be conveying way too much in the way of an 'intentional controlled action" as opposed to "a desperate non-ideal action or maybe even just a random occurrence".

[Schwartz]

Latest comments on avherald say the plane landed on taxiway D which runs perpendicular to the runway...

[Evan]

Tower: Do not turn towards runway 20, turn right [Uh? how can a left turn when in final approach to 02 will be an indication of going for 20?]

Like so?