Flydubai Flight 981 Crashes on Landing in Rostov-on-Don, Russia

[Highkeas]

Here is crash site video taken from a helicopter. Hard to believe that is the remains of a 737.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TtkoUT76CMk

[AVION1]

"I know they fly airplanes to places like Panama City, Panama, direct non-stop"

Hey you are the one that posted it, not me. Might want to look at what you wrote before you hit that enter key next time.

Probably because I was thinking about "Emirates Airlines".
It happens. But it doesn't give you any right to offend people in this forum.

[BoeingBobby]

Probably because I was thinking about "Emirates Airlines".
It happens. But it doesn't give you any right to offend people in this forum.

I did not insult you, I called you out. Time and time again you post non-sense off the wall erroneous information.

[B757300]

Ugh, can we not discuss Trump. The media is already about him 24/7.

[Gabriel]

The angle looks really steep on the video. Doesn't look like a botched landing at all. How come they still have so much fuel on board? Circling for two hours after a six hour flight..? Why not divert to another airport?

Well, according to Av Herald, additionally to all the legal requirements (trip+reserve+alternate+final fuel) that had enough fuel to hold for 2:30. Apparently they still had like 2 hours of fuel on board when they crashed.

[Gabriel]

It seems to drop like a stone with very little forward speed. I think that the descending light is landing lights rather than fire. Windshear/microburst as first guess for me.

Whatever the cause let all those lost Rest In Piece.

The vertical speed was evidently very high. The forward speed is hard to tell because we don't know for example if we are looking at the flight track mostly sidewise or mostly head-on.

[Gabriel]

Much talk of the video being Tartarstan 363, not Flydubai. That video is utterly incompatible with a wing strike.
Edit: but so is the wreckage. I have never seen a plane reduced to such little bits. Even Lockerbie had bigger chunks.

Ok, imagine the following scenario: Quite sever wing strike, the crew goes around and starts a climb of a few thousand feet per minute (typical), but then they notice that the elevator is stuck and the plane is rolling (in either direction) and they cannot control or compensate for that. Eventually the plane rolls to almost/past 90 degrees of bank. Then the plane becomes visible in the video.

Disclaimer: I have no reason to believe or disbelieve in the above scenario. It is just one that would make the wing strike and the video compatible.

[Gabriel]

I have never seen a plane reduced to such little bits. Even Lockerbie had bigger chunks.

Then you have not seen much.
Many many times the plane was reduced to such little bits, and even littler than this.
Lockerbie, adter the bomb explosion, was an in-flight break up. Those leave quite large chunks.
Very high energy impacts head on with terra firma, on the other hand...

[Gabriel]

Tower gave QFE 988 they read back QFE 998 (!) anyone know the difference in feet/meters???

Some 85m or 280ft.

[3WE]

Thank you media...for very little.

"The flight recorders appear to be badly damaged"

[End of news item]

Okay...so a thorough news reporter would ask, "Can you comment on whether the data can be recovered?"

Of course, the wise investigator would say, "We cannot comment at this time"

...I just like to fantasize they might say, "Obviously, we can't say for sure, but it looks (likely, unlikely, some other adjective)"

Historically, the recording (not the same as the recorder) survives fairly well.

[3WE]

Ok, imagine the following scenario: Quite sever wing strike, the crew goes around and starts a climb of a few thousand feet per minute (typical), but then they notice that the elevator is stuck and the plane is rolling (in either direction) and they cannot control or compensate for that. Eventually the plane rolls to almost/past 90 degrees of bank. Then the plane becomes visible in the video.

Disclaimer: I have no reason to believe or disbelieve in the above scenario. It is just one that would make the wing strike and the video compatible.

...not unlike post #14

[Evan]

Ok, imagine the following scenario: Quite sever wing strike, the crew goes around and starts a climb of a few thousand feet per minute (typical), but then they notice that the elevator is stuck and the plane is rolling (in either direction) and they cannot control or compensate for that. Eventually the plane rolls to almost/past 90 degrees of bank. Then the plane becomes visible in the video.

Disclaimer: I have no reason to believe or disbelieve in the above scenario. It is just one that would make the wing strike and the video compatible.

Gabriel, that's just not possible. The wreckage is still in the 22 TDZ. If this had involved a wing strike it would have had to occur well short of the runway for the plane to climb and then come down there. Also, the last radar position is beyond the piano keys, so they had to be high enough to be seen on radar at that point.

I think the wing-strike report is a myth. I think this was a botched go-around from final.

[TeeVee]

they circled for two hours because of weather then crashed? Brilliant! not one thought to diverting.

unless there was some MONSTER weather system precluding diversion to at least 2 airports nearby, there should be criminal liability on the part of a few folks.

[3WE]

A bit too black and white and too strong for me...

Gabriel, that's just not possible.

What's that comment about absolute statements?

The wreckage is still in the 22 TDZ. If this had involved a wing strike it would have had to occur well short of the runway for the plane to climb and then come down there.

Correct, the wing strike would have had to occur well before the runway.

BUT

Delta 191 (a wind-shear crash) involved a touchdown 6336 feet short of the runway followed by a collision with a car ~5,200 feet from the threshold causing loss of control and impact with a large tank ~3000 feet from the runway...

You are correct that this crash's flight path is unusual, but "just not possible?" Someone's thinking black and white.

Also, the last radar position is beyond the piano keys, so they had to be high enough to be seen on radar at that point.

I think the wing-strike report is a myth.

Glad you THINK that. Have you inspected the approach path for broken trees, or do you think it's another instance of Russian tree transplanting?

I think this was a botched go-around from final.

Again, no foul on thinking, but at this point what evidence is there to discount 1. Wing strike and/or 2) Something broken and/or 3. botched go-around...Yeah, something went wrong a good bit earlier for it to hit the ground so steeply / high energy right at the aim point.

What's the big difference between a botched go around where you scrape a wing and a botched go around where you don't scrape a wing?

Maybe a wing strike, maybe not, but I don't see anything to dismiss a wing strike, and it's a bit of a stretch to say it's "simply made up by the media".

I know folks have botched go-arounds before, but they're really pretty simple...TOGA power and maintain attitude and airspeed, establish a climb and clean up the plane...you know, that basic fundamental skill called "Fly the plane"...I would like to believe the poor souls had some other factors helping to botch a simple, common, fundamental maneuver.

[Evan]

A bit too black and white and too strong for me...

3WE, we go through this every time. I am only SPECULATING based only on WHAT HAS BEEN REPORTED and is often innaccurate... because that is what we do (you included) on these forums.

The idea of a touchdown or wingstrike well-short of the threshold seems highly unlikely because they were on ILS and visibility was apparently not that bad (see CC video). If a wingstrike did occur, it would have had to occur a very significant distance short of the threshold for the plane to climb, upset and plummet to the crash locaction.

The CC video does not seem to depict an aircraft spiraling in. It looks like a very steep pitch excursion to me. Also, the fact that the crash location is just left of the runway edge seems to go against a roll excursion departure from the intended flight path.

Hopefully the DFDR will reveal certain parameters, such as AP status and if only one AP was operating prior to the go-around. You cannot execute an AP go-around on the 737 with a single AP. If you hit the TO/GA buttons the single AP will disconnect and you are suddenly in manual flight with the FD's in TO/GA mode, while the AT is in reduced-thrust GA mode. If you don't push the TO/GA buttons a second time when thrust reaches the reduced limit, you will not get full TO/GA thrust. If you make too aggressive of a pitch command during this time, you could get stickshaker. You could then overreact in pitch reduction, which can bring on the somatogravic illusion of pitching up, causing you to pitch further down without realizing your true attitude. Of course, you would have to be ignoring (or doubting) your primary instruments at that point, but we all know pilots will do this under stress. I'm not pushing this theory, I'm merely pointing out that go-arounds in modern digital autopilot aircraft can be very dangerous if the crew is not well-trained, well-practiced and well-prepared for them.

I hope that is grey enough for you.