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Gabriel
Gabriel
Senior Member
Last Activity: Today, 02:52
Joined: 2008-01-18
Location: Buenos Aires - Argentina
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  • The video started showing a -200 for the intro and then switched to the -8, possibly doe to what was available in the PC sim that the youtuber was using. Hence the joke (nobody said it was a funny joke, but it's time to get over it).

    I think that taking off from a closed runway may have been a factor. Who knows what kind of FOD you can have when operating from a closed runway [/blue font]
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  • 747 fails to climb after VR engine failure

    I want to summon our resident 747 pilot (or pilots?) to see what you think of this incident.
    Although the incident was real, there are several things that look suspicious to me (not the smallest of which is that a 747 should have zero problem climbing out on 3 engines at sea level) that makes me think that the story as told in this video (on in the Wikipedia article, which is basically the script used for the video) is missing some things or getting things wrong.

    Unfortunately I could not find better references.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qaYp3jUiPzc
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  • You said that several times and I never understood the logic. How is having or lacking feathers related to being up there by the grace of God or by some other reason? And in any case how does that relate with your duty of keeping your plane, crew and pax safe? Would having feathers, or being an atheist, relieve you from that duty?...
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  • Got you now. However, you have to take exposure to risk into account. I am sure that your friend doesn't fly 3 times per day so, although the chances of dying in one specific flight may be bigger than the chances of dying by chocking on one specific meal, the chances of dying by chocking with a meal are still much higher than the ones of dying in a flight (at some point in your friend's life).

    At the end of the day, you have 100% of chances of dying. The question is how and when....
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  • I really don't get your math. 1 in 2535 is 1 in 2535. What does 1 in 194 million have to do with it?

    And is not "dying from eating". 1 in 2535 persons on average dies from chocking to death with food. That is just one out of several ways of dying from eating, so the chances of dying from eating are even higher....
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  • Of course, there is a rational fear that is proportional to the risk. Commercial aviation is full of intrinsic risks, which are addressed extremely well so they almost never materialize in a fatal way.
    Now... driving or being drove, earing, taking a shower, taking a walk.... all these activities have their intrinsic risks, and are more likely to kill you.

    If you don't refrain from doing these activities, or you can do them without needing to take a valium or get drunk to manage the fear, or without becoming extremely uneasy, anxious and sweaty and hyperventilating due to the terror you feel when you do them, but you do when flying or intending to fly, then the fear is irrational....
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  • I wonder how you came up with these numbers. I don't have statistics but it intuitively feels incorrect to me. Please share your calculations.

    Also, fatal accidents in commercial aviation are so rare (especially in the US and other western countries) that it is hard to make meaningful statistics.
    As an example, there was 1 Death in scheduled passenger flights in the US in airplanes that were neither propeller planes nor regional jets, in the last 10 years. But if you had made the same research just 18 days ago the number would have jumped to 266, taking your 1-in-13-billon (if correct) "just" 1 in 48 million (and it suddenly becomes irrelevant whether you include or exclude regional jets).

    In any case, the chances are extremely low to the point of being almost negligible. Make your friend compare the chances of dying in a plane crash with the chances of dying while doing any of the other activities he or she does daily. In the United States, the...
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  • https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...rport-rcna6852
    (no subscription needed, unlike Evan's link)

    https://flightaware.com/live/flight/AAL1182

    How did the guy survive 1:40 h above 20,000ft, of which 1:10 was at 37,000 ft?
    And not only survive, but you can see him standing next to the plane and in good condition in the video.

    Evan your number seem to be right. This would be gear stowaway number 130, of which 100 did not make it. I am more surprised by the 30 that did, though.
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  • Gabriel
    started a topic Dubai Air Show results

    Dubai Air Show results

    Airbus 404 orders, Boeing 101 orders.

    If anybody had any doubt about the importance of the MoM market, the type most sold was the A321 neo and the 2nd was the A321 XRL neo.
    Another strategical failure for Boeing.

    Oh, and the 3rd one was the A220.
    Yet another strategical failure for Boeing.

    Boeing has basically nothing to compete in the narrow body and MoM markets, except for 737 MAX for current 737 NG users.
    But while Airbus has something to offer to Boeing 737 users, Boeing has nothing to offer to A320 users. And has nothing for the MoM and regional sectors after not reaching a deal with Embraer.

    Good luck Boeing with the 787 and the 777X, because in the civil aviation world that's all you have left.
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  • Again, the problem is not augmentation software per se (the NEO has a shitload of augmentation software). Had they designed the MCAS as it is now, with built-in redundancy and limiting its input to ensure it is not catastrophic, they would have gotten away with it. The added sim training now required by the FAA may be justified, but it is based more on politics. I don't think there is anything that the FAA knows now that was not known before that would justify sim training now but not before. The MAX and the MCAS now is very similar to what the FAA thought it was back then....
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  • The following ones are not so obvious to me:



    I think that Boeing could have designed the MAX from the beginning with a sound MCAS (like the one it has now) and it would have been very safe, competitive against the NEO (especially for airlines already operating the NG) and same type and differences training would have been enough.

    Even taking greed into account, it is not understandable (to me) why the MCAS was designed and approved the way it was....
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  • I think that I Argentina you just cant prosecute an organization (persona jurídica) with criminal charges, only with civil charges (liability). Criminal charges are placed against "personas físicas" only. The ide being that a company can pay for damages but the entities that make the decisions knowing that they are illegal, or with gross disregard for the life and safety, etc, are human beings....
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  • Yes, that's strange, since the NTSB says that the damage was found in the linkage of the geared tabs and not in the control tabs.



    SO it was indeed an almost exact repeat of the Ameristar accident (except that Ameristar had a much longer runway and a more friendly overrun area).

    I agree with you, Evan, an EAD is in order. Give the pilots a broom with a long stick to move the elevators as part of the pre-flight checks....
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  • Well, that settles that part....
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  • I don't think it was the same issue because the elevator (at least o1 side) would be stuck in the full nose-down position, which doesn't seem to match what we see in the pictures. Unless it unstuck during the accident sequence. But I have already heard reports (rumors) of the pilot saying that they reached Vr and the plane would not rotate from 3 different sources, including one the same day of the accident. Note that the Ameristar situation is not the only reason why a plane may fail to rotate....
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  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iyZT79WaaSs...
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