Breaking news: Ethiopian Airlines flight has crashed on way to Nairobi

[ErezS]

VERY SAD NEWS: Ethiopian Airlines flight has crashed on way to Nairobi.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/ethiopian-airlines-flight-on-way-to-nairobi-crashes-with-149-passengers-and-8-crew-members-on-board-a4087466.html

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-47513508

On FR24:

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/et-avj#1fc0cdb5

Brand new aircraft!!!

https://www.jetphotos.com/info/737-62450

[Sentinel]

R.I.P all on board. I know I might be jumping the gun here, as this is another 737-MAX accident could this be the same problem as the Lion Air crash with the MCAS being involved.

[ErezS]

On The Aviation Herald:

Crash: Ethiopian B38M near Bishoftu on Mar 10th 2019, impacted terrain after departure

(By Simon Hradecky, created Sunday, Mar 10th 2019 09:29Z, last updated Sunday, Mar 10th 2019 11:38Z)

An Ethiopian Boeing 737-8 MAX, registration ET-AVJ performing flight ET-302 from Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) to Nairobi (Kenya) with 149 passengers and 8 crew, departed Addis Ababa's runway 07R and was climbing out of Addis Ababa when the aircraft levelled off at about 9000 feet MSL, radar contact was lost shortly after at 08:44L (05:44Z). No survivors were found.

The airline reported rescue and recovery forces are on their way to the crash site near Bishoftu (Ethiopia) about 17nm southsoutheast of Addis Ababa. The aircraft had departed Addis Ababa at 08:38L, radio and radar contact with the aircraft was lost at 08:44L.

Ethiopia's states owned Broadcasting Corporation reported citing an unidentified spokesperson of Ethiopian Airlines, that no survivors have been found at the crash site. The aircraft carried citizens of 33 different countries.

At 13:21L (11:21Z) Ethiopian Airlines reported they deeply regret the fatal accident involving ET-302. Their CEO just having arrived at the crash site regrets there have been no survivors and released a photo showing the CEO at an impact crater at the crash site.

Ethiopia's Prime Minister expressed his deep condolences to the families who lost their loved ones.

The last transponder data were received from position N9.027 E39.153 about 21nm east of Addis Ababa at FL086. Terrain elevation at that point is 8130 feet MSL, FL086 reported by the Mode-S Altimeter (which always measures to standard pressure 1013 QNH) corrected for QNH indicates the aircraft was flying at 9027 feet MSL at that position.

Boeing stated with respect to flight ET-302 on Mar 10th 2019: "Boeing is aware of reports of an airplane accident and is closely monitoring the situation." At about 11:25Z Boeing followed up: "Boeing is deeply saddened to learn of the passing of the passengers and crew on Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302, a 737 MAX 8 airplane. We extend our heartfelt sympathies to the families and loved ones of the passengers and crew on board and stand ready to support the Ethiopian Airlines team. A Boeing technical team is prepared to provide technical assistance at the request and under the direction of the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board."

Metars:
HAAB 100600Z 07010KT 9999 FEW025 18/09 Q1029=
HAAB 100500Z 06008KT 9999 FEW025 16/10 Q1029=
HAAB 100400Z 06008KT 9999 FEW025 13/11 Q1028=
HAAB 100300Z 07004KT 9999 FEW025 13/11 Q1028=
HAAB 100100Z 09006KT 9999 FEW025 13/11 Q1027

Attached photo:
CEO of Ethiopian Airlines at the crash site (Photo: Ethiopian Airlines).

[obmot]

The a/c appeared to climb to ~8200ft, then descend to ~7700ft, then climb again to 8600ft in timespan of about 90 seconds.

I'm not a pilot, so no sure if that is atypical - though it represents a climb then ~7% altitude decline then ~11.5% altitude increase then a/c disappearance from radar.

From layperson standpoint (me) it seems perhaps not typical (??) I defer to experts/pilots here.

[Evan]

Oh man, what's going on...

Even if this turns out to be pure pilot error, the media coverage is going to be brutal for Boeing until the cause is determined. I think this might result in enough public pressure to ground the MAX for an extended period.

[Peter Kesternich]

(...) I think this might result in enough public pressure to ground the MAX for an extended period.

And not just public but also industry pressure... At first flush, there seem to be similarities to the LionAir accident...

[Evan]

The a/c appeared to climb to ~8200ft, then descend to ~7700ft, then climb again to 8600ft in timespan of about 90 seconds.

Could be indicative of a sudden loss of autoflight...

[3WE]

...Even if this turns out to be pure pilot error...

Some reason you didn't list explosive device or gross maintenance violation? We don't have a bias that pilots are procedure-skipping, improvisational cowboys, do we?

[3WE]

At first flush, there seem to be similarities to the LionAir accident...

We currently have statements that this has many differences from the LionAir accident.

[Peter Kesternich]

We currently have statements that this has many differences from the LionAir accident.

Could you please give some more information if you have it, including sources... On avherald.com, there is nothing yet to indicate major differences...

[Evan]

Some reason you didn't list explosive device or gross maintenance violation?

Maintenance could certainly be at fault, but the CEO has reported that the crew requested a return without declaring an emergency, so it doesn't read to me like an explosive event (or meteor strike). It reads more like a control problem or a systems problem.

[Schwartz]

Maintenance could certainly be at fault, but the CEO has reported that the crew requested a return without declaring an emergency, so it doesn't read to me like an explosive event (or meteor strike). It reads more like a control problem or a systems problem.

CNN reports that the pilot called in technical problems and requested a return to the airport. That leads me to believe it was not a meteor or similar type of circumstance.

[Evan]

Looking at the ADS-B, it also doesn't look like a crew dealing with repeated trim runaway, as an MCAS issue would show. However, the end of the ADS-B data is possibly due to a loss of signal in that part of the world and there were obviously events that occurred beyond that point that led to the crash. The real danger with MCAS is that pulling the column back (the first instinctive reaction to runaway) no longer deactives the electric pitch trim, and pilots were not told this, so the flight control issue and related confusion can easily escalate.

[HalcyonDays]

Very early days, I know, but one difference between this and the Lion Air is that the latter aircraft had known flight anomalies on the previous flight or two, but this does not seem to have been the case with the Ethiopian.

[kris]

BTW Flightradar plots may be misleading, the Bole Intl airport elevation is 7625 ft and the ADS-B was last seen at about 8200 ft.
It seems to me they were climbing for just 15 seconds before the end of the plot, as if unaware of the raising terrain and/or their own altitude. Did the EGPWS (radalt) call come too late?