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Flight International is saying NWA will order 15 to 18 of the 787's. I don't have a subscription to their on-line edition, so I can't post the link. In any case, though FI's numbers are different from Skyliner's, it looks like an NWA order is imminent.
New twinjet selected over rival Airbus proposal in crucial fleet contest, shoring up Boeing's US Customer base
Northwest Airlines is poised to announce its selection of the Boeing 787 over the competing Airbus A350 in a crucially strategic fleet re-equipment battle that could have knock-on effects for both manufacturers, say sources familiar with carriers evaluation."
"...Airbus had been optimistic of a breakthrough at Northwest with the A350 since last year when the airline firmed up options for additional A330-200/300s. The carrier has 15 A330-200/300s in service, and a similar number of new Airbus twinjets due for delivery between now and 2007. Airbus hoped the high degree of cockpit and systems would provide a better incentive to Northwest..."
"...The Northwest decision could have implications for at least two other impending decisions where the A350 and 787 are against each other, at Singapore Airlines and Qatar Airways..."
The FI article doesn't indicate what those "implications" might be.
If this does happen, an obvious blow to Airbus as both NW and KE will operate a A330/787 mix. I wonder if Airbus thought current A330 operators would be a relative "shoe in" for the A350. Many have commented on various boards that Airbus has spent too much of their muscle on the A380. If more potential A350 customers fall, this would solidify that argument IMO.
It is too early to discount the A350 given Airbus' penchant of announcing Orders during the Air shows. There are still a few more contests up for grabs (AC, EI, QR, EK, QF to name a few) where the A350 is in the thick of things. However, if the NW order is indeed confirmed, it is still a blow to the Airbus A350 program given that its sibling is an incumbent. I guess we will know more after the Paris Airshow if the A350 will get the final go-ahead.
That would be excellent news for Boeing, although I'd guess an NW order is more likely than an AI order. I'm sure the 787 would look awesome in NW colors.
Northwest in talks to order Boeing 787s - WSJ
Mon Apr 11, 2005 09:04 PM ET
NEW YORK, April 11 (Reuters) - Northwest Airlines Corp. (NWAC.O: Quote, Profile, Research) is in talks to order as many as 18 Boeing 787 Dreamliner aircraft with a list value of $2.1 billion, the Wall Street Journal reported in its online edition on Monday.
The order would defeat a competing proposal from Northwest supplier Airbus (EAD.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) (EAD.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) , the paper said, citing people familiar with the situation.
Those people told the paper that Northwest selected engines from General Electric Co. (GE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) over those made by Rolls-Royce Plc (RR.L: Quote, Profile, Research) .
Northwest spokesman Bill Mellon declined to comment on the article. "We continue to talk to aircraft manufacturers about their various products," he said.
Nicolaas Groenveld-Meijer, a spokesman for Boeing Co. (BA.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , said the company does not discuss ongoing negotiations with airlines. He did say the 787 offers superior operating economics for airlines because of a 20 percent increase in fuel efficiency.
While airlines have been struggling with higher fuel costs and aggressive discounting to drive passenger traffic, Northwest "maintains considerable balance-sheet liquidity" with more than $2.4 billion at the end of 2004, the Moody's bond rating firm said in a recent note.
Moody's is considering a cut of Northwest's debt because of financial losses, but Northwest has sidestepped bankruptcy, a fate that has ensnared UAL Corp. (UALAQ.OB: Quote, Profile, Research) and US Airways Group Inc. (UAIRQ.OB: Quote, Profile, Research)
Boeing has received 203 orders and commitments from 17 airlines worldwide for the 787 since launching the aircraft last year.
I agree we will know more after the Paris Air Show. Still, a few things are pretty clear by now:
1. Airbus has no real answer for the 788 as a 767-size replacement. The prospect of the A358 simply is not enough to keep even A330 customers like KE and NW from buying the 788 if they have a need for that sized plane. While the A358 will eventually find some customers, most of this smaller-sized market will go to Boeing.
2. The unknown is the higher end of the market -- the 789 versus the 358 or 359. The EK and QR contests in particular will be very interesting here -- the 789 isn't well defined yet and hasn't sold yet. Also the when of the 789 (or both Airbus models) hasn't been exactly determined. Lots of things can happen here -- for example will the 789 be big enough to met QR or EK's needs? It's here that Airbus has its best chance of achieving significant victories along with package deals across varying sizes of aircraft.
Paris airshow will be interesting, might be make or break for the 350. Hard to say how many orders airbus will unveil there, there was some word a while back it was going to be a lot (a380 though), but time will tell I guess.
If the a350 does go the way of the do-do it'll be interesting to see what fills it's place, clean sheet design would be nice, or some kind of sonic cruiser, you know, leap past the 787 if what. But then that'll cost big bucks and who is going to buy stuff like that (as the sonic cruiser indicated), so who knows maybe a safe design like the a350 is just what airbus needs, they don't have to beat the 787, just do well, if Boeing sell more 787's so be it, airbus have got a380's and what not to sell as well, might as well have a balance.
I doubt Airbus at this time can afford a major design project on the scale needed to really rival the 787.
The 350 is merely an adapted A330 and probably for cost reasons more than anything (and to have something quickly).
Seeing as Boeing almost went bust on 747 development and is now in their own words betting the company on the 787 (though that may be rethoric more than anything) any massive scale project on the same scale by Airbus at this time would make their denials of being completely government funded with no profit targets look extremely unbelievable indeed
Northwest poised to order 787s, sources say
Union negotiations could complicate announcement
By JAMES WALLACE
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER AEROSPACE REPORTER
In what would be an important early victory over Airbus with a major U.S. airline, The Boeing Co. may be close to winning an order for its new 787 jetliner from Northwest Airlines, industry sources confirmed yesterday.
Boeing has 203 firm orders or commitments for its 787, but with the U.S. airline industry still reeling with serious financial troubles, Continental Airlines is the only major U.S. airline to so far step up and announce an order for Boeing's next all-new jet that is due to enter service in 2008.
The timing of an announcement is not clear, but the sources said Northwest is looking to place an order for as many as 18 of the Boeing jets, including options.
The 787 has a list price of $120 million, though airlines typically get significant discounts.
One complication could be talks between Northwest and its unions. Northwest has said it wants to try to cut $1.1 billion in labor costs. An announcement now that it plans to order new jets, even if their delivery is several years off, might not sit well with unions that are being asked to make concessions.
Continental had made its order for 10 787s contingent on winning union concessions.
Neither Boeing nor Northwest would comment, but the sources said Northwest decided to go with the 787 after considering -- and rejecting -- the A350, a competing jet offered by Airbus.
That would represent a setback for Airbus in its efforts to promote the A350 as an alternative to the 787, given that Northwest has a growing fleet of Airbus A330 planes. That should have given Airbus the home-court advantage because the planned A350 would be a derivative of the A330, only with an improved wing and the more fuel-efficient engines under development for the 787.
Northwest operates a mixed fleet of Boeing and Airbus planes, but in recent years has favored Airbus over Boeing. That also makes its choice of the 787 over the A350 more significant for Boeing in an early matchup of the 787 against the Airbus A350. Northwest was the U.S. launch customer for the Airbus A320, which competes against Boeing's 737, and it is the first U.S. airline to operate A330-200s.
Kurt Ebenhoch, a spokesman for Northwest, which is based in Eagan, Minn., said yesterday that the airline continues to have talks with "both airplane manufacturers" about its future fleet requirements.
But The Wall Street Journal reported last night that Northwest has already selected General Electric to supply the engines for its 787s. That would be an important win for the U.S. engine maker over rival Rolls-Royce, which is also developing a new engine for the 787.
Few airlines that have so far placed firm orders for the 787, or made commitments to buy the plane, have selected an engine maker. Of those that have, Rolls-Royce has won all but one of the deals.
GE also will supply engines for the A350 if Airbus goes ahead with development of that plane. Rolls-Royce has said it is weighing its options for an A350 engine. Both the GE and Rolls-Royce engines under development for the 787 would need modifications before they could be used on the A350.
Airbus is expected to decide by the Paris Air Show in June if it will go ahead with development of the A350, which would enter service around 2010, or two years after the 787. Airbus has been shopping the A350 to customers since late last year and has said it expects to have 50 orders by the air show. So far, however, Airbus has received only 10 commitments from one European airline for its A350.
Boeing's latest 787 order came Sunday night, when Korean Air Lines said it will buy 10 jets and take options on 10 more.
Korean Air Lines was one of about a dozen airlines that Airbus had said it was in talks with about the A350.
Last week, during a Boeing 787 briefing for reporters, Mike Bair, vice president and general manager of the program, said he is expecting a "really good year" for 787 orders. He said Boeing has proposals out with about 40 airlines for about 600 potential orders.
He also acknowledged that Northwest was probably Boeing's best chance at winning another 787 order from a major U.S. airline in the near term, given the shaky state of the U.S. airline industry.
"If it doesn't happen within a few months, then it probably will be a while," he said of a possible 787 order by Northwest.
Northwest and US Airways are the only carriers in this country to order the A330-200, which has been in operation since 1998. US Airways, which is trying to recover from bankruptcy, has not taken delivery of any of the planes. The A350-800 would have the same size fuselage as the A330-200. The bigger A350-900 would have the same size fuselage as the A330-300.
Northwest ordered 10 A330-200s. They are now being used on routes to Japan from Portland, Seattle and San Francisco.
When Northwest initially ordered widebody jets from Airbus in January 2001, it was for the A330-300, a bigger version that carries more passengers but has less range than the A330-200.
Northwest ordered 24 of those planes after a hard-fought competition in which Boeing was offering its 767 and 777 jets. Later, Northwest swapped 10 of those orders for the A330-200 so that it could offer non-stop trans-Pacific service from the United States.
Late last year, the union representing Northwest pilots approved a new contract that includes a pay scale for pilots who fly either the 787 or A350. Northwest pilots are the first in the United States with a contract that spells out pay rates for those two planes.
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