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Thread: BREAKING: EgyptAir flight from Paris to Cairo has disappeared from radar

  1. #81
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    Egypt saying the aircraft did not turn
    EgyptAir: Crashed flight MS804 'did not swerve'
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-36365256

    Very odd. I know Greek military has very good primary radar cover because of all the incursions.


    Someone has misinterpreted their data.

  2. #82
    Senior Member Evan's Avatar
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    IF this turns out to be an in-flight fire ignited by an arcing circuit, the question will become: why did the CB's not prevent this? The same question arose after SwissAir 111. There are arcing events that current CB's can miss:

    Two of the PSU cables (exhibits 1-3790 and 1-3791) had arcing events that did not trip the associated CB. It is most likely that the CBs did not trip because the electrical characteristics of the arcs were outside the defined Time versus Current curve. Conventional aircraft CB technology can provide protection against hard short-circuit faults, but is limited in that it does not adequately protect against the full range of arc faults.
    Another factor is that, as CB's age, long periods of inactivity can cause the CB’s trip characteristics to change with time. They might no longer trip as efficiently.

    According to both the FAA and the Society of Automotive Engineers, this CB aging phenomenon can be prevented by the periodic cycling of the CB mechanism. Despite such recommendations, aircraft maintenance programs do not typically include a requirement to “exercise” CBs on a periodic basis.
    There is a new type of CB, the Arc Fault Circuit Breaker (AFCB), being introduced to deal with this problem. But there is still the problem of weak certification standards:

    Significant research and development has been done in recent years to quantify and address the inherent limitations of existing aircraft CB design. This work has resulted in a new type of CB known as the AFCB, capable of reacting to a wider range of arc fault situations. The AFCB will prevent an arc fault from developing into a more serious situation that could damage other nearby wires and will limit the energy available to ignite flammable materials. While the AFCB trip characteristics will provide major improvements over the traditional aircraft CB design, these devices will not be certified to a standard that will require that the AFCB trips prior to the ignition of nearby flammable material. The Board is concerned that unless this aspect of the design specifications is addressed, AFCBs certified for use on aircraft will be capable of remaining energized long enough to ignite nearby flammable material.
    Since an inaccessible in-flight fire is one of the worst scenarios any pilot will ever encounter, a harder line on certification standards for fire prevention seems completely reasonable.

  3. #83
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    Does anyone know if the made any manouveres like course or altitude adjustment just before the hard turn reported by the greeks ?

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    The aliens did it, ask the Turks!

    http://www.theweek.co.uk/72918/egypt...theories-begin
    Last edited by vaztr; 05-24-2016 at 11:05 AM. Reason: Added the Turks

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    EgyptAir crash: official says human remains suggest blast on plane: not wreckage of the plane, but body parts!
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...blast-on-plane

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    Quote Originally Posted by Thom View Post
    Does anyone know if the made any manouveres like course or altitude adjustment just before the hard turn reported by the greeks ?
    The official, Ehab Azmy, who is head of Egypt's state-run provider of air navigation services, told the Associated Press that the plane had been flying at its normal height of 37,000ft (11,280m) before dropping off the radar.
    Vs
    Greece's defence minister Panos Kammenos had said the radar showed the Airbus A320 making two sharp turns and dropping more than 25,000ft (7,620m) before plunging into the Mediterranean Sea.

    Seems to me that one radar captured more data. It is unlikely that the Greek radar would give such a specific misread.

    Edit: is it possible the Egyptian authorities are looking at SSR data?

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    OMG the Egyptian authorities are acting as bad as the Indonesians...

    Greeks say plane made course adjustments - Egyptians deny this (Greeks, to their credit, don't say another word)
    Egyptian official says 'explosion likely' - another says too early to tell
    Now reports that the crew were in radio contact about smoke/fire on board from French news source (no data to back this up yet) - Egyptians denying this also

    All this too'ing and fro'ing shows a complete lack of professionalism from the Egyptian authorities - They would do as well if they followed all the speculation on this site - in fact I believe that some comments on this site are worth more than lots we have heard from the Egyptian authorities so far

  9. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by vaztr View Post
    All this too'ing and fro'ing shows a complete lack of professionalism from the Egyptian authorities - They would do as well if they followed all the speculation on this site - in fact I believe that some comments on this site are worth more than lots we have heard from the Egyptian authorities so far
    They're still saying EgyptAir 990 was a mechanical failure in 2016.

    At this stage if it doesn't come from BEA/NTSB then I would automatically question it.
    AirDisaster.com Forum Member 2004-2008

    Quote Originally Posted by orangehuggy View Post
    the most dangerous part of a flight is not the take off or landing anymore, its when a flight crew member goes to the toilet

  10. #90
    Senior Member 3WE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quench View Post
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    If your diagram and comments are accurate, I'd comment that making an 'exact' 90 degree turn and an 'exact' 360 seems pretty un-coincidental. No clue what their intent might be, but not too hard to come up with speculation that they may have been 'in control' and maneuvering for some sort of 'preferred' landing spot.
    Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 3WE View Post
    If your diagram and comments are accurate, I'd comment that making an 'exact' 90 degree turn and an 'exact' 360 seems pretty un-coincidental. No clue what their intent might be, but not too hard to come up with speculation that they may have been 'in control' and maneuvering for some sort of 'preferred' landing spot.
    The diagram show only to top view. This was a spiral nose down and they lost 22.000 feet. The question is what caused the initial LEFT hard over ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by vaztr View Post
    OMG the Egyptian authorities are acting as bad as the Indonesians...

    Greeks say plane made course adjustments - Egyptians deny this (Greeks, to their credit, don't say another word)
    Egyptian official says 'explosion likely' - another says too early to tell
    Now reports that the crew were in radio contact about smoke/fire on board from French news source (no data to back this up yet) - Egyptians denying this also

    All this too'ing and fro'ing shows a complete lack of professionalism from the Egyptian authorities - They would do as well if they followed all the speculation on this site - in fact I believe that some comments on this site are worth more than lots we have heard from the Egyptian authorities so far
    Everyone saying something ... why we are not waiting until collecting data .. get black box ... it is not correct to issue any informatiob without evedince ... till now we do not know why fly dubai 981 failed ...it takes time ... why egyptair 804 everyone is looking to get final report very fast... USA for egypt air that crashed in USA 1999 they said pilot killed himself ... it seems like old magic that cause all problems in the world ...
    we need to follow scientifice rules until we get the results ...

  13. #93
    Senior Member Evan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mecheil.edwar View Post
    Everyone saying something ... why we are not waiting until collecting data .. get black box ... it is not correct to issue any informatiob without evedince ... till now we do not know why fly dubai 981 failed ...it takes time ... why egyptair 804 everyone is looking to get final report very fast... USA for egypt air that crashed in USA 1999 they said pilot killed himself ... it seems like old magic that cause all problems in the world ...
    we need to follow scientifice rules until we get the results ...
    We have a shred of evidence and we can speculate on that. The actual cause might not be known for a long time to come and if it has anything to do with correctable design or maintenance issues we really need to know that as soon as possible. That is why I am hoping to get at least a useful interim report released very fast (and thus the flight recorders retrieved without delay). In the meantime, we should be doing fleetwide inspections of avionics wiring and replacing any remaining MPET or AN26 thermal acoustic insulation in any commercial aircraft. We don't need to know what happened here to know that we need to do this. Beyond that, we should be pushing for retrofits of conventional CB's with the new generation of AFCB's.

    Back in 2008, US Rep. Bart Gordon (D-TN), Chairman of the Science and Technology Committee, in a letter to FAA acting administrator Robert Sturgell, asked for these things to be mandated and expedited. Because back in 2008, the threat was well-known and the FAA was still dragging its feet on the issue.

    It is possible that the loss of Egyptair 804 is related to this deficiency, and we can be taking steps right now to deal with that, even if we never know what happened here.

  14. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by Evan View Post
    We have a shred of evidence and we can speculate on that. The actual cause might not be known for a long time to come and if it has anything to do with correctable design or maintenance issues we really need to know that as soon as possible. That is why I am hoping to get at least a useful interim report released very fast (and thus the flight recorders retrieved without delay). In the meantime, we should be doing fleetwide inspections of avionics wiring and replacing any remaining MPET or AN26 thermal acoustic insulation in any commercial aircraft. We don't need to know what happened here to know that we need to do this. Beyond that, we should be pushing for retrofits of conventional CB's with the new generation of AFCB's.

    Back in 2008, US Rep. Bart Gordon (D-TN), Chairman of the Science and Technology Committee, in a letter to FAA acting administrator Robert Sturgell, asked for these things to be mandated and expedited. Because back in 2008, the threat was well-known and the FAA was still dragging its feet on the issue.

    It is possible that the loss of Egyptair 804 is related to this deficiency, and we can be taking steps right now to deal with that, even if we never know what happened here.
    Indeed. We should be grounding aircraft and fixing things that may not be broken.
    Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

  15. #95
    Senior Member Evan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 3WE View Post
    Indeed. We should be grounding aircraft and fixing things that may not be broken.
    The flammability of MPET and AN-26 has been well-established. Limited AD's were issued. The inability of conventional CB's to detect transient arcing events is well-acknowledged in the industry and led to the development of AFCB's.

    We should be fixing what we know is dangerous. Fleetwide.

  16. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by mecheil.edwar View Post
    Everyone saying something ... why we are not waiting until collecting data .. get black box ... it is not correct to issue any informatiob without evedince ... till now we do not know why fly dubai 981 failed ...it takes time ... why egyptair 804 everyone is looking to get final report very fast... USA for egypt air that crashed in USA 1999 they said pilot killed himself ... it seems like old magic that cause all problems in the world ...
    we need to follow scientifice rules until we get the results ...
    This forum is made for speculations, thats why it is here. It may function as a game for special intersts but it is also read by officials and investigators to come across alternative thoughts and possible solutions seen from an outside angle.

  17. #97
    Senior Member 3WE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Evan View Post
    The ability of conventional CB's to generate transient arcing events, heavy rain, hail, turbulence, wind shear and microbursts is well-acknowledged in the industry and led to the development of OBDWSDAS.
    Concur?
    Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

  18. #98
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    ....... and led to the development of OBDWSDAS.
    Any chance of us thickos having that in English ?
    If it 'ain't broken........ Don't try to mend it !


  19. #99
    Senior Member Evan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 3WE View Post
    Concur?
    And of course you would know what an AFCB is if you had actually read my previous post (#82) but that would be a crazy dream on this forum.

  20. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by Evan View Post
    And of course you would know what an AFCB is if you had actually read my previous post (#82) but that would be a crazy dream on this forum.
    He is just playing with the double meaning of CB. Nice that "transient arcing" applies to both.

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