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Thread: BREAKING: EgyptAir flight from Paris to Cairo has disappeared from radar

  1. #21
    Member LH-B744's Avatar
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    Leftseat, "in the cabin" was something that you assumed, right?

    Well. I have just found a German source which says: " Von Überlebenden wurde nichts bekannt." [ZDF, heute dot de, 05-19-2016]
    In English: "Officials haven't found yet one survivor."

    Under Investigation. That might be a hope for your assumption, that there could have been a PNF in the cabin who survived it and who is able to write down some details.
    I know that there are PNFs who didn't participate in that flight. So, imho,
    Air France is able to contribute/to help with some details. They also know the route.

    Avoidable? Survivable?

    Gabriel, I wish that we could "meet" (online) on a happier occasion. That should be possible, one brighter day.
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    Not the matter if you are 18, 38 or 58 years old.

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  2. #22
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    Egyptian authorities claimed to have found debris and life jackets, but investigators said they weren't from a plane and the claims have been retracted...
    US agencies are saying satellite imaging shows no sign of an explosion.

  3. #23
    Senior Member Evan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    Rule of thumb, if there are no ATC restrictions (that tend to make you descend earlier than needed), is altitude times 3/10 + 10 NM.
    370 ==> 111 NM ==> 121 NM
    By my reckoning, the crew should have been prepping and briefing the descent at the time comms were lost. Or one of them may have may a last-chance run to the lav...

  4. #24
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    Or one of them may have may a last-chance run to the lav...
    Oh no not again!

    (ASSHAT Speculation ON) I have no idea what Egypt Airs procs are on number of crew in the cockpit - let's assume they require a FA in there so two peeps are required. My thinking here is Mr Terrorist 'rushes' the cockpit door as it opens forcing all into the cockpit - mayhem ensues for a couple of seconds before all are incapacitated. I only suggest this because I hate to think this is another PF murdercide


  5. #25
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    ACARS?

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    It's a bit sad to think that I'd be happy (figuratively speaking) if this is a mechanical/technical fault rather than another toilet episode

    Maybe it's time for the pilots to start wearing nappy's (diapers)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    With a handheld GPS as those found in cellphones or tablets. Or map in the IFE.
    A cellphone wouldn't have any signal out there, handheld GPS is a possibility, or the IFE map. I'm just targeting the assumption that an act was deliberately carried out only when the aircraft was in Egyptian airspace. Even with a cheap GPS or the IFE map it would be kind of a guess at that point, and they had only been in the airspace for a few minutes maybe. The person would have to know where the virtual airspace boundary was for it to be deliberate. Or maybe it was just a good guess, if in fact it was a terrorist act with that intention.

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    cellphones don't need signals to operate as gps units. my iphone gps using motion-x software, is very accurate without a data connection and only a moderate view of the sky. i'm sure the airspace boundaries are not highly classified.

  9. #29
    Senior Member Gabriel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Leftseat86 View Post
    A cellphone wouldn't have any signal out there, handheld GPS is a possibility, or the IFE map. I'm just targeting the assumption that an act was deliberately carried out only when the aircraft was in Egyptian airspace. Even with a cheap GPS or the IFE map it would be kind of a guess at that point, and they had only been in the airspace for a few minutes maybe. The person would have to know where the virtual airspace boundary was for it to be deliberate. Or maybe it was just a good guess, if in fact it was a terrorist act with that intention.
    GPS is GPS, in a celphone or in a Garmin device. It doesn't relies, needs or uses celphone signal.
    GPS, cheap or expensive one, is very precise. Maybe it cannot tell in what lane of the highway you are on, but the error is just some dozens of feet, hundreds in the worst case. The plane was 7 miles into Egyptian airspace. 7 miles +/- 300 feet would not make a difference.
    There are apps for pilots available for free that uses the GPS of the cellphone and the database that app downloads aviation maps (and is kept in your cellphone, so you don't need cell or data connection, it is stand alone).
    If you have an airspace map (that you can download from the internet), the only info that you need from the IFE to know if you are in Egyptian airspace is the distance to Cairo.

    Finally, I don't believe that there would be any "effect" or political advantage by destroy a plane a little bit on either side of an airspace boundary in the middle of the see. What's the difference?
    It was an Egyptian plane. It came from France. That's all what a terrorist would need.

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  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    GPS is GPS, in a celphone or in a Garmin device. It doesn't relies, needs or uses celphone signal.
    GPS, cheap or expensive one, is very precise. Maybe it cannot tell in what lane of the highway you are on, but the error is just some dozens of feet, hundreds in the worst case. The plane was 7 miles into Egyptian airspace. 7 miles +/- 300 feet would not make a difference.
    There are apps for pilots available for free that uses the GPS of the cellphone and the database that app downloads aviation maps (and is kept in your cellphone, so you don't need cell or data connection, it is stand alone).
    If you have an airspace map (that you can download from the internet), the only info that you need from the IFE to know if you are in Egyptian airspace is the distance to Cairo.

    Finally, I don't believe that there would be any "effect" or political advantage by destroy a plane a little bit on either side of an airspace boundary in the middle of the see. What's the difference?
    It was an Egyptian plane. It came from France. That's all what a terrorist would need.
    Which is why I think the idea that someone "waited" till that moment so as to have some special impact of the plane being in Egyptian airspace is moot and probably completely irrelevant. If you're going through all the trouble to bomb or bring down an airliner for political reasons, the airspace you do it in isn't of much concern if any. The the destination, departure point and airline all have more to do with that. Also, thus far, no claims of responsibility by any terrorist groups have been made, as far as we know, right?

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Leftseat86 View Post
    Which is why I think the idea that someone "waited" till that moment so as to have some special impact of the plane being in Egyptian airspace is moot and probably completely irrelevant. If you're going through all the trouble to bomb or bring down an airliner for political reasons, the airspace you do it in isn't of much concern if any. The the destination, departure point and airline all have more to do with that. Also, thus far, no claims of responsibility by any terrorist groups have been made, as far as we know, right?
    The main point that no one has claimed responsibility is probably the main thing here. They pretty much always would have done it by now. And really, looking at the map more precisely shows it was still in the middle of the sea even if it was 10 miles into the airspace. Unless they had a very good understanding of the aviation sectors and all the maps, and along with that some kind of extra precise timing then I'm sure it is coincidental. Either way really, if it is terrorism, or if its not.

    But you see one could argue the ideas and plans a terrorist plots out don't always make sense either anyway. Just because it doesn't make sense to you or me doesn't mean it couldn't make perfect sense to some crazed lunatics mind.

    Hopefully the no claim thing is a sign that it wasn't, but then it could still be a lone wolf or a few who didn't report to one of the organizations (ISIS,Al Qaeda,etc.) After all, it could be not a political move in the case of a lone wolf and maybe a few friends, but rather going along with their idea of getting 72 virgins, or fighting the west without wanting any credit,etc. I could think of more but I am a but tired of thinking of this right now. I really hope it doesn't turn out to be.

    In the end 66 people are dead, its sad either way. Because we all know if it wasn't terrorist then its another possible problem with the plane, or with the flight deck crew, etc. Thats the thing isn't it, it always ends up being a problem that caused it in the end no matter what and finding that problem sounds like its going to be difficult this time. Heres to hoping the boxes are recovered ASAP.

  12. #32
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    An announcement like starting dedcent or announcement to crew also can give an indication of location.
    That is if one is assuming the pilots were operating within protocol. Their radio silence is suspicious however. So well see where the invrstigation leads.

  13. #33
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    Breaking:

    AP: Egyptian army spokesman says the wreckage of missing #EgyptAir flight #MS804 has been found 290km north of Alexandria
    AirDisaster.com Forum Member 2004-2008

    Quote Originally Posted by orangehuggy View Post
    the most dangerous part of a flight is not the take off or landing anymore, its when a flight crew member goes to the toilet

  14. #34
    Senior Member 3WE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    ....Finally, I don't believe that there would be any "effect" or political advantage by destroy a plane a little bit on either side of an airspace boundary in the middle of the see. What's the difference?...
    Ding Ding Ding Ding.

    Kind of interesting that it had just crossed a magical line in the sky and you can't help but ask a question or two, but there isn't very much significance here.

    One other thing- am I reading that it descended 20-something thousand feet and briefly leveled...

    ...i.e. loss of pressure and deliberate descent to breathable altitude with any number of problems keeping the pilots from being able to contact ATC...
    Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by LH-B744 View Post
    Leftseat, "in the cabin" was something that you assumed, right?

    Well. I have just found a German source which says: " Von Überlebenden wurde nichts bekannt." [ZDF, heute dot de, 05-19-2016]
    In English: "Officials haven't found yet one survivor."

    Under Investigation. That might be a hope for your assumption, that there could have been a PNF in the cabin who survived it and who is able to write down some details.
    I know that there are PNFs who didn't participate in that flight. So, imho,
    Air France is able to contribute/to help with some details. They also know the route.

    Avoidable? Survivable?

    Gabriel, I wish that we could "meet" (online) on a happier occasion. That should be possible, one brighter day.
    What? Could there have been a PF in the back????

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by LH-B744 View Post
    Leftseat, "in the cabin" was something that you assumed, right?

    Well. I have just found a German source which says: " Von Überlebenden wurde nichts bekannt." [ZDF, heute dot de, 05-19-2016]
    In English: "Officials haven't found yet one survivor."

    Under Investigation. That might be a hope for your assumption, that there could have been a PNF in the cabin who survived it and who is able to write down some details.
    I know that there are PNFs who didn't participate in that flight. So, imho,
    Air France is able to contribute/to help with some details. They also know the route.

    Avoidable? Survivable?

    Gabriel, I wish that we could "meet" (online) on a happier occasion. That should be possible, one brighter day.
    Sometimes I get the sense you mostly just write for yourself.

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by ATLcrew View Post
    Sometimes I get the sense you mostly just write for yourself.

  18. #38
    Senior Member Evan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Evan View Post
    ACARS?
    On May 20th 2016 The Aviation Herald received information from two independent channels, that ACARS (Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System) messages with following (paraphrased) content were received from the aircraft:

    00:26Z Lavatory Smoke
    00:27Z Avionics Compartment Smoke
    00:29Z Flight Controls Unit 2 Fault
    00:29Z Secondary Flight Controls 3 Fault
    no further ACARS messages were received

    Three minutes from smoke detection to last CMS transmission. Not sure what those last two messages imply.

    Interesting what isn't here though. Nothing about cabin pressurization or cabin altitude V/S for instance.

  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Evan View Post
    00:29Z Flight Controls Unit 2 Fault
    00:29Z Secondary Flight Controls 3 Fault
    I suspect these might be reported (paraphrased) interpretations of the actual ACARS messages. If they are, I'm guessing Flight Controls Unit 2 Fault means ELAC 2 FAULT and Secondary Flight Controls 3 Fault means SEC 3 FAULT.

    Both ELAC2 and SEC 3 are on the DC2 BUS.

    The loss of both these FCC's alone would not degrade control from NORMAL law.

    If accurate, the scenario looks like a propogation of fire in the avionics bay, possibly initiated in the lav above...

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Evan View Post
    ACARS?
    UPDATED from AV Herald:

    00:26Z 3044 ANTI ICE R WINDOW
    00:26Z 561200 R SLIDING WINDOW SENSOR
    00:26Z 2600 SMOKE LAVATORY SMOKE
    00:27Z 2600 AVIONICS SMOKE
    00:28Z 561100 R FIXED WINDOW SENSOR
    00:29Z 2200 AUTO FLT FCU 2 FAULT
    00:29Z 2700 F/CTL SEC 3 FAULT

    I guessed wrong about the Flight Controls Unit 2 Fault - it is AUTO FLT FCU 2 FAULT. That is a single channel fault and is fault passive, so it has no cockpit action and no effect on the autoflight.

    Right side window heat failure and sensor alerts? Loss of the windows? Electrical faults?

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