Breaking news: Ethiopian Airlines flight has crashed on way to Nairobi

[BoeingBobby]

Bird strike! Must be Boeing's fault.

[3WE]

Timeline:

* * * * *

And, the A-380 took off, shuddered and is now stalling and falling...

Including one of them that just almost lost a wing...

What were those engineers thinking, and were they silent?

[Evan]

Timeline:

1960 - The first low-bypass turbofans appear on commercial airliners.
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1966 - Boeing introduces the JT8D-powered B737 with a bypass ratio of 1:1.
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1969 - Boeing delivers the JT9D high-bypass turbofan-powered B747 with a bypass ratio of 5:1. From this point on, all new (clean-sheet) large-capacity airframes would feature high-bypass turbofans.
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1984 - Boeing delivers the first high-bypass-powered B737, the Classic series, with an airframe-limited fan diameter of 60" and a bypass-ration of around 6:1.
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Early 1990's - Engine manufacturers, in collaboration with Nasa and other research facilities, begin development on Ultrahigh-Bypass Turbofans with bypass ratios of 10:1 or greater.
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1997 - Boeing delivers the first B737-NG, with an airframe-limited fan diameter of 61" and a max bypass ratio of 5:1. The CFM56-7 achieves greater efficiency through materials and aerodynamic technology advancements such as wide-chord fan blades. The CFM-56 efficiency is essentially maxed out at this point.
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James McNerney becomes CEO of GE Aircraft Engines division. He is therefore well-aware of the future trend toward Ultrahigh-Bypass Turbofans.
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2005 - James McNerney becomes CEO of Boeing. His emphasis is on cost reductions and stock performance.
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2006 - Rolls Royce first runs the new Trent 1000 ultrahigh-bypass turbofan, destined to power the B787.
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2007 - Boeing rolls out the first production B787. It incorporates a great deal of new technology and serves as an in-service testbed for the Y1. It also represents an enormous R&D investment, running billions over budget, that will delay B787 profitability for a decade or more. This weighs heavily on Boeing's current stock price performance.
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2008 - Pratt & Whitney begin test-flights for the ultrahigh-bypass PW1000G. CFM announces the LEAP-X. It is now clear that these engines will be a customer requirement for new aircraft designs.
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2009 - Boeing submits patent for the Y1, a design to replace the B737 with an airframe capable of mounting the new ultrahigh-bypass turbofans.
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2010 - Airbus announces the A320 NEO. NEO stands for 'New Engine Option' and is centered on the ultrahigh bypass engines coming to market.
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2011 - American Airlines announces an order for 460 narrowbody jets including 130 A320NEO's and 130 A320NEO's, and intended to order 100 re-engined 737 with CFM LEAPs, pending Boeing confirmation. The order broke Boeing's monopoly with the airline and forced Boeing into the re-engined 737 MAX.
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Boeing announces the fast-tracked B737-MAX, officially postponing the Y1 replacement. Boeing engineers are tasked with fitting the CFM LEAP turbofan under an airframe that is too small to carry it. They are therefore forced to rely on artificial stability augmentation software to obtain certification.
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2014 - CEO James McNerney announces "no more moonshots" in new airframe development, effectively backing the company away from technological innovation. He states that “All of us have gotten religion,” while speaking to Wall Street analysts at the annual investor conference in the Fairmont Olympic Hotel in Seattle.
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2015 - James McNerney steps down as Boeing CEO. Of his more than $100M in compensation, over $25M is in the form of stock options. Thus, his potential wealth is tied to the company stock performance over the coming years.
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2017 - Boeing begins delivery of its highly-profitable 737 MAX. Boeing stock price begins to soar sharply above $150/share.
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October 29th, 2018 - Lion Air flight 610 crashes with the loss of 189 lives. The cause is determined to have involved malfunctioning artificial stability augmentation designed without any provision for sensor-input redundancy.
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2019 - Boeing refuses to ground the B737-MAX pending an initial investigation despite calls from pilot's unions to do so. The FAA also refuses to mandate such a grounding.
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March 10th, 2019 - Ethiopian Airlines flight 302 crashes with the loss of 157 lives. The cause is again determined to involve a malfunction of the artificial stability augmentation system.
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May 10th, 2019 - Boeing stock price is currently around $355/share, meaning James McNerney's approximately $25M in stock compensation has since increased in value by approximately $45M in just four years.


Summary:

Boeing management knew by the late 1990's that the ultrahigh-bypass market requirement was coming. They knew a single-aisle airframe suitable to these engines would be a necessity by 2015. They did nothing to begin production on a solution until a pending defection by American Airlines to Airbus forced their hand in 2011. The makeshift solution they devised required adding artificial stability augmentation to an outdated airframe. It was rushed through development and the design and certification process involved negligence that compromised safety. Priority was placed on minimal pilot transition time and new-type certification avoidance.

During the tenure of James McNerney as CEO, development on the ultrahigh-bypass Y1 B737 replacement was curtailed and emphasis was placed on cost reduction and stock price performance.

Boeing was left with an obsolete airframe modified to carry an engine it was never designed to carry, and was forced to rely on artificial stability to earn certification and remain competitive. In marketing the aircraft, Boeing relied on fleet-commonality with the B737NG and minimal pilot transition training. This resulted in safety compromises.

As the result of negligence on the part of Boeing and the FAA, 346 people lost their lives.

James McNerney earned an enormous profit from this strategy, as did every major shareholder of the company. This is clearly the motive behind the chain of decisions that postponed the Y1 and fast-tracked the development and marketing strategy of the inherently unsafe 737-MAX.

[3WE]

When the space shuttle Challenger exploded, a number of well-qualified engineering types were NOT silent... they said the launch should be postponed, but they were overruled by management.

Thank you. I believe I brought up this exact same issue numerous posts ago...

This may or may not be an apples to apples comparison. Adding a system to prevent stalls versus launching at a temperature where we KNOW the O-rings were NOT SPECIFICALLY designed for. It's wow- who would have thought two crews would forget to use the thumb switch if MCAS accidentally kicked in...vs. Rubber gets hard when it's cold AND WE ALREADY KNOW THESE 0-RINGS HAVE LEAKED ON OCCASION...but lets not really tell upper management about that...

If a significant group of Boeing engineers said, "hey, there's a set of circumstances where this might be a death trap*see footnote" AND THEY WERE SILENCED, then maybe you've got something. Right now, I'm not so sure that it wasn't a big bunch of well-meaning folks who really never envisioned the swiss cheese of this...

To steal (and paraphrase) a comment from someone: "We are still not sure if this is "a much-needed, enhanced stick-pusher" OR a "make it feel the same pseudo-FBW system". (Don't interpret this as an absolute statement)

*Footnote: "Set of circumstances" to include Boeing Bobby NOT in the cockpit to turn off the trim switches.

[elaw]

the blame i lay at the feet of the engineers is their silence. and insofar as they likely could have prevented these two tragedies, are equally to blame.

If in fact they were silent... hopefully an investigation will tell.

When the space shuttle Challenger exploded, a number of well-qualified engineering types were NOT silent... they said the launch should be postponed, but they were overruled by management.

[BoeingBobby]

If you say so.

[TeeVee]

ok, i'll chime in....

sorry BB, i ain't buying that this was simply shit happens. boeing engineers are far too good (for the most part) for them to be at fault (except for not blowing every fucking whistle in the universe BEFORE 300+ people died).

on the other hand, boeing execs are just whores for wall street. safety is not their primary nor secondary concern. only stock price and making or exceeding projected profits. it is they who are truly to blame.

the blame i lay at the feet of the engineers is their silence. and insofar as they likely could have prevented these two tragedies, are equally to blame.

[BoeingBobby]

Your argument is like arguing religion. It's all just a theory. And in my opinion, are close to being defaming and slanderous.

[Evan]

Okay, if you say so. You are the expert after all. ATP rated pilot with a couple thousand hours and 3 or 4 type ratings after all. SMFH!

Why is it always the same circular argument with you? What does putting two and two together regarding the timeline of an aviation debarcle have to do with a type rating? Has it ever occurred to you that most NTSB experts lack a type rating? Does this make them unqualified?

I value your expertise when it comes to hands-on issues and knowing how thing really go down in practice, but on issues that require research to understand, you're only as good as your research skills.

I'm talking here about management strategy, corporate priorities and the self-enriching executive strategy of putting immediate shareholder value over long-term (but inevitable) concerns.

What's the required type rating for that?

[BoeingBobby]

Bobby, do you ever ride a bicycle?

As a younger person, I crashed occasionally...yeah, I'm ultimately to blame, but I sure as hell did not INTEND to crash just for the thrills.

Edit:


Indeed.

Nor do I think that Boeing, any of it's employees or either of those pilot's "intend" for them too.

[BoeingBobby]

This shit didn't have to happen, and management IS to blame for it.

Okay, if you say so. You are the expert after all. ATP rated pilot with a couple thousand hours and 3 or 4 type ratings after all. SMFH!

[Evan]

No, this is where the "shit happens" comes into play.

This shit didn't have to happen, and management IS to blame for it.

[BoeingBobby]

Not really. 346 people decided to get on a Boeing 737-Max and died and it's their own fault?

No, this is where the "shit happens" comes into play.

[Evan]

Evan banged his elbow on the way into the kitchen on the door. I am sure it's his wife's ( or probably his mommy's) fault for not opening the door all the way. Not his fault for walking into it. See what I mean?

Not really. 346 people decided to get on a Boeing 737-Max and died and it's their own fault?

[3WE]

That's not the point here. You seem to infer that the Boeing engineers did this maliciously, just to save money. You are always spouting off about human error. Does that only apply to pilot's?

Bobby, do you ever ride a bicycle?

As a younger person, I crashed occasionally...yeah, I'm ultimately to blame, but I sure as hell did not INTEND to crash just for the thrills.

Edit:

[Something about bumping one's elbow]

Indeed.