Ivan now a Cat 4

[Foxtrot]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 060017
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST SUN SEP 05 2004

...DANGEROUS IVAN RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE...MOVING TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD/TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GRENADA AND DEPENDENCIES.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS. INTERESTS
ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IVAN.

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.5 WEST OR ABOUT 760
MILES...1225 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH ...33
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...10.6 N... 48.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER JARVINEN/HENNON

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Crap.

[herpa2003]

Actually, this could be good news for the US. Storms like this often wear themselves out when they become major hurricanes so far from land. Look at Isabel, or Frances, for example.

[FlyCharlestonSC]

well that aint good....

[Foxtrot]

Re:

Actually, this could be good news for the US. Storms like this often wear themselves out when they become major hurricanes so far from land. Look at Isabel, or Frances, for example.

Sometimes, not always. This storm has plenty of warm 80-degree water out ahead of it. Even upper-70 degree water's enough for a hurricane to last long. Besides, it's amazing how strong this hurricane is gicen it's southern position in the Atlantic basin-it's pretty rare to have a storm like Ivan at such lattitudes.

And besides, it's not out of the question that this thing could further intensify. If not the US, it might hit the Lesser antilles or some other island with full force (hopefully not-you saw what happened in Honduras last year when it got hit by a Cat 5).

Foxtrot

[herpa2003]

Re:

And besides, it's not out of the question that this thing could further intensify. If not the US, it might hit the Lesser antilles or some other island with full force (hopefully not-you saw what happened in Honduras last year when it got hit by a Cat 5).

Foxtrot

Yes, they are forecasting it to hit Barbados as a strong Cagetory 4/weak Category 5. It has been decades since that area's last direct hit...

NHC is forecasting it to weaken to a Category 1 once it hits Hispaniola, however. If the forecast holds up (you never know with long range forecasts) the US could have dodged another bullet.

[pbateson]

No good! FL is getting worse!