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  • Satellite Destruction

    Anyone is following the news about the military satellite destruction?
    Are they going to hit it with a "MODIFIED" ICBM missile?
    I wonder if it has enough fuel to get into LEO (Low Earth Orbit)?
    A Former Airdisaster.Com Forum (senior member)....

  • #2
    I still remember the large pieces of SkyLab found in western Australia, hope this thing burns pretty well...
    A Former Airdisaster.Com Forum (senior member)....

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    • #3
      Originally posted by AVION1
      Anyone is following the news about the military satellite destruction?
      Are they going to hit it with a "MODIFIED" ICBM missile?
      I wonder if it has enough fuel to get into LEO (Low Earth Orbit)?
      Sure - more discussion in the Aviation Safety Forum (under the premise that the satellite might fall near to an airplane perhaps.)

      They're going to use a modified "Standard Missile 3" from an AEGIS missile cruiser in the North Pacific. (I think 3 missiles from 3 ships, which will give them 2 more tries if they miss the first time. Won't look good if the Chinese could do it in one shot.)
      Terry
      Lurking at JP since the BA 777 at Heathrow and AD lost responsiveness to the throttles.
      How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth? Sherlock Holmes

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      • #4
        Originally posted by AVION1
        Anyone is following the news about the military satellite destruction?
        Are they going to hit it with a "MODIFIED" ICBM missile?
        I wonder if it has enough fuel to get into LEO (Low Earth Orbit)?
        Highly dubious they destroy it because it poses a threat to the environment. I rather think they don't want anything of it being accessible to other people. After all, it is the USA's most advanced spy satellite, and at the same time the biggest billion Dollar fiasco.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by AVION1
          Anyone is following the news about the military satellite destruction?
          Are they going to hit it with a "MODIFIED" ICBM missile?
          I wonder if it has enough fuel to get into LEO (Low Earth Orbit)?
          Here is how I understand it will work, mainly from reading the various articles out there on the defense blogs:

          The weapon that the Pentagon wants to use to shoot down a failing satellite is well-tested, SM-3.



          The U.S. Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense system uses the Standard Missile (SM)-3 to make "direct intercepts."

          That means there's no explosion in space. Instead, the SM-3 destroys its target by sheer kinetic energy (more than 130 megajoules worth).

          The missile uses two stages to get into near-space, and a third, kinetic warhead to strike. The interceptor finds its targets largely because its seeker has been programmed to look for a certain type of object (The SM-3 Block1B, the upgrade to the current model, is supposed to have a two-color infrared seeker which presumably would increase its discrimination capabilities finding a warm sat in front of cold space bkgnd.)

          Right now, the SM-3 has tested against short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, and has made twelve intercepts out of fourteen attempts during testing. These intercepts have been made while the target is in space (tests have been at altitudes of over 100 miles), which provides it with a hot target against the cold environs of space. The most recent flight test intercept attempt by a U.S. ship occurred on Nov.6, 2007 and was a success.

          Raytheon, which fabricates the interceptor, explains how it's supposed to work:

          As a ballistic missile threat rises above the horizon, [the] ship’s radar acquires, begins tracking, and the weapon system begins calculating the engagement solution. Upon command from the ship’s weapon system, the SM-3 boosts out of the launcher and establishes radio communication with the ship. After MK 72 booster burnout, the MK 104 Dual Thrust Rocket Motor (DTRM) ignites. In-flight communications from the ship guide the missile toward the predicted intercept point. After MK 104 burnout and separation, the MK 136 Third Stage Rocket Motor (TSRM) ignites, propelling the third stage out of the atmosphere. Throughout its flight, the missile continues to receive in-flight target updates from the ship to refine the intercept guidance solution. The TSRM contains two separate pulses that can be initiated to optimize the engagement timeline. During flyout, the third stage pitches over and ejects the nosecone, exposing the SM-3 Kinetic Warhead (KW). Following TSRM burnout roughly 30 seconds before intercept, the SM-3 KW separates from the third stage and immediately searches for the target based on pointing data received from the ship. The KW acquires the ballistic missile warhead with its long-wavelength imaging infrared seeker. The KW’s Solid Divert and Attitude Control System precisely maneuvers the KW to enable a hit-to-kill intercept. As the KW closes on the target, it will identify the lethal payload area and shift its guidance aimpoint to ensure a lethal hit, destroying the target with more than 130 megajoules of kinetic energy, or the equivalent of a 10 ton truck traveling at 600 miles per hour.

          OTOH things have gone wrong. The primary cause of one of the few U.S. flight test failures is the new guidance control system (Divert and Attitude Control System) whose ceramic components cracked during a test.

          This problem has not been remedied and is not being used in its most advanced mode, so maybe the SM-3's maneuverability against faster moving targets may be affected. Given all of the tests so far have dealt with targets well known down to the smallest detail in reference how they would behave in-flight there is no prediction how it will behave against unknown targets that may require last-minute changes in its trajectory.

          The Pentagon has only 21 SM-3 interceptors in total. For the proposed shoot-down, they will make modifications to three SM-3 interceptors so that they can look for the satellite.

          The modifications involve changing the software to target a satellite rather than a missile as it is intended for missiles traveling at 3 to 4 kilometers per second; the satellite has a speed of 7 to 8 kilometers per second.

          One of the program's biggest flaws: if it doesn't know what to look for, it is unlikely to make an intercept (situational awareness is pretty slim), and since the tests to date have all been highly scripted, the system has not had any practice of on the fly intercept attempts.

          CNN says that "a floating X-band radar has to be modified to track the satellite's trajectory." That would be the massive - and massively controversial - Sea-Based X-Band Radar, which, in theory, has the ability to tell which way a baseball is spinning from 3,000 miles away and would guide the interceptor. But it has had probs with the elements and high seas and has been in and out of repair for years, so no prediction whether it will work.



          Rattler
          AD.info? Rings a bell somehow...

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          • #6
            So, there is "high" possibility of scraching the old paint on the satellite, instead of destroying it..
            A Former Airdisaster.Com Forum (senior member)....

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            • #7
              Originally posted by AVION1
              So, there is "high" possibility of scraching the old paint on the satellite, instead of destroying it..
              If the missile hits (and there will be no explosive, as I understand it), it stands a good chance a breaking the satellite into smaller pieces, which will facilitate orbital decay and cause burn-up more rapidly and more controllably.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by AVION1
                So, there is "high" possibility of scraching the old paint on the satellite, instead of destroying it..
                Probably didnt make it clear enough that I am not only reporting:

                From my personal POV, my bet: This thing will hit, and *first* missile, dead center ot.

                A completely diffent angle, where will the rest land? A high probabilty (should there be anything left) is..... CANADA!!!

                Opinion, agreed, but honed over yrs of reading stuff like the above mentioned.



                The red line represents the path of the satellite.

                The pink shape, bounded by blue lines, is the "restricted area" above the cruisers (the military has blocked out almost the same area, 24 hours later, in case the first shot misses.)

                And those yellow splotches are Hawaii.

                As you can see, the Navy plans to take the satellite out over the Pacific.

                More startling is where the debris cloud will go. AT (see wired def blog): "To my considerable surprise, it's on an ascending pass that will take the debris cloud across central Canada a few minutes later. Then across a bit of western Africa and eastern Australia."

                I recall the SpaceLab (? thats the right name? dont remember correctly) incident, we were as Mobile Staff Comms Centers (covertly, unbeknowst to population in Europe AFAIK) on 36 hrs active alert passing "an exercise" in our vehicles communicating with the whole planet, all JIC of cause,...

                No sleep, lots of beer, no dough, and no girls to talk to .... Great memories...

                IIRC I solo climbed a 50mtr antennae mast in the morning at first sunlight to adjust an antennae, comforting my vertigo with having smoked somthing you more or less easily get in Europe, never will forget that sunrise...

                While long outta of it, I guess there are thousands on the planet passing the same exercise *tonight*... with a total lunar eclipse (last til yr 2015, max in Europe around 0400 GMT, FEB 21) in Europe...

                Have a nice time guys! We appreciate your effort!

                Rattler

                UPDATE: ShootDown Delayed due to bad weather.... Longer time out there waiting for the debris to hit your folks... R.
                AD.info? Rings a bell somehow...

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by rattler
                  A completely diffent angle, where will the rest land? A high probabilty (should there be anything left) is..... CANADA!!!
                  I don't think this means that material is more likely to land in Canada after the interception. The expectation is that the interception will cause the satellite's remains to enter the atmosphere during the course of the next three to four orbits, so material could potentially reach the surface anywhere on its orbit. Of course, the whole point of the exercise is to prevent this by reducing the satellite to smaller pieces, which facilitates burn-up.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by rattler

                    UPDATE: ShootDown Delayed due to bad weather.... Longer time out there waiting for the debris to hit your folks... R.
                    Rattler - great summary of the shootdown from the military perspective.

                    Looks like it might be visible, and they might still get a chance to hit it today. Would be cool if we could see the eclipse of the moon and pieces of the satellite flying by too.

                    Site here:

                    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23262831/

                    Although if it's going to hit Canada, maybe I'll just hide in the basement.

                    Debris from the Department of Defense's planned shootdown of a spy satellite may be visible to skywatchers in the northwestern United States and Canada, according to the U.S. Naval Observatory.

                    Although it's hard to predict what will happen if the missile succeeds in impacting the satellite, there is a chance that observers will see broken-off pieces of the satellite reflecting sunlight or burning up as they fall through Earth's atmosphere. The window of opportunity for the attempt is open for the next 10 days or so.
                    Terry
                    Lurking at JP since the BA 777 at Heathrow and AD lost responsiveness to the throttles.
                    How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth? Sherlock Holmes

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                    • #11
                      Viewing the Satellite

                      Oh yeah, if the satellite is still around, you can track it here.

                      http://www.heavens-above.com/

                      According to the map, it looks like the satellite is getting pretty close to Hawaii now. Will they pull the trigger?
                      Last edited by FireLight; 2008-02-21, 01:50. Reason: Location Update
                      Terry
                      Lurking at JP since the BA 777 at Heathrow and AD lost responsiveness to the throttles.
                      How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth? Sherlock Holmes

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        So this is a "Polar Satellite" because of the orbit, GPS, TV, WEATHER satellites are "Geostationary", they are in one spot all the time.
                        I wonder if it is easy to move an old TV satellite (geostationary) in the path of this military junk and wait until they crash... (??)
                        It is cheaper and 100% more effective.
                        A Former Airdisaster.Com Forum (senior member)....

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                        • #13
                          msnbc.com: BREAKING NEWS: U.S. hits dead spy satellite with missile, military source says

                          AirDisaster.com Forum Member 2004-2008

                          Originally posted by orangehuggy
                          the most dangerous part of a flight is not the take off or landing anymore, its when a flight crew member goes to the toilet

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by James Bond
                            msnbc.com: BREAKING NEWS: U.S. hits dead spy satellite with missile, military source says

                            http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23265613/
                            Interesting. US-193 passed south of Lethbridge at around 7:10 MST (9:10 EST). When it flew over it was a fairly bright single spot of light, although I only picked it up for the last few seconds before it passed into darkness moderately high above and to the left of the moon (which was partway into the eclipse) so it seemed to me at the time that it hadn't been fired at. Based on that observation, I was kind of thinking (hoping) that they probably wouldn't take another crack at it until tomorrow. The article indicates it's destruction occurred at 10:26 EST, so they must have fired at it on the next pass over Hawaii.

                            It will be interesting to see what, if anything, is visible on it's flight path tomorrow evening and how events develop from here.

                            On the plus side, it looks like they can maintain their bragging rights with the Chinese.
                            Terry
                            Lurking at JP since the BA 777 at Heathrow and AD lost responsiveness to the throttles.
                            How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth? Sherlock Holmes

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                            • #15
                              Do you think the chinese are still laughing at us?
                              A Former Airdisaster.Com Forum (senior member)....

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