2017 was remarkable for aviation safety, it was the first year where we had zero fatal accidents (and hence zero fatalities) in commercial flights in jet airplanes around the world.
Was it an outlier?
2018 closed with 556 fatalities (worse than the 5-years average of 420) in 15 accidents, including 6 in jets that accounted for the majority of the fatalities:
In Feb we had the An148 that crashed shortly after take-off into IMC with the pitots iced up (and the anti-ice off)., which killed all 71 on board.
In May we had the 737-200 that stalled and spun after taking off from Havana, killing 112 (out of the 113 on board, amazing that someone survived that).
In April we had the 737-700 engine failure where the cowling separated and ended up shattering a pax window who perished from the blunt force trauma related with having the torso sucked out of the plane and banging against the fuselage.
In September, a 737-800 touched down on the sea short of the runway. One person was initially unaccounted for and his body found by divers days later.
In October we had the 737-MAX-8 that crashed after the pilots didn't know how to work out a trim runaway caused by the spooky MCAS function, after the airline failed to fix a plane that was flying with airspeed and AoA problems for at least 3 flights, and after the crew of the previous flight, that experienced exactly the same issue than the fatal flight, failed to communicate the full extension of the problem and what they had to do to regain and maintain control of the plane and decided to continue to the destination even when the problem was evident immediately after take-off. All 181 on-board died (plus 1 diver participating in the recovery of bodies).
And in Nov a 757 returned to departure airport shortly after take-off due to hydraulic failure, extended the gear via alternate system, extended partial flaps via alternate system too, and veered off the runway on landing. The excursion was hard but in principle there were only 6 minor injuries. However, an old woman who was not among the 6 reported injured suffered a skull fracture during the evacuation (apparently was hit by the pax sliding after her) which remained unnoticed until days later when she was taken to hospital and died due to brain swelling.
So 6 jets, 5 of them Boeing (4 737 and 1 757), no fatalities for Airbus.
Other high-profile accidents included:
The Dash-8 that crashed in Kathmandu when trying to land on a runway, then on the opposite one, then God knows where. The ATC recording shows a lot of "confusion" (to say the least). It killed 51 out of the 71 on board.
An AT-72 killed all 66 in a CFIT accident in Iran when the crew was descending below the MSA in IMC towards the airport.
The Junkers accident that killed 20, case that was beaten to death in this forum.
And, while it doesn't count for the statistics, the suicidal aerobatic solo flight on a Dash-8 stolen by a non-pilot mechanic.
In my mind, one of the most significant accidents of 2018 was one that was not fatal I still don't understand how. The Embraer with the inverted ailerons where the crew was unable to maintain speed, altitude, heading or attitude, and lost control of the plane several times in IMC (including at times going inverted)... and then managed to land (after going around 3 times for being unable to align properly with the runway and they ended up lining up with a runway that was not the intended one and touched down outside it and then steered to the centerline).
They Aviation Safety Network has a more positive view, tough. Excerpt:
Was it an outlier?
2018 closed with 556 fatalities (worse than the 5-years average of 420) in 15 accidents, including 6 in jets that accounted for the majority of the fatalities:
In Feb we had the An148 that crashed shortly after take-off into IMC with the pitots iced up (and the anti-ice off)., which killed all 71 on board.
In May we had the 737-200 that stalled and spun after taking off from Havana, killing 112 (out of the 113 on board, amazing that someone survived that).
In April we had the 737-700 engine failure where the cowling separated and ended up shattering a pax window who perished from the blunt force trauma related with having the torso sucked out of the plane and banging against the fuselage.
In September, a 737-800 touched down on the sea short of the runway. One person was initially unaccounted for and his body found by divers days later.
In October we had the 737-MAX-8 that crashed after the pilots didn't know how to work out a trim runaway caused by the spooky MCAS function, after the airline failed to fix a plane that was flying with airspeed and AoA problems for at least 3 flights, and after the crew of the previous flight, that experienced exactly the same issue than the fatal flight, failed to communicate the full extension of the problem and what they had to do to regain and maintain control of the plane and decided to continue to the destination even when the problem was evident immediately after take-off. All 181 on-board died (plus 1 diver participating in the recovery of bodies).
And in Nov a 757 returned to departure airport shortly after take-off due to hydraulic failure, extended the gear via alternate system, extended partial flaps via alternate system too, and veered off the runway on landing. The excursion was hard but in principle there were only 6 minor injuries. However, an old woman who was not among the 6 reported injured suffered a skull fracture during the evacuation (apparently was hit by the pax sliding after her) which remained unnoticed until days later when she was taken to hospital and died due to brain swelling.
So 6 jets, 5 of them Boeing (4 737 and 1 757), no fatalities for Airbus.
Other high-profile accidents included:
The Dash-8 that crashed in Kathmandu when trying to land on a runway, then on the opposite one, then God knows where. The ATC recording shows a lot of "confusion" (to say the least). It killed 51 out of the 71 on board.
An AT-72 killed all 66 in a CFIT accident in Iran when the crew was descending below the MSA in IMC towards the airport.
The Junkers accident that killed 20, case that was beaten to death in this forum.
And, while it doesn't count for the statistics, the suicidal aerobatic solo flight on a Dash-8 stolen by a non-pilot mechanic.
In my mind, one of the most significant accidents of 2018 was one that was not fatal I still don't understand how. The Embraer with the inverted ailerons where the crew was unable to maintain speed, altitude, heading or attitude, and lost control of the plane several times in IMC (including at times going inverted)... and then managed to land (after going around 3 times for being unable to align properly with the runway and they ended up lining up with a runway that was not the intended one and touched down outside it and then steered to the centerline).
They Aviation Safety Network has a more positive view, tough. Excerpt:
Despite several high-profile accidents, the year 2018 was one of the safest years ever for commercial aviation, Aviation Safety Network data show. [...]
Given the estimated worldwide air traffic of about 37,800,000 flights, the accident rate is one fatal accident per 2,540,000 flights.
Reflecting on this accident rate, Aviation Safety Network’s CEO Harro Ranter stated that the level of safety has increased significantly: “If the accident rate had remained the same as ten years ago, there would have been 39 fatal accidents last year. At the accident rate of the year 2000, there would have been even 64 fatal accidents. This shows the enormous progress in terms of safety in the past two decades.”
Given the estimated worldwide air traffic of about 37,800,000 flights, the accident rate is one fatal accident per 2,540,000 flights.
Reflecting on this accident rate, Aviation Safety Network’s CEO Harro Ranter stated that the level of safety has increased significantly: “If the accident rate had remained the same as ten years ago, there would have been 39 fatal accidents last year. At the accident rate of the year 2000, there would have been even 64 fatal accidents. This shows the enormous progress in terms of safety in the past two decades.”
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