Breaking news: Ethiopian Airlines flight has crashed on way to Nairobi

[3WE]

***What would cause a speed 'runaway'?***

Can you clarify?

My first reaction is "leveling off at high power settings" or "the push-over from MCAS while at high power settings".

(Sarcasm level is only at 20% here- my understanding is that these planes were both in takeoff/climb out types of settings where traditionally you might need to throttle back if you level off...and the MCAS is supposedly pushing them over while they are not getting airspeed data- I want to believe that Bobby would throttle back the exact right amount, but I also have sympathy for confusion when your computer AND the airplane BOTH go crazy).

[Gabriel]

Exactly WHEN HAL goes Y2K probably has a big influence.

The stickshaker started as soon as they rotated. The MCAS push down started as soon as they retracted the flaps. In both Lion Air flights.

[3WE]

stickshaker...rotated...both Lion Air flights.

10-4....and wow- forgot that and just ASS umed it went off somewhere in -flight.

Credit crew 1 with "continuing to fly the GD airplane" vs. Crew 2 who at some apparently let it have its way.

Foul on crew 1 because I'd THINK you want to promptly turn around and land (while continuing to fly the GD airplane).

(And yes, foul on them? or the whole airline? for not reporting and fixing it overnight).

[Evan]

Can you clarify?

My first reaction is "leveling off at high power settings" or "the push-over from MCAS while at high power settings".

That's actually what I thought at first. Because apparently the flight was initially flying below MSA. But...

Then the controllers observed the plane going up and down by hundreds of feet, and it appeared to be moving unusually fast, the person said.
Flight 302 was just three minutes into its flight, the person said, and appeared to have accelerated to even higher speeds, well beyond its safety limits.

By 'well beyond its safety limits', should we assume they mean overspeed, as in, Vne?

This 'person' is apparently one of the flight controllers. However, I afford at least 50% speculation to lost-in-translation or daft-media-reinterpretation.

But then...

“The speed is very high,” said Mr. Cox, a former executive air safety chairman of the Air Line Pilots Association in the United States. “The question is why. The plane accelerates far faster than it should.”

[Gabriel]

10-4....and wow- forgot that and just ASS umed it went off somewhere in -flight.

Credit crew 1 with "continuing to fly the GD airplane" vs. Crew 2 who at some apparently let it have its way.

Foul on crew 1 because I'd THINK you want to promptly turn around and land (while continuing to fly the GD airplane).

(And yes, foul on them? or the whole airline? for not reporting and fixing it overnight).

According to the interim report, this is what crew 1 did (it sounds like a good job overall but nothing heroic or super difficult):

- On 28 October 2018, a Boeing 737-8 (MAX) aircraft registered PK-LQP was operated as a scheduled passenger flight from Denpasar to Jakarta. Prior to the flight, the Angle of Attack (AoA) sensor had been replaced and tested.

- The DFDR showed the stick shaker activated during the rotation and remained active throughout the flight. About 400 feet, the PIC noticed on the Primary Flight Display (PFD) that the IAS DISAGREE warning appeared.

- The PIC cross checked both PFDs with the standby instrument and determined that the left PFD had the problem. The flight was handled by the SIC.

- The PIC noticed that as soon the SIC stopped trim input, the aircraft was automatically trimming aircraft nose down (AND). After three automatic AND trim occurrences, the SIC commented that the control column was too heavy to hold back. The PIC moved the STAB TRIM switches to CUT OUT.

- The pilot performed three Non-Normal Checklists (NNCs) consisting of Airspeed Unreliable, ALT DISAGREE, and Runaway Stabilizer. None of the NNCs performed contained the instruction “Plan to land at the nearest suitable airport”.

- After parking in Jakarta, the PIC informed the engineer about the aircraft problem and entered IAS (Indicated Air Speed) and ALT (altitude) Disagree and FEEL DIFF PRESS (Feel Differential Pressure) light problem on the Aircraft Flight Maintenance Log (AFML).

- The PIC also reported the flight condition through the electronic reporting system of the company A-SHOR.

- The engineer performed flushing the left Pitot Air Data Module (ADM) and static ADM to rectify the IAS and ALT disagree followed by operation test on ground and found satisfied. The Feel Differential Pressure was rectified by performed cleaned electrical connector plug of elevator feel computer. The test on ground found the problem had been solved.

- At 2320 UTC, (29 October 2018, 0620 LT) the aircraft departed from Jakarta using runway 25L and intended destination Pangkal Pinang. The DFDR recorded a difference between left and right Angle of Attack (AoA) of about 20° and continued until the end of recording. During rotation the left control column stick shaker activated and continued for most of the flight.

- According to the weight and balance sheet, on board the aircraft were two pilots, five flight attendants and 181 passengers consisted of 178 adult, one child and two infants. The voyage report showed that the number of flight attendant on board was six flight attendants.

- During the flight the LNI610 SIC asked the TE controller to confirm the altitude of the aircraft and later also asked the speed as shown on the TE controller radar display. The LNI610 SIC reported experienced „flight control problem‟.

- After the flaps retracted, the FDR recorded automatic aircraft nose down (AND) trim active for 10 seconds followed by flight crew commanded aircraft nose up (ANU) trim. The flaps extended to 5 and the automatic AND trim stopped.

- At 23:25:18 UTC, the flaps retracted to 0 and several seconds later, the automatic AND trim and flight crew commanded ANU trim recorded began again and continued for the remainder of the flight.

- The LNI610 PIC advised the controller that the altitude of the aircraft could not be determined due to all aircraft instruments indicating different altitudes and requested to the controller to block altitude 3,000 feet above and below for traffic avoidance.

- The flight crew and the flight attendants held valid licenses and medical certificates and certified to operate B737.

- The Aircraft Flight Maintenance Log (AFML) recorded that since 26 October 2018 until the occurrence date, several problems occurred related to airspeed and altitude flag appeared on Captain (left) Primary Flight Display (PFD) three times, SPEED TRIM FAIL light illumination and MACH TRIM FAIL light illumination two times and IAS (Indicated Airspeed) and ALT (Altitude) Disagree shown on the flight Denpasar to Jakarta the day before the accident flight.

[Gabriel]

I just heard that in the Ethiopian crash the jackscrew of the stabilizer was found in an aircraft-nose-down position. This must be the "evidence found on the ground".

[Evan]

I just heard that in the Ethiopian crash the jackscrew of the stabilizer was found in an aircraft-nose-down position. This must be the "evidence found on the ground".

I guess the question is: how far down?

[Gabriel]

I guess the question is: how far down?

I bet that quite more than it should. Otherwise they would have not crashed (assuming that they crashed because of this).

[Evan]

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Data Recorder has been read out for the week. It shows a sharp, sudden descent followed by a surpisingly rapid stabilization and a small but steady positive vertical rate.

This does not appear to be indicative of technical problems with the aircraft that might lead to a crash.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BA?p=BA&.tsrc=fin-srch

[Gabriel]

I bet that quite more than it should. Otherwise they would have not crashed (assuming that they crashed because of this).

Full nose-down according to this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AgkmJ1U2M_Q

[Gabriel]

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Data Recorder has been read out for the week. It shows a sharp, sudden descent followed by a surpisingly rapid stabilization and a small but steady positive vertical rate.

This does not appear to be indicative of technical problems with the aircraft that might lead to a crash.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BA?p=BA&.tsrc=fin-srch

It's a good time to buy Boeing shares.

[Evan]

It's a good time to buy Boeing shares.

We should wait for the report ; |

[Schwartz]

It's a good time to buy Boeing shares.

I was paying close attention to this since it was first announced. It hit the lowest point at the opening on the first day. Not enough of a discount IMO. They only dropped ~11% and less now. You know it isn't that much of a drop when they quote the number in absolute terms (i.e. they dropped XXX Billion dollars). The absolute number is meaningless and their revenue could easily be impacted just by the delay in shipments. It seems there aren't enough panicky investors of this stock. One article I read put it nicely: What are the airlines going to do? Switch planes? Far too expensive to do that once they've committed such a huge up front investment.

It will be the revenues of the airlines that are the most impacted. Air Canada alone is losing 12K passenger flights per day.

[Schwartz]

Full nose-down according to this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AgkmJ1U2M_Q

Nice video. Didn't realize it was such a large mechanical wheel in the flight deck. Now why didn't they announce the jack screw finding while announcing everything else?

[thor]

737 max 8 is dead, no one would like to board this plane ever.