Last ATC exchange was final clearance to land 28L 40 seconds before impact. No indication of problem in pilot's voice or message.
BA38 (777 at LHR) also had similar ATC clearance exchange 32 seconds before impact with no indication of problem. The BA 777 managed to get a mayday out 10 seconds before impact and retract some flap to extend the glide.
Witnesses report plane wobbled on approach. Could be interpreted either as aerodynamic stall, control problems or controlled change of direction (cleared for 28L but might have been lined up for 28R?)
Other witness said that the plane flipped over on its back, so goes to show how unreliable witnesses are.
Passenger said that the plane 'flipped up and down' before impact. Passengers on BA38 didn't feel anything out of the ordinary before impact.
Looking at new photos, could be the right main gear that struck sea wall first explaining the debris field right of centre line. Also, the ground marks only start 80-120 feet from the aircraft suggesting that the aircraft was somehow airborne as it left the runway. A twitter pic shows one wing high and the fuselage at a high angle. This may have looked something like a cartwheel but it certainly wasn't sliding on the ground all the way from original gear or tail impact.
There is also interesting damage to the leading edge of the vertical stab. Could it be possible that the gear sheared off and struck the vertical stab leading to the disintegration of the rear empennage? Not sure. But looking at the fuselage section still attached to the vertical stab, the front edge looks like a failure under tensile load supporting the theory that the vertical stab was pulled back. With a tail strike, that section of fuselage would show compressive failure, i.e. buckling. Similarly, the end of the main fuselage just above the pressure bulkhead does not show compression or buckled edges at the top.
Nor do the ground marks show the classic signs of a tailstrike.
One might also expect to see buckling of the top fuselage just aft of the main wings in a tailstrike severe enough to rip the tail off.
Either way, he was way low on the GS. But I may have to retract the low airspeed theory.
Best guess is:
- Low on GS with right wing low
- Right main gear strikes sea wall
- Gear flips up and hits vertical stab
- Rear empennage breaks off/apart
- Aircraft starts to yaw right raising left wing
- Rapid deceleration
- Aircraft pancakes down and slides short distance to final position
Superb aircraft design holds together saving a lot of lives!
Main question is why he was low on GS.
BA38 (777 at LHR) also had similar ATC clearance exchange 32 seconds before impact with no indication of problem. The BA 777 managed to get a mayday out 10 seconds before impact and retract some flap to extend the glide.
Witnesses report plane wobbled on approach. Could be interpreted either as aerodynamic stall, control problems or controlled change of direction (cleared for 28L but might have been lined up for 28R?)
Other witness said that the plane flipped over on its back, so goes to show how unreliable witnesses are.
Passenger said that the plane 'flipped up and down' before impact. Passengers on BA38 didn't feel anything out of the ordinary before impact.
Looking at new photos, could be the right main gear that struck sea wall first explaining the debris field right of centre line. Also, the ground marks only start 80-120 feet from the aircraft suggesting that the aircraft was somehow airborne as it left the runway. A twitter pic shows one wing high and the fuselage at a high angle. This may have looked something like a cartwheel but it certainly wasn't sliding on the ground all the way from original gear or tail impact.
There is also interesting damage to the leading edge of the vertical stab. Could it be possible that the gear sheared off and struck the vertical stab leading to the disintegration of the rear empennage? Not sure. But looking at the fuselage section still attached to the vertical stab, the front edge looks like a failure under tensile load supporting the theory that the vertical stab was pulled back. With a tail strike, that section of fuselage would show compressive failure, i.e. buckling. Similarly, the end of the main fuselage just above the pressure bulkhead does not show compression or buckled edges at the top.
Nor do the ground marks show the classic signs of a tailstrike.
One might also expect to see buckling of the top fuselage just aft of the main wings in a tailstrike severe enough to rip the tail off.
Either way, he was way low on the GS. But I may have to retract the low airspeed theory.
Best guess is:
- Low on GS with right wing low
- Right main gear strikes sea wall
- Gear flips up and hits vertical stab
- Rear empennage breaks off/apart
- Aircraft starts to yaw right raising left wing
- Rapid deceleration
- Aircraft pancakes down and slides short distance to final position
Superb aircraft design holds together saving a lot of lives!
Main question is why he was low on GS.
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