CIA predicts that the European Union will collapse in 15 years

[uy707]

As far I know the new european constitution calls for a host of things among others are the proposed pan European Foreign Ministry and the appointement of the 2 year-term president replacing the current 6 month system allocated to a specific country.
Personnally, I hope voters will be smart enough to ratify. This constitution can be seen as Europe's life assurance !
Alain

[duplix]

- probably extending the Shengen border free-zone while "freezing" membership applications for 10 to 15 years
- going further with the appointment of the President, 4/5 years instead of 2
- in addition to foreign affairs, quite a few ministries should be transfered
- making sure Euro will be the 25 member's only currency running in 15 years
list goes on

Quite good points. The problem is all 25 members have to agree before anything changes. And some of those are really reluctant to transfer anything to the supranational level. Maybe we should start futher integration with only a limited number of countries, eurozone for example?

What about the new european constitution? Any good? Will it get ratified? What do you think? Personally, I believe the constitution is a major milestone but I am sceptical about ratification.

[uy707]

EU can belie the CIA at its turn, but it clearly needs consolidating a few things by
- probably extending the Shengen border free-zone while "freezing" membership applications for 10 to 15 years
- going further with the appointment of the President, 4/5 years instead of 2
- in addition to foreign affairs, quite a few ministries should be transfered
- making sure Euro will be the 25 member's only currency running in 15 years
list goes on
Alain

[philip]

Actually, the EU does not "consider" countries, it are the countries themselves that consider membership. The EU does not have any means to keep countries within europe's borders from joining. It could not keep former communist countries out (although the 12 were not all too happy with some of them in the early 90s), it can not keep Turkey out, and if Ukraine ever considers membership, the EU has no means to keep it out. (yes, the new 'neighborhood policy' does define the boundries of the EU, but it wont keep european countries like ukraine from joining).

Yes, I know that just expressed it in a wrong way sorry.

[FlyCharlestonSC]

Hehe--I wonder what that would do to the dollar and the Euro.

[duplix]

I will start from the bottom...

"The CIA did not know the Berlin Wall was coming down until the bricks hit them in the head......"

Neither did Stasi, KGB or any intelligence agency around the world. The implosion of the communists world took even most academic researschers by suprise (and caused a crisis in political sciences). Only a few writers did predict it (Vladimir Vojnovitch pops up in my mind...).

EU considers Russia and Ukraine as future members? Sorry but thats wrong and will never be the case.

Actually, the EU does not "consider" countries, it are the countries themselves that consider membership. The EU does not have any means to keep countries within europe's borders from joining. It could not keep former communist countries out (although the 12 were not all too happy with some of them in the early 90s), it can not keep Turkey out, and if Ukraine ever considers membership, the EU has no means to keep it out. (yes, the new 'neighborhood policy' does define the boundries of the EU, but it wont keep european countries like ukraine from joining).

On a side note, I am against a further extension...its called European Union after all...

Yes, that is why a large part of Europe is not a member. We, in the EU, like to consider ourselves as 'europe', which is far from reality. (compare it to the US calling itself 'North America', but keep in mind that there are over 250M people living in non-eu europe, excluding Turkey, which i personally consider 'europe').

No way not going to happen. The CIA and the U.S gov't should be terrified of the EU. Both Economically and militarily a truly united EU could sway its influence around the world more then the U.S does and really spell trouble for the U.S economy.

Military, it is a dwarf compared to the US (if truly united, it would perhaps be half as big). The US military power is really impressing and totally unmatched. But the EU does generally have a far greater legitimacy in the world than the US has. In a world where the use of military power is more costly (and thus the threat of it less effective) than any time before in history, that soft power may well counterbalance the military disadvantage the EU has.

Now...about the topic: in general, i found the CIA analysis to be quite good...

In a devastating indictment of EU economic prospects, the report warns: "The current EU welfare state is unsustainable and the lack of any economic revitalisation could lead to the splintering or, at worst, disintegration of the EU, undermining its ambitions to play a heavyweight international role."

It adds that the EU’s economic growth rate is dragged down by Germany and its restrictive labour laws. Reforms there - and in France and Italy to lesser extents - remain key to whether the EU as a whole can break out of its "slow-growth pattern".

The report says: "Either European countries adapt their workforces, reform their social welfare, education and tax systems, and accommodate growing immigrant populations [chiefly from Muslim countries] or they face a period of protracted economic stasis."

Overall, I agree with this. But lets not overreact: part of the EU economy is stagnating...but in 2015 the average EU citizen will still have more welfare than today, only relatively less compared to the rest of the world. On the other hand, things are changing here, although slowly at this moment, so who knows what might happen in the future...

On the EU collapsing: it is a possibility, although very unlikely. There is the risk of imperial overstretch, but this will more likely cause a stagnation of EU integration rather than a total collapse of the system itself. (But even in the case of total stagnation, some central EU countries could draw the card of 'europe of two speeds')

It also predicts the end of Nato and post-1945 military alliances.

NATO has been long overdue if you ask me. It did a great job during the cold war, but it should have been kicked out along with warshaupact. There was a brief chance to revitalise the alliance in the mid and late 90s, but it has become obsolete (actually, the US gave the fatal blow by attacking afghanistan with a 'coalition of the willing', despite NATO calling art 5 and offering its services. And this is even before the NATO crisis shortly before the Irak war). But like a lot of obsolete bureaucratic organisations, it refuses to dissapear....

What people seem to overlook is the fact that the EU is the single greatest political achievement of post WOII in the world. Now the communist system has collapsed and the centre of the world's political attention has shifted away from europe, we should put our energy in europe itself, in order to keep what we have and trully build sustainable peace in a united europe, and we should do this independently from the US or any other world power.

As a EU citizen, I would like the EU countries to concentrate on the europe (as stated before, a lot bigger than the EU) rather than on NATO, or on the rest of the world. What good is it that the Europe is mingling itself in conflicts all over the world, if it is unable to achieve peace on its own continent (think Balkan)?

"The EU, rather than Nato, will increasingly become the primary institution for Europe, and the role Europeans shape for themselves on the world stage is most likely to be projected through it,"

[kcmh]

to quote a good movie:

"The CIA did not know the Berlin Wall was coming down until the bricks hit them in the head......"

[DAL767-400ER]

CIA predicts that the European Union will collapse in 15 years

EU considers Russia and Ukraine as future members? Sorry but thats wrong and will never be the case.
On a side note, I am against a further extension...its called European Union after all...

Now that Yushtschenko (or however you spell him) won the elections, one of the first things talked about, be it politicians or press, was the possibility of teh Ukraine joining the EU in the foreseeable future, and that talk had been pretty intense for some time. And Russia joining the EU is a rumor that has been coming and going for years now. Personally, I gotta agree, no more expansion, and that includes Turkey.

-Colin

[tommyalf]

No way not going to happen. The CIA and the U.S gov't should be terrified of the EU. Both Economically and militarily a truly united EU could sway its influence around the world more then the U.S does and really spell trouble for the U.S economy.

If we were smart the America's should look to do the same to compete effectively with the EU. North, Central, and South America have more resources, population, and economic opportunity then Europe if we'd help stabilize and develope our neighbors. The American continents united would easily dominant the world economy and military.

[philip]

I predict the CIA will collaps within 15 years, replaced by a more evil institution. Though quite honestly, looking at some of the new member (Poland, Czeck Republic, Slovakia) and some possible candidates (Turkey, Ukraine, Russia), the CIA might not be wrong after all.

-Colin

EU considers Russia and Ukraine as future members? Sorry but thats wrong and will never be the case.
On a side note, I am against a further extension...its called European Union after all...

[philip]

lol didn't I read the same BS on Anet yesterday?

[DAL767-400ER]

CIA predicts that the European Union will collapse in 15 years

I predict the CIA will collaps within 15 years, replaced by a more evil institution. Though quite honestly, looking at some of the new member (Poland, Czeck Republic, Slovakia) and some possible candidates (Turkey, Ukraine, Russia), the CIA might not be wrong after all.

-Colin

[matt1168]

How very ... interesting

[UFOSPACE99]

Now this is the same CIA, that said there were WMDs in Iraq!. Why do I view this report with a great deal of skepictism? However, I do believe that NATO's days (years actually) are probably numbered and frankly it will not be too soon as far as I am concerned.

Aldo

[babypurin]

THE CIA has predicted that the European Union will break-up within 15 years unless it radically reforms its ailing welfare systems.

The report by the intelligence agency, which forecasts how the world will look in 2020, warns that Europe could be dragged into economic decline by its ageing population. It also predicts the end of Nato and post-1945 military alliances.

In a devastating indictment of EU economic prospects, the report warns: "The current EU welfare state is unsustainable and the lack of any economic revitalisation could lead to the splintering or, at worst, disintegration of the EU, undermining its ambitions to play a heavyweight international role."

It adds that the EU’s economic growth rate is dragged down by Germany and its restrictive labour laws. Reforms there - and in France and Italy to lesser extents - remain key to whether the EU as a whole can break out of its "slow-growth pattern".

Reflecting growing fears in the US that the pain of any proper reform would be too much to bear, the report adds that the experts it consulted "are dubious that the present political leadership is prepared to make even this partial break, believing a looming budgetary crisis in the next five years would be the more likely trigger for reform".

The EU is also set for a looming demographic crisis because of a drop in birth rates and increased longevity, with devastating economic consequences.

The report says: "Either European countries adapt their workforces, reform their social welfare, education and tax systems, and accommodate growing immigrant populations [chiefly from Muslim countries] or they face a period of protracted economic stasis."

As a result of the increased immigration needed, the report predicts that Europe’s Muslim population is set to increase from around 13% today to between 22% and 37% of the population by 2025, potentially triggering tensions.

The report predicts that America’s relationships with Europe will be "dramatically altered" over the next 15 years, in a move away from post-Second World War institutions. Nato could disappear and be replaced by increased EU action.

"The EU, rather than Nato, will increasingly become the primary institution for Europe, and the role Europeans shape for themselves on the world stage is most likely to be projected through it," the report adds. "Whether the EU will develop an army is an open question."

Defence spending by individual European countries, including the UK, France, and Germany, is likely to fall further behind China and other countries over the next 15 years. Collectively these countries will outspend all others except the US and possibly China.

The expected next technological revolution will involve the convergence of nano, bio, information and materials technology and will further bolster China and India’s prospects, the study predicts. Both countries are investing in basic research in these fields and are well placed to be leaders. But whereas the US will retain its overall lead, the report warns "Europe risks slipping behind Asia in some of these technologies".

For Europe, an increasing preference for natural gas may reinforce regional relationships, such as those with Russia or North Africa, given the inter-dependence of pipeline delivery, the report argues. But this means the EU will have to deal with Russia, which the report also warns "faces a severe demographic crisis resulting from low birth rates, poor medical care and a potentially explosive Aids situation".

Russia also borders an "unstable region" in the Caucasus and Central Asia, "the effects of which - Muslim extremism, terrorism and endemic conflict - are likely to continue spilling over into Russia".

The report also largely en dorses forecasts that by 2020 China’s gross domestic product will exceed that of individual western economic powers except for the US. India’s GDP will have overtaken or be overtaking European economies.

Because of the sheer size of China’s and India’s populations their standard of living need not approach European and western levels to become important economic powers.

The economies of other developing countries, such as Brazil, could surpass all but the largest European countries by 2020.

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Although they provide a lot of information and statistics their is still a lot of things which cannot be calculated or predicted (tsunami? ). I wonder what else our "brilliant" CIA has come up with next...