A-380 Deliveries STILL Behind

[Dmmoore]

Tristar was sold at a price below cost and forced Lockheed out of the civilian market, partly due to the competition from A300, same as the DC-10/MD-11, it was the DC-9 and versions whom payed for this bird.
B747 nor A340/A380 isnīt a 3-holer and a completely different aircraft than the A300,
the A340 suffers from competition from the B777, another great 2-holer.

The Tri-Star was priced below cost to compete with the DC-10, not the A300.

[Alessandro]

Tristar did compete against the A300 as well, but the main competitor was surely the DC-10.

[Verbal]

Tristar did compete against the A300 as well, but the main competitor was surely the DC-10.

Early A300s did not have the range of the DC-10s and L1011s.

[Alessandro]

Early A300s did not have the range of the DC-10s and L1011s.

Sure, but how often do you use the full range of an airplane?

[IntheShade]

Sure, but how often do you use the full range of an airplane?

Quite often if you're in a thing called the aviation business. Especially with something like the A380 which was designed to be an Intercontinental cruiser.

Do you know anything about International reserve fuel?

Right now we are being confronted by the specter of a global Swine Flu pandemic. One of the most fertile confined enviroments will be a A380 cruising around the Orient loaded to the gills like a Greyhound Bus with 500+ budget Asian passengers.

It's just a fact.

And then when you realize that the air circulation is actually reduced from normal levels for economy you really understand why.

Economically the A380 is also a disaster in the making. It's one thing to fill an airplane for peak travel but the everyday economics will be horrendous when you consider the non peak economics of operating a less than full Jumbo cruiser that is heavily leveraged to the banks or leasing company.

There was an interesting lesson during the start of deregulation. American Airlines invested heavily in the DC-10 while Braniff Airlines bought the equivliant amount of seats for each city pairing to compete with American but did it with two BOEING 727 for each DC-10.

Thus Braniff offered two departure times for each American departure. In addition they operationally had the option to combine flights instead of flying an airplane empty and losing money in the process. Also operationally if a mechanical grounded a flight they had a operational airframe to pu passengers on.

If you know your aviation history you would know that this method hammered American and nearly put them out of business. Unfortuneatley instead of sticking to this formula Lawrence Harding overexpanded Braniff and bankrupted one of the great airlines.

But the point is: The A380 is sheer folly.

[Alessandro]

Quite often if you're in a thing called the aviation business. Especially with something like the A380 which was designed to be an Intercontinental cruiser.

Do you know anything about International reserve fuel?

Right now we are being confronted by the specter of a global Swine Flu pandemic. One of the most fertile confined enviroments will be a A380 cruising around the Orient loaded to the gills like a Greyhound Bus with 500+ budget Asian passengers.

It's just a fact.

And then when you realize that the air circulation is actually reduced from normal levels for economy you really understand why.

Economically the A380 is also a disaster in the making. It's one thing to fill an airplane for peak travel but the everyday economics will be horrendous when you consider the non peak economics of operating a less than full Jumbo cruiser that is heavily leveraged to the banks or leasing company.

There was an interesting lesson during the start of deregulation. American Airlines invested heavily in the DC-10 while Braniff Airlines bought the equivliant amount of seats for each city pairing to compete with American but did it with two BOEING 727 for each DC-10.

Thus Braniff offered two departure times for each American departure. In addition they operationally had the option to combine flights instead of flying an airplane empty and losing money in the process. Also operationally if a mechanical grounded a flight they had a operational airframe to pu passengers on.

If you know your aviation history you would know that this method hammered American and nearly put them out of business. Unfortuneatley instead of sticking to this formula Lawrence Harding overexpanded Braniff and bankrupted one of the great airlines.

But the point is: The A380 is sheer folly.

Swinepest epidemic is a North American thing, so no Asians involved?
So a half-full A380 is more dangerous than 90% full B777? I agree though that flying is pretty unhealthy for passengers in general. Also take into account the slot-value, having
many slots at large airports costs a lot of money.
Sure you need fuelreserves, itīs mandatory.

[Spad13]

Economically the A380 is also a disaster in the making.

In the making? More like made and remade.

[HalcyonDays]

On the A380 in general, without particularly taking sides on the issue, it's easy to forget, in my opinion, that the A380 is really not that much larger than the largest existing wide bodies. When the 747 was introduced 30-40 years ago, you really did then have an exponential increase in physical size, airport gate issues, passenger capacity and so on. The A380 is not on that scale and nowhere near it.

[HalcyonDays]

Swinepest epidemic is a North American thing, so no Asians involved?

Don't be too complacent - there are reported outbreaks in New Zealand, Hongkong, Spain and New York.

Remember that the SARS outbreak in 2003 precipitated a major reduction in international air travel. In the end, the scare was very brief, but airlines were very worried for a few weeks.

[Alessandro]

Don't be too complacent - there are reported outbreaks in New Zealand, Hongkong, Spain and New York.

Remember that the SARS outbreak in 2003 precipitated a major reduction in international air travel. In the end, the scare was very brief, but airlines were very worried for a few weeks.

OK, not aware of any cases outside North America.

[Alessandro]

On the A380 in general, without particularly taking sides on the issue, it's easy to forget, in my opinion, that the A380 is really not that much larger than the largest existing wide bodies. When the 747 was introduced 30-40 years ago, you really did then have an exponential increase in physical size, airport gate issues, passenger capacity and so on. The A380 is not on that scale and nowhere near it.

Sure isnīt the revolution of the B741 and the delivery rate been slow, surely passed a few
other planes like Dassault Mercure, Concorde, Tu-144 and now about the same amount of planes
flewn as the Il-96.

[el]

Don't be too complacent - there are reported outbreaks in New Zealand, Hongkong, Spain and New York.

Remember that the SARS outbreak in 2003 precipitated a major reduction in international air travel. In the end, the scare was very brief, but airlines were very worried for a few weeks.

The suspected cases in New Zealand have been just that - suspected. All tests for H1N1 came back negative.

[IntheShade]

I don't think that's a safe assumption. It may be true that there is a federation called the United Arab Emirates, but none of them really like each other much, and there is especially little love lost between Dubai and Abu Dhabi. I think Emirates Airlines is mainly owned by Dubai interests and Etihad by Abu Dhabi interests. I would not bank on one emirate supporting the airline of the other if things became really bad, though I do agree that Emirates Airlines is not a dubious carrier and that it will most likely survive for the reason I gave earlier today.

Much like EADS/AirBus, Emirates will survive by simple virtue of a deep pocket book outside the business--not on market generated revenus.

The A-380 order boggles the mind.

Unlike many of you, I have been to UAE. There is no way Dubai will ever become the "back door" to Europe/Asia. There will never be enough travel throughout the year to fill over 50 A-380 on a daily basis.

In addition Dubai is smack in the middle of the most contested point on the Globe. I remember when Beruit was being touted as a "new Medditerrian destination", that is was rebuilt and going to be a sort of regional hub.

Well, as all the infrastructure was being built and a public relations onslaught in place, it tore itself apart.

The Persian Gulf is no different. It is not a place that one can build any type high profile international business because it is only a matter of time before the political winds shift......

It is my opinion that whoever set up Emirates whith the humongous A380 order either doesn't know how to run an airline or were being payed off and counted on being gone from the company prior to the harsh reailty of generating revenue with them.

[Alessandro]

Much like EADS/AirBus, Emirates will survive by simple virtue of a deep pocket book outside the business--not on market generated revenus.

The A-380 order boggles the mind.

Unlike many of you, I have been to UAE. There is no way Dubai will ever become the "back door" to Europe/Asia. There will never be enough travel throughout the year to fill over 50 A-380 on a daily basis.

In addition Dubai is smack in the middle of the most contested point on the Globe. I remember when Beruit was being touted as a "new Medditerrian destination", that is was rebuilt and going to be a sort of regional hub.

Well, as all the infrastructure was being built and a public relations onslaught in place, it tore itself apart.

The Persian Gulf is no different. It is not a place that one can build any type high profile international business because it is only a matter of time before the political winds shift......

It is my opinion that whoever set up Emirates whith the humongous A380 order either doesn't know how to run an airline or were being payed off and counted on being gone from the company prior to the harsh reailty of generating revenue with them.

I donīt share your view on UAE vs Lebanon, Lebanon got landborder to two countries, one country which they donīt recognize and thatīs the main problem, until recently the other
one did have troops and no embassy in Lebanon.
UAE recognize both itīs neighbours and got no terriotorial dispute with them, only a minor dispute with Iran over some small islands.
I only stopped over in UAE twice and itīs a natural stopping point for aircrafts on their way
from europe/north america to asia.
As for 50 A380-800 ordered, with the slow delivery rate, Iīm convinced Emirates will sell off their older A380-800 until all of the order is filled.
I only stopped over at Dubai airport, back in 1990, seem like a sleepy place back then.

[Spad13]

As for 50 A380-800 ordered, with the slow delivery rate, Iīm convinced Emirates will sell off their older A380-800 until all of the order is filled.

Who will buy them?