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BREAKING: EgyptAir flight from Paris to Cairo has disappeared from radar

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  • #31
    Originally posted by Leftseat86 View Post
    Which is why I think the idea that someone "waited" till that moment so as to have some special impact of the plane being in Egyptian airspace is moot and probably completely irrelevant. If you're going through all the trouble to bomb or bring down an airliner for political reasons, the airspace you do it in isn't of much concern if any. The the destination, departure point and airline all have more to do with that. Also, thus far, no claims of responsibility by any terrorist groups have been made, as far as we know, right?
    The main point that no one has claimed responsibility is probably the main thing here. They pretty much always would have done it by now. And really, looking at the map more precisely shows it was still in the middle of the sea even if it was 10 miles into the airspace. Unless they had a very good understanding of the aviation sectors and all the maps, and along with that some kind of extra precise timing then I'm sure it is coincidental. Either way really, if it is terrorism, or if its not.

    But you see one could argue the ideas and plans a terrorist plots out don't always make sense either anyway. Just because it doesn't make sense to you or me doesn't mean it couldn't make perfect sense to some crazed lunatics mind.

    Hopefully the no claim thing is a sign that it wasn't, but then it could still be a lone wolf or a few who didn't report to one of the organizations (ISIS,Al Qaeda,etc.) After all, it could be not a political move in the case of a lone wolf and maybe a few friends, but rather going along with their idea of getting 72 virgins, or fighting the west without wanting any credit,etc. I could think of more but I am a but tired of thinking of this right now. I really hope it doesn't turn out to be.

    In the end 66 people are dead, its sad either way. Because we all know if it wasn't terrorist then its another possible problem with the plane, or with the flight deck crew, etc. Thats the thing isn't it, it always ends up being a problem that caused it in the end no matter what and finding that problem sounds like its going to be difficult this time. Heres to hoping the boxes are recovered ASAP.

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    • #32
      An announcement like starting dedcent or announcement to crew also can give an indication of location.
      That is if one is assuming the pilots were operating within protocol. Their radio silence is suspicious however. So well see where the invrstigation leads.

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      • #33
        Breaking:

        AP: Egyptian army spokesman says the wreckage of missing #EgyptAir flight #MS804 has been found 290km north of Alexandria
        AirDisaster.com Forum Member 2004-2008

        Originally posted by orangehuggy
        the most dangerous part of a flight is not the take off or landing anymore, its when a flight crew member goes to the toilet

        Comment


        • #34
          Originally posted by Gabriel View Post
          ....Finally, I don't believe that there would be any "effect" or political advantage by destroy a plane a little bit on either side of an airspace boundary in the middle of the see. What's the difference?...
          Ding Ding Ding Ding.

          Kind of interesting that it had just crossed a magical line in the sky and you can't help but ask a question or two, but there isn't very much significance here.

          One other thing- am I reading that it descended 20-something thousand feet and briefly leveled...

          ...i.e. loss of pressure and deliberate descent to breathable altitude with any number of problems keeping the pilots from being able to contact ATC...
          Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

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          • #35
            Originally posted by LH-B744 View Post
            Leftseat, "in the cabin" was something that you assumed, right?

            Well. I have just found a German source which says: " Von Überlebenden wurde nichts bekannt." [ZDF, heute dot de, 05-19-2016]
            In English: "Officials haven't found yet one survivor."

            Under Investigation. That might be a hope for your assumption, that there could have been a PNF in the cabin who survived it and who is able to write down some details.
            I know that there are PNFs who didn't participate in that flight. So, imho,
            Air France is able to contribute/to help with some details. They also know the route.

            Avoidable? Survivable?

            Gabriel, I wish that we could "meet" (online) on a happier occasion. That should be possible, one brighter day.
            What? Could there have been a PF in the back????

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            • #36
              Originally posted by LH-B744 View Post
              Leftseat, "in the cabin" was something that you assumed, right?

              Well. I have just found a German source which says: " Von Überlebenden wurde nichts bekannt." [ZDF, heute dot de, 05-19-2016]
              In English: "Officials haven't found yet one survivor."

              Under Investigation. That might be a hope for your assumption, that there could have been a PNF in the cabin who survived it and who is able to write down some details.
              I know that there are PNFs who didn't participate in that flight. So, imho,
              Air France is able to contribute/to help with some details. They also know the route.

              Avoidable? Survivable?

              Gabriel, I wish that we could "meet" (online) on a happier occasion. That should be possible, one brighter day.
              Sometimes I get the sense you mostly just write for yourself.

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              • #37
                Originally posted by ATLcrew View Post
                Sometimes I get the sense you mostly just write for yourself.

                Comment


                • #38
                  Originally posted by Evan View Post
                  ACARS?
                  On May 20th 2016 The Aviation Herald received information from two independent channels, that ACARS (Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System) messages with following (paraphrased) content were received from the aircraft:

                  00:26Z Lavatory Smoke
                  00:27Z Avionics Compartment Smoke
                  00:29Z Flight Controls Unit 2 Fault
                  00:29Z Secondary Flight Controls 3 Fault
                  no further ACARS messages were received

                  Three minutes from smoke detection to last CMS transmission. Not sure what those last two messages imply.

                  Interesting what isn't here though. Nothing about cabin pressurization or cabin altitude V/S for instance.

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                  • #39
                    Originally posted by Evan View Post
                    00:29Z Flight Controls Unit 2 Fault
                    00:29Z Secondary Flight Controls 3 Fault
                    I suspect these might be reported (paraphrased) interpretations of the actual ACARS messages. If they are, I'm guessing Flight Controls Unit 2 Fault means ELAC 2 FAULT and Secondary Flight Controls 3 Fault means SEC 3 FAULT.

                    Both ELAC2 and SEC 3 are on the DC2 BUS.

                    The loss of both these FCC's alone would not degrade control from NORMAL law.

                    If accurate, the scenario looks like a propogation of fire in the avionics bay, possibly initiated in the lav above...

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                    • #40
                      Originally posted by Evan View Post
                      ACARS?
                      UPDATED from AV Herald:

                      00:26Z 3044 ANTI ICE R WINDOW
                      00:26Z 561200 R SLIDING WINDOW SENSOR
                      00:26Z 2600 SMOKE LAVATORY SMOKE
                      00:27Z 2600 AVIONICS SMOKE
                      00:28Z 561100 R FIXED WINDOW SENSOR
                      00:29Z 2200 AUTO FLT FCU 2 FAULT
                      00:29Z 2700 F/CTL SEC 3 FAULT

                      I guessed wrong about the Flight Controls Unit 2 Fault - it is AUTO FLT FCU 2 FAULT. That is a single channel fault and is fault passive, so it has no cockpit action and no effect on the autoflight.

                      Right side window heat failure and sensor alerts? Loss of the windows? Electrical faults?

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                      • #41
                        Originally posted by Evan View Post
                        I suspect these might be reported (paraphrased) interpretations of the actual ACARS messages. If they are, I'm guessing Flight Controls Unit 2 Fault means ELAC 2 FAULT and Secondary Flight Controls 3 Fault means SEC 3 FAULT.

                        Both ELAC2 and SEC 3 are on the DC2 BUS.

                        The loss of both these FCC's alone would not degrade control from NORMAL law.

                        If accurate, the scenario looks like a propagation of fire in the avionics bay, possibly initiated in the lav above...
                        That looks like too few and benign faults to bring a plane down. And 3 minutes looks like a too short time from the first smoke event to the last fault report. Unless the next thing that failed was the ACARS...

                        EDIT:
                        Now these windows messages are worrisome...

                        --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
                        --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

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                        • #42
                          Originally posted by Gabriel View Post
                          That looks like too few and benign faults to bring a plane down. And 3 minutes looks like a too short time from the first smoke event to the last fault report. Unless the next thing that failed was the ACARS...

                          EDIT:
                          Now these windows messages are worrisome...
                          I feel pretty certain these message were just the tip of the iceberg. I'm not sure what those window sensors do but I imagine they sense excessive shock from a fracture. These could also be due to a failed breaker or circuit. The window heat, avionics vent, lav vent and FCU 2 CB's are on the bulkhead panels being the F/O. As is SATCOM...

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                          • #43
                            Originally posted by Gabriel View Post
                            Now these windows messages are worrisome...
                            That might be a lark. Consider this... if you lose the #2 DC bus (perhaps due to arcing or electrical fire), you lose the right-side window anti ice (left side is on the #1 Bus), FCU 2 and SEC 2 + 3. I don't know about the right-side window sensors but it stand to reason that they would also be on the #2 DC bus. You might also expect smoke detection in the forward lav and avionics bay.

                            If smoke were present, you would expect the pilot to initiate an emergency descent and turn off the airway. If the fire propagated (as in Swissair Flt 111) you could expect the crew to eventually lose flight control.

                            Another thing to ponder: When avionics smoke is detected, the SMOKE light comes on on the EMER ELEC PWR panel on the overhead. This is actually a button to take GEN 1 offline and set the emergency electrical configuraion. In EMER ELEC CONFIGURATION, you lose (among a lot of other things) SEC 2 + 3, FCU 2, window anti-ice and SATCOM. Although this seems like less of a fit than a #2 DC bus fault.

                            The lack of claims of responsibility by any terror group and these ACARS messages are making me skeptical of a bomb or attack theory. This may turn out to be something quite different.

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                            • #44
                              If the leaked ACARS messages are from the very beginning of the main problem I think there was a very strong fire / highly heated airflow in front of the right pilot's seat and those ACARS messages in fact indicate window overheating that cannot be controlled (e.g. cooled) by the window heating computers. The smoke of this disaster was sensed after a minute by front lavatory smoke detector and seconds later by sensors in the avionics compartment. Right now I cannot think of airplane's equipment in that area that can produce such fire/heating/dissipated energy for the given time frame even if supported by 100% oxygen from the masks.

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                              • #45
                                Possible oil slick detected by ESA satellite

                                AirDisaster.com Forum Member 2004-2008

                                Originally posted by orangehuggy
                                the most dangerous part of a flight is not the take off or landing anymore, its when a flight crew member goes to the toilet

                                Comment

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