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  • Originally posted by LH-B744 View Post
    But is a 29 year old Flight Captain rather prone to .. let's say bad decisions which are outside his influence, than let's say with 39?
    No. Age and experience is a double-edged sword. You have EXCELLENT youngster pilots and TERRIBLE highly experienced ones.

    --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
    --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

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    • Originally posted by Evan View Post
      Soon, if industry has its way, we will have flying taxis. They will either be piloted or automonous. If piloted, they will have to be designed with the pilot as the final line of defense rather than the first.
      Depending on what you mean with that, that doesn't work. Having someone doing only easy tasks while the automation takes most of the workload and suddenly expect that person to take over and do what he never does when the automation says "that's it, good bye" is naive.

      --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
      --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Gabriel View Post
        Depending on what you mean with that, that doesn't work. Having someone doing only easy tasks while the automation takes most of the workload and suddenly expect that person to take over and do what he never does when the automation says "that's it, good bye" is naive.
        You're talking about practiced airmanship. They won't have it. So that's the reality. That's why they have to be the last line of defense. That's why it can never come to that. If it does, they must have procedures to follow, and a great deal of luck.

        The marginal pilots of the current era should still have marginal airmanship. So they can possibly be trained and counted on to fly out of upsets that are not bewildering. Like trim runaway. But not this MCAS scenario. No way.

        Maybe they could. Maybe they couldn't. That's not acceptable as the sole form of redundancy. Boeing knew this.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Evan View Post
          You're talking about practiced airmanship. They won't have it. So that's the reality. That's why they have to be the last line of defense. That's why it can never come to that. If it does, they must have procedures to follow, and a great deal of luck.
          I don't get it. What's the difference between that and a fully automated system?

          A system where the last line of defense is the human but that you can never can allow to come to that because then they will need to revert to procedures that they are unlikely to perform successfully???
          What's that?

          That's not acceptable as the sole form of redundancy. Boeing knew this.
          And I fully agree with that. But a lot of other non-acceptable things done (or not done) by a lot of other entities needed to happen for these accidents to materialize.

          Lion Air's response to the previous occurrence is ridiculous. The pilot not reporting what happened anywhere close to the full extent (in particular no mentioning the trim moving my itself, the stickshaker active all the time, or that they used the trim cutout switches). The maintenance that did nothing, or worse, just did something to be able to say "we did something, plane cleared".

          And the response from the Ethiopian pilots is hard to understand too. One would think that they would know what to expect and how to react to this after the lessons learned from Lion Air. And I never understood why they reconnected the trim cutout switches to be able to use the electric trim but then didn't use it, but the article gave an hypothesis of that. What if they did it just to try to connect the autopilot? It would not be the first case where the pilots react to a an upset by trying to connect the AP and have it save them.

          Again, nothing of that removes a gram of blame from Boeing. But we need to apportion blame to where it belongs, and Boeing is not the only place.

          --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
          --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Gabriel View Post
            I don't get it. What's the difference between that and a fully automated system?

            A system where the last line of defense is the human but that you can never can allow to come to that because then they will need to revert to procedures that they are unlikely to perform successfully???
            What's that?
            That's the future, if we don't prevent these industries from going there.

            And I fully agree with that. But a lot of other non-acceptable things done (or not done) by a lot of other entities were bound to to happen, and these accidents were bound to materialize.
            (Fixed.)

            Yes, everything you say is true. Bad pilots. Bad maintenance. Bad management. Bad civil aviation authority. Bad safety culture. Welcome to the underdeveloped world.

            Was Boeing aware of this when it sold Lion Air all those airplanes that depended so heavily on pilots being exceptional under pressure and bewilderment? Yes. Boeing knew this.

            Again, nothing of that removes a gram of blame from Boeing. But we need to apportion blame to where it belongs, and Boeing is not the only place.
            We have to focus blame where the chain of events began and, more importantly, where it will make a difference. Indonesia isn't going to miraculously purge their aviation industry of lassitude, incompetence and corruption. Boeing, however, could purge their executive management tomorrow.

            We need to identify every aspect and apportion blame to each one, but the stateside focus must remain on Boeing, while allowing them about as much wiggle room as a 737-MAX lavatory.

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            • Best possible outcome: a top-down purge of Boeing management, a mea culpa admission that Boeing had lost its primary mission while pursuing wealth building strategies, a commitment to always allow engineering concerns to reach the highest levels of the company, a divorce from the FAA (they can remain friends, but without privileges) and the announcement of a B737 replacement that will leverage the best technologies of the day and re-establish Boeing as an innovation leader in aerospace and a trusted household name.

              The outcome I expect: a patched-up B737-MAX that will be as safe as the NG (marketed mainly for fleet commonality), upper management survival and a continued focus on short-term financial goals over longer-term investments in engineering while other airframers take the lead on short-to-medium-haul innovation. I expect even the Chinese to soon have an indigenous single-aisle in service that will make the MAX seem downright antique.

              Meanwhile, there are rumors that the 797 might be a 757/767 widebody replacement. So the bellcrankity 737 might become the domestic workhorse for yet another generation.

              Comment


              • compare and contrast:

                "Airbus decided to take on Boeing by creating a robotic new airplane that would address the accelerating decline in airmanship and require minimal piloting skills largely by using digital flight controls to reduce pilot workload, iron out undesirable handling characteristics and build in pilot-proof protections against errors like aerodynamic stalls, excessive banks and spiral dives. The idea was that it would no longer be necessary to protect the public from airplanes if Airbus could get airplanes to protect themselves from pilots....
                You might think that the 737 would have grown increasingly disadvantaged given the New World qualities of the A320, but in my estimation pilots have managed to crash the 320 at about the same rate, largely because of confusion over automation." (William Langeweische, NYT Magazine 9/18/19).

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                • Originally posted by TeeVee View Post
                  compare and contrast:

                  "Airbus decided to take on Boeing by creating a robotic new airplane that would address the accelerating decline in airmanship and require minimal piloting skills largely by using digital flight controls to reduce pilot workload, iron out undesirable handling characteristics and build in pilot-proof protections against errors like aerodynamic stalls, excessive banks and spiral dives. The idea was that it would no longer be necessary to protect the public from airplanes if Airbus could get airplanes to protect themselves from pilots....
                  You might think that the 737 would have grown increasingly disadvantaged given the New World qualities of the A320, but in my estimation pilots have managed to crash the 320 at about the same rate, largely because of confusion over automation." (William Langeweische, NYT Magazine 9/18/19).
                  The A320 wasn't designed or intended for idiots either. There is still a steep professional learning curve involved. AirAisa was a wonderful example of what can happen when you put the A320 in the wrong hands. But current technology can make managing and troubleshooting such systems more user-friendly, even when they malfunction. If these flying taxis every enter service (let's hope this day is a good way off), you can bet the pilot-facing automation won't be much more complex than your basic Tesla. The rest will be done in the background.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Gabriel View Post
                    Depending on what you mean with that, that doesn't work. Having someone doing only easy tasks while the automation takes most of the workload and suddenly expect that person to take over and do what he never does when the automation says "that's it, good bye" is naive.
                    What’s interesting is that is kind of what we have- autopilot on at 400 feet, and then off at 400 feet with lots of FMS adjustments and acronym utterance the rest of the time.

                    Captain ATL razzed for hand flying too much.

                    Evan is too black and white on the subject- but there may be validity that the anti error engineering of air bus and flying in general makes a mediocre environment for awesome airpersonship and a trend to focus elsewhere.

                    Should we deprioritize airmanship for systems?

                    All that being said, Air France shows the other side of this- that some Uber basic skills can sometimes be important, even in the biggest, bestest planes.

                    Finally, let’s not forget that lots of smart people INCLUDING WORKING PILOTS GENERALLY contribute to the design of aeroplanies, systems and training. But it would be interesting to know how pilots were involved in the design of MCAS. Were they not, or was it insidious group think?
                    Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Gabriel View Post
                      No. Age and experience is a double-edged sword. You have EXCELLENT youngster pilots and TERRIBLE highly experienced ones.
                      I will agree with that! Just remember, that a 25 year old can turn two switches off just as well as a 65 year old!

                      Comment


                      • Before Boeing built MCAS wrong for the 737-MAX, it built MCAS right for the KC-46. Don't these people talk to each other?

                        https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/30/p...max/index.html

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                        • Very lengthy article on the ‘MAX situation.

                          Indeed, let us legislate morals and eliminate Wall Street.

                          Fortunately, governments do much better at being a "large organization" that is moral, correct and efficient...[/Blue Font]

                          https://newrepublic.com/article/1549...paign=sharebtn

                          I mostly like the discussions of how engineers are kept from management in favor of non engineers. And analogous stories about jet engines, space shuttle and RR locomotives... I dunno, you'd think some subject matter knowledge might be a good thing?



                          PS: I'm still not 100% on board that this is some sort of premeditated crime, as much as an unfortunate "storm" of human behavior.
                          Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by 3WE View Post
                            Very lengthy article on the ‘MAX situation.

                            Indeed, let us legislate morals and eliminate Wall Street.
                            This, the thoughtless hyperbolic response to a very obvious need to strengthen and enforce societal protections and to end the chaos-casino that Wall Street has become. We don't need to "legislate morals", we need to create moral legislation. We don't need to "eliminate Wall Street", we need to make it beneficial to society.

                            One thing is blatantly obvious about many of these despicable scandals that have become SOP for big business: they do make rich people richer. In that respect they work as intended. But at what cost? The currency of a nation's respect and reputation? Common decency? Human lives? Don't you think those things should be protected by some sort of legislation, since clearly they are not going to be protected any other way?

                            Nothing in this article surprised me. It's as plainly obvious as it is plainly stated here:

                            Here, a generation after Boeing’s initial lurch into financialization, was the entirely predictable outcome of the byzantine process by which investment capital becomes completely abstracted from basic protocols of production and oversight: a flight-correction system that was essentially jerry-built to crash a plane. “If you’re looking for an example of late stage capitalism or whatever you want to call it,” said longtime aerospace consultant Richard Aboulafia, “it’s a pretty good one.”

                            Call it a sign, a wake-up call, a call-to-action or whatever else fits, but to ignore it, to fail to take action to address it, through governance, would be an unthinkable act of neglect for society. If this "late stage capitalism" scourge isn't routed through laws, it won't be routed through individual moral courage or compunction, the reward-based culture is too deeply instilled now among the morally weak, and it will—it will—be the moronic end of modern democractic civilization.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Evan View Post
                              Before Boeing built MCAS wrong for the 737-MAX, it built MCAS right for the KC-46. Don't these people talk to each other?

                              [...]
                              A very brilliant question. I just wonder what CEOs who operate a 'Star Alliance' airline can do, or better will do, until the case ET # 302 is fully solved. My favorite airline is not affected by the 737-max.
                              But what could somebody like CEO Munoz of United Airlines do, who operates a fleet of fourteen 737-max9 and not a single one in the air today or tomorrow. The UA order contains another fourtyseven (47) 737-max9, which are not delivered since six or seven months.

                              I don't know how long it normally takes between the order of a brandnew jet and the inauguration flight. An answer which is probably too easy could be, try another 5 or 10 airbuses. But UA still has an airbus order where 4 A320s have to be delivered.

                              And a few minutes ago, I learned that Airbuses might get more expensive for US carriers, without that somebody in Europe had risen the prices (!) ... Is that really helpful for United Airlines (rhetorical question) ?

                              PS: Imho, the problem is not that Airbuses are too cheap for US carriers. The real problem is time. I just try to remember what happened when Lufthansa ordered the 747-800 passage jet. That was back in 2006. In 2011, a few LH 747 pilots visited Boeing for the first test flight in a LH-B748 . 5 years, between the order and the first test flight in LH colors.

                              But I think that's worth it. Patience is always worth it. Since 2011, 'my bigger sister' really works like a charm!
                              Last edited by LH-B744; 2019-10-02, 23:51. Reason: We need patience, when a/c are completely altered.
                              I need more Fortuna when I say Düsseldorf. Come On!
                              LH is member in the 747 club since April 1970. Jubilees do count, believe me.
                              Aviation enthusiast, since more than 30 years with home airport EDDL.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by LH-B744 View Post
                                A very brilliant question. I just wonder what CEOs who operate a 'Star Alliance' airline can do, or better will do, until the case ET # 302 is fully solved. My favorite airline is not affected by the 737-max.
                                But what could somebody like CEO Munoz of United Airlines do, who operates a fleet of fourteen 737-max9 and not a single one in the air today or tomorrow. The UA order contains another fourtyseven (47) 737-max9, which are not delivered since six or seven months.

                                I don't know how long it normally takes between the order of a brandnew jet and the inauguration flight. An answer which is probably too easy could be, try another 5 or 10 airbuses. But UA still has an airbus order where 4 A320s have to be delivered.

                                And a few minutes ago, I learned that Airbuses might get more expensive for US carriers, without that somebody in Europe had risen the prices (!) ... Is that really helpful for United Airlines (rhetorical question) ?

                                PS: Imho, the problem is not that Airbuses are too cheap for US carriers. The real problem is time. I just try to remember what happened when Lufthansa ordered the 747-800 passage jet. That was back in 2006. In 2011, a few LH 747 pilots visited Boeing for the first test flight in a LH-B748 . 5 years, between the order and the first test flight in LH colors.

                                But I think that's worth it. Patience is always worth it. Since 2011, 'my bigger sister' really works like a charm!
                                What?

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