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1) Liberal majority government:
Don't bet on it.
2) Liberal minority government:
Probably they'd hook up with the NDP to form the coalition. Wouldn't last long, though, especially if Jack Layton is elected as MP. Elections would be called in less than a year rather than risk a no-confidence vote along the road, and they'd be defeated anyway. Paul Martin would resign as Liberal leader and as MP, leaving his seat open for a by-election. If the combined Lib/NDP seats ain't enough, the Governor General will appoint Stephen Harper as PM (no way the Libs will turn to the Bloc for a coalition), giving us the following.
3) Conservative minority government:
This one would be trickier. Unlike the Libs, Harper wouldn't mind asking his buddy Gilles Duceppe to join a Tory/Bloc coalition. This coalition would be even more fragile than a Lib/NDP, but would be more guarded, as the Bloc would have the balance of power in Ottawa. This government could well last the full 5 years, but whether the Conservatives could win a majority government, or even a government at all depends on the political climate by the time of the next election, especially the performance of such government and the Tory/Bloc state of affairs.
4) Conservative majority government:
This would bring Canada upside down. If somehow the Tories and Stephen Harper manage to win a majority in Parliament, this election could be even more shocking than the 1993 one. A Liberal collapse would surely follow, both at the federal level and at the Ontario provincial leven (thanks, Dalton McGuinty!). Should a Conservative majority be the product of a BQ sweep in Quebec, it'd prove to be a pyrrhic victory, even its swan song, because in the next election cycle, the BQ would be destroyed (let's face it: Quebecker dislike Tories more than they do Liberals). Whether Harper wins again next time will be based on his performance.
5) NDP government.
Don't make me laugh!!!
Don't bet on it.
2) Liberal minority government:
Probably they'd hook up with the NDP to form the coalition. Wouldn't last long, though, especially if Jack Layton is elected as MP. Elections would be called in less than a year rather than risk a no-confidence vote along the road, and they'd be defeated anyway. Paul Martin would resign as Liberal leader and as MP, leaving his seat open for a by-election. If the combined Lib/NDP seats ain't enough, the Governor General will appoint Stephen Harper as PM (no way the Libs will turn to the Bloc for a coalition), giving us the following.
3) Conservative minority government:
This one would be trickier. Unlike the Libs, Harper wouldn't mind asking his buddy Gilles Duceppe to join a Tory/Bloc coalition. This coalition would be even more fragile than a Lib/NDP, but would be more guarded, as the Bloc would have the balance of power in Ottawa. This government could well last the full 5 years, but whether the Conservatives could win a majority government, or even a government at all depends on the political climate by the time of the next election, especially the performance of such government and the Tory/Bloc state of affairs.
4) Conservative majority government:
This would bring Canada upside down. If somehow the Tories and Stephen Harper manage to win a majority in Parliament, this election could be even more shocking than the 1993 one. A Liberal collapse would surely follow, both at the federal level and at the Ontario provincial leven (thanks, Dalton McGuinty!). Should a Conservative majority be the product of a BQ sweep in Quebec, it'd prove to be a pyrrhic victory, even its swan song, because in the next election cycle, the BQ would be destroyed (let's face it: Quebecker dislike Tories more than they do Liberals). Whether Harper wins again next time will be based on his performance.
5) NDP government.
Don't make me laugh!!!
(until the $$$ runs out and the next govt come into power)
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