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  • #16
    Originally posted by Evan View Post
    What about option 2? If the company gave you two hours a month of stick time in a T-38, would you find the time?
    Just as ridiculous.

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by kent olsen View Post
      Guys you're missing the point.
      Don't mind 3WE. He doesn't actually read what you post. His assessment of my position on this topic is proof of that.

      My position on this topic:

      Believe me, one pilot or no pilot large aircraft is in the future.
      Cargo, maybe, but not anytime soon. Passengers? Not in our lifetime. When airframers can convince the certification authorities that the odds of a failure of ANYTHING mission critical that cannot be dealt with autonomously are so remote that they are considered impossible, then perhaps pilotless planes will appear. The same goes for single-pilot aircraft, because something can always go wrong with the pilot, AND THEN something else can go wrong with the systems. Not to mention that the technology will have to reduce the pilot workload in both normal and abnormal operations to the point where a single pilot can confidently aviate, navigate and communicate AND troubleshoot without any human assistance. That day is a long way off. We're talking time-tested, autonomous AI.

      To get an idea of the point I am making, research the history of the Airbus FBW certification process. Ardous and demanding. Very remote odds—essentially impossible odds—had to be established for a systems failure that might leave the aircraft uncontrollable. That's the standard we have to maintain.

      When Southwest first started operating the B-737-300 they required one leg each day be hand flown. Well that went away. Now some of the younger pilots are uncomfortable with hand flying. For instance just before I retired I was ferrying a Citation X into Las Vegas to pick up some pax. My new to the company, co-pilot, in his 20's was the non-flying pilot. Wx was about 1500 overcast, tops around 17-18,000. I turned off the autopilot as we approached FL180. He abruptly said "what are you doing, what are you doing?" I asked what was the matter and he said "you're not going the hand fly thru the clouds are you? I said "yes I am". He said "yeah but then I'll have to watch and make sure nothing happens". I said "yes and that's what the non-flying pilot is supposed to do all the time".
      I hope you reported your co-pilot for not having an instrument rating.

      My career in aviation went from light airplanes to DC-9's at Sunworld airlines, then DC-9's, DC-8's and B-747's with Evergreen. We always hand flew up to FL 180 and then back down from FL180 including the approach, (in the clouds). I finished my career with NetJets in the Hawker and Citation X. I still hand flew as before but most of the younger pilots used the auto-flight systems.
      This is the dilemma Gabriel spoke of. Is it safer with today's (and tomorrow's) technology to leave the flight on automation whenever possible? Definitely. There can be no argument that almost all aviation crashes today are the result of pilot error, often in manual flight or under 'creative' selected guidance. There is no 'standard' pilot. They vary in skill and judgment. Systems, on the other hand, are standardized. A modern digital autoflight system does not stall, overspeed, get lost or fly into terrain. It does not forget to fly the plane. It does not skip over checklists or get distracted while flirting with the first officer. It does not panic. It does not suffer from over-confidence. It is not restrained by cockpit gradient. It is not vulnerable to somotogravic illusion. It does not monkey with the CB's. It does not let its children take turns flying. It does not have dangerous instincts.

      Is it safer when the flight crew are practiced in manual flight and ready to take over when a situation exceeds the autopilot capabilities or when the autopilot fails. Definitely.

      So how do we do both? Or do we have to choose one and let the other go? Dilemma. We have to heighten a certain aspect of risk to reduce another certain aspect of risk.

      Your post is a bit confusing because you are addressing two different topics. The topic of deteriorating manual flight skills is a dilemma without a perfect solution. The topic of moving to single-pilot or pilotless transport category passenger aircraft is a topic we can leave to future generations. One does not beget the other however. We can continue with two pilots managing an autoflight system for as long as we want.

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by BoeingBobby View Post
        Just as ridiculous.
        I meant subsonic : \

        Again, the dilemma: We have to heighten a certain aspect of risk to reduce another certain aspect of risk.

        The only was around this dilemma is to separate the handflying practice from the revenue flights. How do we do that in a non-ridiculous way? (NASA used the T-38, but they had a NASA budget)

        We can mitigate the dilemma somewhat by maintaining uncompromising pilot-vetting and pilot-training standards before pilots ever get into revenue flying, but given today's profit- and growth-minded industry, that is probably the most ridiculous idea yet.

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by BoeingBobby View Post
          Just as ridiculous.
          I'd find the time though.

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by Evan View Post
            Yeah, but here's what I don't want: handflying an unstable approach catching the glideslope from above any time now with the runway coming into view any time now, I've done this a million times, relax.
            Nobody wants that.

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by ATLcrew View Post
              I'd find the time though.
              You let me know how it goes. I will have to be happy flying my J-3.

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by BoeingBobby View Post
                You let me know how it goes. I will have to be happy flying my J-3.
                Well maybe I did run off at the mouth about some pilots abilities. Just an old taildragger who always liked hand flying and using the rudders.

                But to my first point. Over the years I've seen this. Seven or so years ago at the Mammoth Lakes airport was a guy training pilots to pass the Private Pilot written. Then was training them to operate UAV's. He told me he couldn't train them fast enough for all the openings. Hmm, I'm not sure where they are working, but. Then as I've said I've seen articles in Pro Pilot magazine and a couple others where they address aircraft without any pilots. I thought the next step would be single pilot and was surprised with the premise of NO pilots.

                As I said with the retirement numbers increasing in the next 5-15 years I suspect the subject is going to surface more. When I retired from NetJets 4 years ago we had pilots 75 years old still flying. I think a few years ago the union agreed to lower the max age to 70.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by kent olsen View Post
                  ***using the rudders***
                  What is this rudder of which you speak? My head may be exploding. Possibly Evan's too.
                  Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by kent olsen View Post
                    ***I thought the next step would be single pilot and was surprised with the premise of NO pilots.***
                    Yes.

                    Concur.

                    We'll see.
                    Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by kent olsen View Post
                      I thought the next step would be single pilot and was surprised with the premise of NO pilots.
                      A single pilot is the premise of no pilots, just as a single engine is the premise of no engines. In both cases, we need the second as the redundancy. The current two-pilot cockpit is the premise of a single pilot.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        When we are ready for pilot-less, let's move to pilot-less. While we are not ready for pilot-less, let's keep 2 pilots and let's keep them actively hand flying (click-click, clack-clack) from time to time.

                        --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
                        --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Gabriel View Post
                          When we are ready for pilot-less, let's move to pilot-less. While we are not ready for pilot-less, let's keep 2 pilots and let's keep them actively hand flying (click-click, clack-clack) from time to time.
                          Done!

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            MSFS 2020 will save us:

                            https://edition.cnn.com/travel/artic...oot/index.html

                            The new 3D is astonishingly real these days. I might even start playing.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              If you didn't yet, check the MSFS 2020 entry in the house's Flight Simulator forum.

                              I am 100% committed to buying my copy... except that I am not 100% committed in spending $2K+ in a computer that runs it.

                              --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
                              --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Gabriel View Post
                                If you didn't yet, check the MSFS 2020 entry in the house's Flight Simulator forum.

                                I am 100% committed to buying my copy... except that I am not 100% committed in spending $2K+ in a computer that runs it.
                                Yeah... You could almost get a 17th-hand J-3 for that kind of money and live (and possibly die) in the real world.

                                Comment

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