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  • Good Meteorological Analysis

    Ed: Please read the thread to ensure you are not repeating content.
    Last edited by AJ; 2009-06-02, 22:27.

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    • Originally posted by saupatel View Post
      Is it safe to say that this incident was not caused by just the storm system since a KLM and TAM flew the exact same route and landed safely ?
      A CB cloud, can change very rapidly...30 minutes later you could have a 50,000 ft solid tower, with hail and strong winds, so severe than it can destroy an aircraft.
      That's why a Ryan 3M StormScope is better to use sometimes, than a weather radar.
      A Former Airdisaster.Com Forum (senior member)....

      Comment


      • i hate to be dark but...
        what would be the most likely cause of death in this situation?

        as i understand it, one of the automated electrical signals being discussed indicated decompression. if that was indeed what happened, would it be fair to say most passengers suffocated? this could also explain why there was no communication from the cockpit, can't communicate if you're passed out due to lack of O2.



        the news breaking at this hour reports the debris field is a scattered field covering about 3 miles. which is the more likely case of the two following scenarios? too early to know?
        1) AF447 was in one piece when it struck the surface, basically shattered into several pieces upon impact. the ocean current spread the debris over 3 miles over the last 40ish hours

        2)AF447 was already in several pieces and continued breaking up as it fell towards the sea. i suppose this theory would suggest either a)some type of explosion or b)turbulence severe enough to basically rock the plane apart

        any input into either of these questions would be great. i'm just trying to gain a better understanding of what may have happened.

        also if you notice any glaring misconceptions of my understanding of this situation so far, please correct me.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Cargo Runner View Post
          First of all I think we should put any sort of terrorist/bomb theory to the very back of our minds as no one has tried to claim any sort of press coverage by it and after 2 days you would think something would of leaked so far.

          As for the fire theory, if there was a storm at the time of disappearance, how could anyone see anything in pouring rain, because I can't see when driving on the road what is happening above me or 1/2 a mile in front of me so I think this pilot is trying to get some type of fame out of this disaster....
          I'm not saying it was def a bomb! However I don't recall anyone immediately claiming responsibility for the Pan Am Lockerbie disaster.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Spad13 View Post
            I highly doubt FAB has any Mirage IVs.
            Brazil used to have Mirage IIIs (some of which now in museums) and around 2005-6 began upgraded (?!) to Mirage 2000-C.

            My doubt is what help would a Mirage (or F-16) to rescue operations.
            Abēs.
            g.
            www.transconsult.com.br

            Comment


            • A dutch merchant ship just arrived to the area, they report not survivors. Two more merchant ships from other nationalities are due to arrive in the next few hours. Three brazilian war ships are due to arrive tomorrow morning.
              A Former Airdisaster.Com Forum (senior member)....

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              • Originally posted by lake33 View Post
                i hate to be dark but...
                what would be the most likely cause of death in this situation?
                Trying not to be dark, the most likely cause of survival is water temperature, which keeps around rather unusual 30ŗ C and would permit limitless stay of a a healthy person in the water.
                Abēs.
                g.
                www.transconsult.com.br

                Comment


                • After doing an extensive FORTRAN analysis of weather, airframe, operating conditions, cheap composite construction techinques, AirBus histories and carpet plotting the results I have come to the conclusion that the most westward piece of derbis will probably be a vertical tail.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by FrequentFlyer View Post
                    Trying not to be dark, the most likely cause of survival is water temperature, which keeps around rather unusual 30ŗ C and would permit limitless stay of a a healthy person in the water.

                    depending on how long you were out there and if you had anything to hold onto to keep you afloat. also warm waters + blood from injuries = sharks.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by AVION1 View Post
                      Three brazilian war ships are due to arrive tomorrow morning.
                      Plus a tanker. The idea is to have a floating base to support vessels and helicopters, able to operate on a first setup for 30 days.
                      Abēs.
                      g.
                      www.transconsult.com.br

                      Comment


                      • Meanwhile at AirBus:

                        Airbus A380 makes landmark flight amid tragedy
                        9 hours ago

                        PARIS (AFP) — The world's biggest passenger jet, the Airbus A380, left Paris for an inaugural regular flight to Singapore on Tuesday but an air of tragedy displaced celebrations after an airline disaster on Monday.

                        The superjumbo took off from Roissy Charles de Gaulle airport near Paris to return to Singapore, marking its first flight out of continental Europe to complete a return trip, but after one minute of silence instead of the planned ceremony.

                        The aircraft took off with almost every seat filled, and among the passengers were 35 members of the French national rugby team, travelling in business class for a tour of the Pacific region.

                        The team's general manager Jo Maso told AFP: "It is a great honour to inaugurate this aircraft, adding that he was "not worried at all" after the accident on Monday, and that "air travel is one of the safest ways of travelling."

                        The spokesman for Singapore Airlines, which operated the flight, asked for a minute of silence for the 228 passengers and crew missing aboard an Air France Airbus airliner lost over the Atlantic Ocean on Monday.

                        Most of the French officials invited, including Transport Minister Jean-Louis Borloo and the head of French airports operator ADP, Pierre Graff, cancelled their attendance at the event.

                        The missing aircraft, an Airbus A330, had been due to arrive at the same airport on Monday morning on a flight from Brazil.

                        The A380 superjumbo jet can carry up to 853 passengers. But Singapore Airlines has chosen to offer plenty of space, fitting the airliner with only 471 seats, in three classes: 12 suites with armchairs one metre (39 inches) wide that can be made to recline full length, 60 seats in business class and 399 in economy class.

                        The spokesman said the plane had taken off with 93 percent of the seats filled and that nearly all of the seats in business and economy class had been sold.

                        Boarding took longer for the flight out of Roissy than out of Singapore because only two gangways were provided instead of three to give access to the two decks. The process here took an hour instead of 40 minutes in Singapore.

                        The airport authorities intend to make a third gangway available to reach the upper floor before March 2010.

                        Singapore Airlines already runs A380 flights from Singapore to Sydney, London and Tokyo.

                        The flight left Singapore on Monday at 2140 GMT and arrived in Paris at 0440 GMT.

                        Singapore Airlines says it plans daily Singapore-Paris flights using A380s, of which it was the first airline to take delivery in October 2007. An airline source said there had been a delay in the delivery of one new A380 intended for the route.

                        It has ordered 19 of the long range jets and has options for six others.

                        Other airports that have received A380 aircraft are Sydney, London, Tokyo, Dubai, Los Angeles, Melbourne, Auckland, Toronto and Bangkok.

                        Copyright © 2009 AFP. All rights reserved. More »

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                        • As per BBC America World New at 7 pm they found parts of the plane in the Atlantic and they say there is no chance to find survivors .... A sad moment ...

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                          • Originally posted by IntheShade View Post
                            After doing an extensive FORTRAN analysis of weather, airframe, operating conditions, cheap composite construction techinques, AirBus histories and carpet plotting the results I have come to the conclusion that the most westward piece of derbis will probably be a vertical tail.

                            I wouldn't be surprised if the vertical stabilizer blew off!!

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by lake33 View Post
                              depending on how long you were out there
                              Trying not no to be dark, Lake... First and foremost, depending on having reached the water alive or with minimal survival conditions. Unfortunately, despite all the hope I may carry in my heart, I see no chance of finding survivors.
                              Abēs.
                              g.
                              www.transconsult.com.br

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by FrequentFlyer View Post
                                Trying not no to be dark, Lake... First and foremost, depending on having reached the water alive or with minimal survival conditions. Unfortunately, despite all the hope I may carry in my heart, I see no chance of finding survivors.

                                There were some passengers that survived the fall of TWA 800, but drowned because they were unconcious in the water.

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