Breaking news: Ethiopian Airlines flight has crashed on way to Nairobi

[TeeVee]

If I have a choice between an airline flying decades-old 737-classics or even older NG's and an airline flying brand new B737-MAX's, Most consumers are going to naturally assume the latter is the safer choice.

you're kidding, right? 85% of everyone that flies has absolutely zero clue on the airlines' fleets. you and many others here have ranted on and on many times for many years, that the flying public buys by price and could care less about everything else.

[Evan]

you're kidding, right? 85% of everyone that flies has absolutely zero clue on the airlines' fleets. you and many others here have ranted on and on many times for many years, that the flying public buys by price and could care less about everything else.

So you think that Lion Air didn't promote their brand new MAX fleet to potential customers as a brand asset and an indicator of progressive (and thus safe) brand values?

Sure, there are those who ONLY look at price, but I think many people who are flying to marginal parts of the world or on low cost carriers ask themselves the safety question. "What is Lion Air? Never heard of them... Are they safe to fly on?" And then they might ask around or go to the airline website. A brand new fleet of Boeing's latest, cutting-edge 737's is certainly going to make them feel better about that mystery airline. In fact, I think it might make them feel completely confident. I have friends who ask me about particular airlines when travelling in dubious parts of the world. Ironically, one of them asked me about Ethiopian several years ago. She was seriously concerned. I reassured her that they were considered one of the safest options...

[HansPeter]

Former NTSB chairman James E. Hall's opinion of the FAA.

Former NTSB chairman James E. Hall's opinion of the FAA.

In the NYTimes:
James E. Hall: The 737 Max Is Grounded, No Thanks to the F.A.A.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/13/o...-grounded.html

[Gabriel]

I do not remember a fleet ever being grounded because two brand new aircraft of a brand new type crashed within six months due to reported flight-control issues that led to a complete loss of control, killing all on board. I agree, this is unprecedented.

Do you have some information that we don't?

This assumes that certain airlines and pilots are ABSOLUTELY immune from falling into the same trap. That's uh... pretty black and white...

I am sorry but we will not agree here. A second crash due to a MCAS failure that could have been controlled by just following the trim runaway memory items just should have never happened. If we cannot trust humans to control a MCAS excursion, then we cannot trust them to control any excursions that can happen in a plane at any moment and we really need to ban all airplanes.

[Evan]

Do you have some information that we don't?

I don't think so. We both know two brand new aircraft of the same brand new type have crashed within six months. We both know the CEO of Ethiopian has publically stated that the pilot reported flight control issues.

I am sorry but we will not agree here. A second crash due to a MCAS failure that could have been controlled by just following the trim runaway memory items just should have never happened. If we cannot trust humans to control a MCAS excursion, then we cannot trust them to control any excursions that can happen in a plane at any moment and we really need to ban all airplanes.

That's a bit premature, don't you think? There were a lot of people—I think you were one of them—faulting the 'bewildering' cascade of failures on the AF-447 A330 for contributing to the confusion of the crew. How confusing was the Lion Air situation? How prone to tunnelling and confirmation bias was it? The sequence reportedly began with an unreliable airspeed indication (there have been reports that this also occurred during the latest crash). How many trim runaway events are preceded by UAS? Is that not potentially disorienting? Are you sure you are taking human factors into account here?

[Evan]

This is a bit disturbing:

[Yesterday] The Canadian transport minister said that based on satellite data he had reviewed, M.C.A.S. may have played a role.

Q: If the BEA has the flight recorder data, why does the Canadian transport media have to rely on satellite data? Are they not yet sharing it with CAA's in other countries? Or have they not yet read it out?
Q: Assuming it is readable at all, how long does it take to read out the solid-state memory card from a damaged DFDR? Especially under such urgent circumstances with certain countries still allowing the planes to remain in service...

[BoeingBobby]

I don't think so. We both know two brand new aircraft of the same brand new type have crashed within six months. We both know the CEO of Ethiopian has publically stated that the pilot reported flight control issues.




That's a bit premature, don't you think? There were a lot of people—I think you were one of them—faulting the 'bewildering' cascade of failures on the AF-447 A330 for contributing to the confusion of the crew. How confusing was the Lion Air situation? How prone to tunnelling and confirmation bias was it? The sequence reportedly began with an unreliable airspeed indication (there have been reports that this also occurred during the latest crash). How many trim runaway events are accompanied by UAS? Is that not potentially disorienting? Are you are taking human factors into account here?

Sounds like you have it all figured out! Like I said in my previous post. Between you the expert with no experience, and LH who after all has been posting his gibberish for over 10 years on this site, (which automatically makes him another expert too) have found the defendant guilty. May as well take him out back and lynch him.

[Gabriel]

This is a bit disturbing:


Q: If the BEA has the flight recorder data, why does the Canadian transport media have to rely on satellite data? Are they not yet sharing it with CAA's in other countries? Or have they not yet read it out?
Q: Assuming it is readable at all, how long does it take to read out the solid-state memory card from a damaged DFDR? Especially under such urgent circumstances with certain countries still allowing the planes to remain in service...

Only yesterday the Ethiopian authorities requested BEA's help to read out the CVR and FDR, and BEA accepted. They might just arrived to BEA or even be on their way at this moment.

The Canadian authorities did not have any information on the contents of the recorders when they took the decision, and neither did Trump or the FAA.

[Evan]

Only yesterday the Ethiopian authorities requested BEA's help to read out the CVR and FDR, and BEA accepted. They might just arrived to BEA or even be on their way at this moment.

Tomorrow. No hurry I suppose at this point.

The BEA said that "technical work" was scheduled to begin Friday.

The CSMU on the CVR looks intact though:

[Evan]

Sounds like you have it all figured out!

If you read a little more carefully, you'll notice that I have more questions than answers. In fact, I have no answers. We don't yet know everything they were dealing with, which was the point of my post there.

[Highkeas]

This is from todays AW newsletter:
A point of clarification we have reported previously that I should have included in the original story above: while the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) is not triggered via pilot input, it is only active during manual flight with flaps up.
Thought it might of interest to some of you.

[Gabriel]

This is from todays AW newsletter:
A point of clarification we have reported previously that I should have included in the original story above: while the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) is not triggered via pilot input, it is only active during manual flight with flaps up.
Thought it might of interest to some of you.

Yes, we already mentioned that earlier. And even then, in manual flight with flaps up, "active" is perhaps not the best term. It is armed but doing nothing under normal conditions, unless certain parameters are abnormally exceeded (or there is a single sensor failure sending incorrect information for one of those parameters).

[HalcyonDays]

Only yesterday the Ethiopian authorities requested BEA's help to read out the CVR and FDR, and BEA accepted. They might just arrived to BEA or even be on their way at this moment.

The Canadian authorities did not have any information on the contents of the recorders when they took the decision, and neither did Trump or the FAA.

The FAA and the Canadians did apparently have information from the Aireon ADS-B satellite tracking system. This was the "additional information" the Canadians mentioned yesterday, which led them to ground their Max airframes, and subsequently the US as well. The data seemed to confirm that the flight characteristics of the Ethiopian were very similar to the Lion Air. I have no idea how credible this is.

[BoeingBobby]

Okay I am sure you have been inundated but tell me what you know about MCAS and if you think this is what caused either of the two

Sup, yes, I think it definitely causes the accidents, at least the Lion Air. The MCAS pushes the nose over when aircraft thinks it’s stalling to help break the stall. So those guys had a failed airspeed indicator and the airplane thinks it’s stalling, so it trims down, even with auto pilot off. These guys are crashing them in VMC, imagine getting this in IMC.

No way to disconnect the system?

The worst part, the most fucked up thing, is that Boeing put the system in the aircraft and did not tell the companies, pilots, maintenance, put in the manuals. We had no idea the system was even installed until the Lion Air crash.

Yes, you disconnect the trim, like a runaway stabilizer.

So now you’re manually flying it, manually trimming the aircraft, with no air speed indication.

Have you flown the max?


Yes. Also, you have to recognize this problem, when you have a loss of reliable airspeed. Which is a handful to begin with.

This is what I got from my friend who is a Captain at Southwest.

[Evan]

So now you’re manually flying it, manually trimming the aircraft, with no air speed indication.
Also, you have to recognize this problem, when you have a loss of reliable airspeed. Which is a handful to begin with.

Again, I think this is key to understanding the apparent pilot error we are seeing. Scrambled situational awareness. Human factors.
Thanks for posting that.