Breaking news: Ethiopian Airlines flight has crashed on way to Nairobi

[HalcyonDays]

What?! There is clear data. I am ONLY referring to the Lion Air crash. The investigation has determined that the MCAS system malfunctioned due to a single AoA sensor fault. The FAA has already issued an emergency AD and Boeing has redesigned the software 'enhancement' to remove certain vulnerabilities directly related to that crash. Those vulnerabilities still exist and will continue to exist until the new software 'enhancement' is in place. That vulnerability may have now caused an additional crash and massive loss of life.

Given all that, how can you argue with temporarily grounding the aircraft? It's logic vs bias.

I’m not comfortable with mass groundings driven by social media hysteria. At least the 787 and DC-10 groundings were driven by less emotion. However, I accept that in today’s atmosphere it’s unavoidable and expedient. I also note unconfirmed reports that some US pilots have encountered problems. Boeing’s CEO is either brave or foolhardy in pushing his luck on the Max’s safety.

[HalcyonDays]

What?! There is clear data. I am ONLY referring to the Lion Air crash. The investigation has determined that the MCAS system malfunctioned due to a single AoA sensor fault. The FAA has already issued an emergency AD and Boeing has redesigned the software 'enhancement' to remove certain vulnerabilities directly related to that crash. Those vulnerabilities still exist and will continue to exist until the new software 'enhancement' is in place. That vulnerability may have now caused an additional crash and massive loss of life.

Given all that, how can you argue with temporarily grounding the aircraft? It's logic vs bias.

And no grounding would have occurred without the second crash.

[Evan]

I’m not comfortable with mass groundings driven by social media hysteria.

Neither am I. That's not what is happening here.

And no grounding would have occurred without the second crash.

I'm sure that's true. That's the sad thing. Regulation continues to be reactionary rather than visionary. And if this crash turns out to be related to Lion Air, it will also be true that, with a grounding, no second crash would have occurred.

[Evan]

Why don't we settle back and let the REAL experts do their job before we start the construction of the gallows.

The REAL experts have already done their job on Lion Air. And nobody is constructing a gallows. They are just making sure nobody is flying in one.

Here, there is more USEFUL information about the issue at hand compiled at this link. You will learn more about THIS ISSUE in five minutes than you did in your previous 25,000,000 hours of flight time:

http://www.b737.org.uk/mcas.htm

And then tell us how comfortable you are with a system that COUNTERACTS your commands (potentially without warning and for no actual reason) being vulnerable to a SINGLE POINT OF FAILURE.

The ONLY thing thus far that I see wrong with MCAS is the lack of fault-tolerance. The software 'enhancement' should solve this. That is why I will fine flying on the 737MAX once the new software is certified and in place. Until then, it belongs on the ground.

[BoeingBobby]

What has that got to do with anything? The Lion Air crew were ATP rated with a combined 11,000 hours. They didn't have a clue about the systems we are discussing. You didn't either. That's the point.

Honestly, tell us how you feel about being kept in the dark on systems that might interfere with your commands or destabilize your aircraft?

It will ALWAYS come down to, click click, click click, and fly it like a regular old airplane. They all have standby artificial horizons.

[Evan]

It will ALWAYS come down to, click click, click click, and fly it like a regular old airplane. They all have standby artificial horizons.

But it doesn't ALWAYS come down to that, does it. Sometimes it comes down to 'what's it doing now' and scrambled SA and pilot error. Sometimes, it's all over in a matter of seconds.

[BoeingBobby]

But it doesn't ALWAYS come down to that, does it. Sometimes it comes down to 'what's it doing now' and scrambled SA and pilot error. Sometimes, it's all over in a matter of seconds.

That's why they pay us the big $$$. So you DON'T say, "what's it doing now". Unfortunately in Africa as well as some other places, they let 200 hour pilot's in the right seat of a complex jet aircraft. I hate to say it but, I don't think that the Captain of the Ethiopian airplane got much help from his F/O.

[HalcyonDays]

That's why they pay us the big $$$. So you DON'T say, "what's it doing now". Unfortunately in Africa as well as some other places, they let 200 hour pilot's in the right seat of a complex jet aircraft. I hate to say it but, I don't think that the Captain of the Ethiopian airplane got much help from his F/O.

I doubt he got any help. But I question how deeply and broadly qualified an 8000 hour 29-year old captain also was - in the context of a carrier with a diminishing safety and business reputation in recent years, whose flight crewing policies were criticised in the report of the 2010 Beirut 737 crash, which pursues FTLs as targets not guidelines, which discounts fares to absurdly low levels in the aim of creating an ‘African hub’, which trades on a glory reputation as Africa’s ‘leading’ airline in decades past..... In other words, we’ll surely find systemic corporate and culture deficiencies contributing to this disaster.

That doesn’t get Boeing off the hook, however. I trust the NTSB totally. But the NTSB is advisory only, only the FAA can decide, with its famed dual mandate. And when the Boeing CEO basically asks the president for his support (as a pay-off for political contributions ?), the optics are horrible. There will be justifiable skepticism in the media if the boxes are analysed in the US.

[Gabriel]

What has that got to do with anything? The Lion Air crew were ATP rated with a combined 11,000 hours. They didn't have a clue about the systems we are discussing. You didn't either. That's the point.

Ok, but that was BEFORE the Lion Air crash. That crash itself did a lot to fix that.

AFTER the Lion Air crash, NO MAX PILOT should be NOT_AWARE of that there is a think called MCAS in their plane, how it works, when it works, and how to kill it, which by the way is the standard trim runaway procedure existing in the 737 since perhaps the dash 100. That should have been enough mitigation while the improvements take place. That's why I said I really hope that this crash was NOT due to the MCAS. It would have been like having a crew grossly mishandling a UAS event after the events of Air France were kn own and understood. The vulnerabilities that allowed the Air France accident to happen when the pilots did NOT follow the UAS memory times (or even reasonable general airmanship) are still there. Should all Airbuses have been grounded and kept grounded until now?

Perhaps the MAX should have been grounded immediately after the MCAS issue became known after the Lion Air crash until the contingency measures were implemented.
But I think that the grounding of the MAX at this point is pure neurotic reaction.

[TeeVee]

I doubt he got any help. But I question how deeply and broadly qualified an 8000 hour 29-year old captain also was - in the context of a carrier with a diminishing safety and business reputation in recent years, whose flight crewing policies were criticised in the report of the 2010 Beirut 737 crash, which pursues FTLs as targets not guidelines, which discounts fares to absurdly low levels in the aim of creating an ‘African hub’, which trades on a glory reputation as Africa’s ‘leading’ airline in decades past..... In other words, we’ll surely find systemic corporate and culture deficiencies contributing to this disaster.

You just described EVERY US airline. thank you.

[Peter Kesternich]

I think I’d agree for once that the recorders should not be sent to the NTSB, if only to ensure the strictest impartiality. While I give the FAA some credit for not giving in to social media pressure and wanting to wait for clear data, there’s no doubt that the worldwide perception of US credibility has been damaged, and it’s hard to counter that now.

The NTSB is an independent agency that is not linked to the FAA (besides also being a U.S. government agency).

[Evan]

Ok, but that was BEFORE the Lion Air crash. That crash itself did a lot to fix that.

AFTER the Lion Air crash, NO MAX PILOT should be NOT_AWARE of that there is a think called MCAS in their plane, how it works, when it works, and how to kill it, which by the way is the standard trim runaway procedure existing in the 737 since perhaps the dash 100. That should have been enough mitigation while the improvements take place.

This is where we have to disagree. I've already stated as clearly as I can why the 737MAX would have been grounded, out of caution, by any wise and impartial agency. Your point is also clear. No pilot should have been unaware of the danger AFTER the Lion AIr crash. But, as you tend to do, you choose to disregard human factors and the inconsistent quality of pilots across the entire fleet. You cannot confidently depend on a correct pilot action to a sudden upset from a new and bewildering source. That just doesn't show enough concern for public safety in all parts of the world.

It would have been like having a crew grossly mishandling a UAS event after the events of Air France were known and understood. The vulnerabilities that allowed the Air France accident to happen when the pilots did NOT follow the UAS memory times (or even reasonable general airmanship) are still there. Should all Airbuses have been grounded and kept grounded until now?

Airbus jets have an abundance of fail-safe and fail-operational fallbacks built in. The A330 that the AF447 crew were piloting did what the 737MAX should do: it degraded when data sources were unreliable. Thus, it was perfectly functional AND responding to their commands. It was not fighting them because it had a mind of its own. There was no reason to ground it. The Lion Air 737 did, in a sense, have a mind of its own. It's ironic how all the Airbus haters pinned the moniker HAL on the FBW setup, but when a Boeing jet goes HAL, it's all fine, it's still safe.

But I think that the grounding of the MAX at this point is pure neurotic reaction.

You know, coming from me, this is not a pure neurotic reaction. You know coming from the EASA and the CAA and CASA et. al., this is not a pure neurotic reaction.

I actually think the idea that it is all due to an ignorant social media reaction is itself an ignorant social media reaction.

Again, it's a case of logic vs bias.

[3WE]

It will ALWAYS come down to, click click, click click, and fly it like a regular old airplane. They all have standby artificial horizons.

But it doesn't ALWAYS come down to that, does it. Sometimes it comes down to 'what's it doing now' and scrambled SA and pilot error. Sometimes, it's all over in a matter of seconds.

I guess I'd maybe like a redundant imminent stall warning thingie advising the nose-over thingie…

But let's not gloss over some facts.

I'm thinking 8000 feet is plenty of time to pull a CB (I know you don't like that Evan) and crank the trim wheel back where it should be...

Just like 36,000 feet is enough time to consider if a relentless pull up might be causing a voice to say "stall stall" along with a mushing descent at low airspeed.

[flashcrash]

Yes, bait

Good point. Thanks!

You're going to take it anyway.

Lesson learned

[Gabriel]

This is where we have to disagree. I've already stated as clearly as I can why the 737MAX would have been grounded, out of caution, by any wise and impartial agency. Your point is also clear. No pilot should have been unaware of the danger AFTER the Lion AIr crash. But, as you tend to do, you choose to disregard human factors and the inconsistent quality of pilots across the entire fleet. You cannot confidently depend on a correct pilot action to a sudden upset from a new and bewildering source. That just doesn't show enough concern for public safety in all parts of the world.

Then ground all airplanes that have trim runaway as a possible failure mode. That is, ban all airplanes.