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Thread: Nepal plane crash: Aircraft bursts into flames at Kathmandu airport

  1. #21
    Senior Member 3WE's Avatar
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    Ok Gabe, you win.

    We have a lot of female voices making very professional exchanges.

    Then a goofy male voice takes over from the airplane and he sounds a tad impaired and confused.

    We also get a male tower controller. His confusion is different: 'What the hell is this guy doing'. It sounds like worried attempts to help.

    Soooo...weeks have gone by...where's a timeline? A good description of the flight path? CVR insight? Was the male voice confirmed to be THE pilot, or has someone else taken control?

    AND- Do we hear a split second of commotion with both voices? Edit- that was the tower folks.

    Know what- the dudes voice is so strange, it could almost be a Germanwings or terrorist intentional crash? Maybe he was a crappy pilot and intended to hit the terminal but missed?
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  2. #22
    Senior Member Gabriel's Avatar
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    Sorry 3WE, that is too much speculation even for me.
    I will not say "wait for the final report", but let's wait until we have some information that gives any clue.
    At this point the cause of the crash could have been a meteorite.

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  3. #23
    Senior Member 3WE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    At this point the cause of the crash could have been a meteorite.
    If you are serious, I'm worried about you.

    Yeah...I'm speculating, and the final report is not in.

    Conversely

    Some of us use a process: 1) Look at the facts, 2) Consider theories that are consistent with the facts. 3) Discuss. (That's discuss, not declare)

    Sometimes speculation is weak...737 runs off the right side of the runway...failure of the right main shimmy damper.

    Sometimes your odds are better: Private pilot enters cloud...exits in an extreme attitude...yeah, meteor, right? And yeah, we NEVER know until the final report...could have been that a control cable broke...

    So, let's speculate about a meteor. We have a woman pilot with a deep seeded fear of meteorites. She sees one and freaks out that she knows it's going to hit the plane and turns over control to the captain and curls up on the floor in the fetal position and quietly whimpers. He also knows the meteorite is going to hit the plane, knowing he is going to die, he does a quick line of cocaine and proceeds to make somewhat off-kilter, polite reponses to the tower and, one last time, enjoys the freedom of maneuvering an aircraft (to hell with the approach plate). Finally the meteor (which is small, and not seen by anyone else) clips the elevator causing an irreversible dive across the airport to taxiway Delta.

    Indeed, your proposed possible cause of the crash is plausible! We better wait for the final report.

    The near-total switch from by the Evan-book woman to the polite, goofy guy confusing two zero and zero two + the tower seemingly disturbed by maneuvers and you probably still argue that "something went wrong on-board" is speculative...
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  4. #24
    Senior Member Gabriel's Avatar
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    We have 2 different voices in the cockpit and 3 different voices in the tower (and in both places the ladies seem quite more professional that the gentlemen). Both the tower and the cockpit gentlemen make mistakes confusing zero-two with two-zero (I think calling it twenty is more robust and gives less opportunities for error). The guy in the cockpit makes this mistake more times that TWR, but this is not a competition. Other than these mistakes, I don't see anything too strange in the male pilot voice that cannot be explained by a strong non-native-English accent, and the mistakes can be explained by fatigue rather than alcohol or drugs.

    I love the kind of fact-based speculation that you mention. Just that in this case I don't see that we have any fact (or enough facts) that can lead us to a constructive fact-based speculation.

    In any event, my comment was just my personal impression and I don't have the intention (nor the power) to prevent that anybody discusses or speculates as they please, and I might get engaged in that conversation too. Feel free.

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  5. #25
    Senior Member 3WE's Avatar
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    Do NOT tell me this:

    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    At this point the cause of the crash could have been a meteorite.
    And THEN tell me this:

    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel
    I love the kind of fact-based speculation that you mention.
    AND, do NOT tell me that:

    We SUDDENLY switch from a professional gal on course to a dude who Evan thinks needs toxicological tests (I agree), who flies all over the place, talks in a very calm voice and then crashes with no distress call, and that the explanation is that he's not good with English? (or tired or on drugs/EtOH)? And we might as well say it's a meteor?

    And I know that a lot of Indians are still doing arranged marriages and stuff, but I'm thinking they may have heard of CRM...where the professional acting gal should be able to assist with English, or fatigue or drugs or sudden medical issue...I'm thinking that if an Indian airline is going to let a girl drive, it's gotten beyond some older expectations of sex roles.

    Quote Originally Posted by What a typical CVR SHOULD say:
    Excuse me Captain, you seem to be having a medical issue and flying all over the place, please give me the airplane...ummm tower, we have a problem.(The bold part should be audible on tower tapes.)
    So what happened to Flygirl? I guess there's nothing unusual about her disappearance from the ATC tapes.
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    Quote Originally Posted by 3WE View Post
    Do NOT tell me this:



    And THEN tell me this:



    AND, do NOT tell me that:

    We SUDDENLY switch from a professional gal on course to a dude who Evan thinks needs toxicological tests (I agree), who flies all over the place, talks in a very calm voice and then crashes with no distress call, and that the explanation is that he's not good with English? (or tired or on drugs/EtOH)? And we might as well say it's a meteor?

    And I know that a lot of Indians are still doing arranged marriages and stuff, but I'm thinking they may have heard of CRM...where the professional acting gal should be able to assist with English, or fatigue or drugs or sudden medical issue...I'm thinking that if an Indian airline is going to let a girl drive, it's gotten beyond some older expectations of sex roles.



    So what happened to Flygirl? I guess there's nothing unusual about her disappearance from the ATC tapes.
    One of the interesting things to me is there was a video of the plane on in question executing a go-around immediately prior to the crash, I am very curious where in the ATC dialog that occurred.

  7. #27
    Senior Member Gabriel's Avatar
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    3we, you can stop with the meteor already. Obviously I didn't mean it. And you know that.

    --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
    --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

  8. #28
    Senior Member 3WE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    3we, you can stop with the meteor already. Obviously I didn't mean it. And you know that.
    Do you agree that "sudden change in voice, professionalism and possibly impairment" + "Sudden disturbing changes in flight path" + "No return of gal" + "No distress call" = an area that warrants further investigation?

    My wording was "could almost be" and then I listed two possibilities...not exactly a final conclusion nor does that say "highly likely".

    Speculation, yes. But wild speculation when it could just as well be a meteor? THAT Kind of begs an old fashioned flame war.
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  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Schwartz View Post
    One of the interesting things to me is there was a video of the plane on in question executing a go-around immediately prior to the crash, I am very curious where in the ATC dialog that occurred.
    Please elaborate! (I know, you probably can't, but asking semi-rhetorically)

    (Ugh- so many missing factoids.)

    Go around from a reasonably OK approach to a runway or a crazy approach?...last minute go around or early lazy go around?, distressed looking or calm-controlled looking?...and to WHAT RUNWAY?

    (How does this jive with 'missing the tower and terminal and trying to land on Taxiway D'?)

    Much strangeness here.
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  10. #30
    Senior Member Gabriel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 3WE View Post
    Do you agree that "sudden change in voice, professionalism and possibly impairment" + "Sudden disturbing changes in flight path" + "No return of gal" + "No distress call" = an area that warrants further investigation?
    Yes.

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  11. #31
    Senior Member Evan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 3WE View Post

    Know what- the dudes voice is so strange, it could almost be a Germanwings or terrorist intentional crash? Maybe he was a crappy pilot and intended to hit the terminal but missed?
    I seems odd that he would repeatedly ask for landing clearance if he was intending to crash.

    The last transmission might provide a clue though. He has asked for landing clearance and received VERY CLEAR landing clearance. A moment later he asks "to check that, are we clear to land?"

    Why? Does he have the short term memory of a carrot, was he that mentally impaired, were there distractions in the cockpit that we can't hear on the ATC tape, or did he see something on the ground that made him question the clearance?

    It's an odd question, but one a terrorist or a homicidal pilot wouldn't be likely to ask unless he had a very dark sense of humor.

    My money is on fatigue, intoxication (including cabin air toxins), a medical condition or just not being the brightest bulb in the cockpit.

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by 3WE View Post
    Please elaborate! (I know, you probably can't, but asking semi-rhetorically)

    (Ugh- so many missing factoids.)

    Go around from a reasonably OK approach to a runway or a crazy approach?...last minute go around or early lazy go around?, distressed looking or calm-controlled looking?...and to WHAT RUNWAY?

    (How does this jive with 'missing the tower and terminal and trying to land on Taxiway D'?)

    Much strangeness here.

    Here is the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBgcC3OlqfQ
    Despite comments on AVHerald, the plane looks fine to me.

    These comments are also interesting:
    I read enough rumours to know what probably happened here.

    According to pieces of this puzzle at other sites and Simon's excellent research here, this poor Devil Captain was reportedly on his 5th sector with absolutely no help from anyone.

    He reportedly had a co-pilot with no experience to speak of.
    He had absolutely no ATC at all. The VHF comm was reportedly broken and they were using portable garbage with echos and nulls. They reportedly didn't know how to do vectors anymore, and didn't want to do it.

    The FMS likely killed these people. I know, I know what you're going to say! They should have been able to program the life-saving magenta line for the tired Capain. But just one runway change in the pattern, takes the F/O out of the loop until base in the A310. By the time his head comes up, he doesn't know where he is, what direction the airplane is headed, and is behind on checklists and radio work. Now if he botches the build, the tired Capt has to turn on DME only.

  13. #33
    Senior Member 3WE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Evan View Post
    My money is on fatigue, intoxication (including cabin air toxins), a medical condition or just not being the brightest bulb in the cockpit.
    Explain how those things can happen so quickly without any word of distress or word from Flygirl nor Happyman? The two of them being silent about a problem is a big oddity.

    Shouldn't happyman speak up if Flygirl has passed out? (Even if HE is suffering from CO/burnt turbo oil)? Shouldn't Flygirl speak up if happy man is having a medical crisis? Remember to put this in a context of a significant amount of unexplained maneuvering. (Over a pretty significant time period and in context of a fairly sudden change)

    Not impossible, but not that much crazier than a stoned, hallucinating, suicidal pilot thinking he'll have some fun with ATC on the way out...

    And yeah, Schwartzezezez link to the go around...I note a shallow turn (which does not seem 100% kosher- OR maybe it is) but it otherwise seems in control.

    Restating- much craziness, and not trying to dismiss Evan's theory as much as list the counter arguments...AND SHOULDN'T THERE BE SOME REPORT ON THE CVR AND SOME ROUGH RECONSTRUCTION OF THE ACTUAL FLIGHT TRACK BASED ON ATC STATEMENTS BY NOW?????

    ...and yes, I cannot resist telling Evan that it could just as well be a meteor (Sorry Gabe).
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  14. #34
    Senior Member Evan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 3WE View Post
    Explain how those things can happen so quickly without any word of distress or word from Flygirl nor Happyman? The two of them being silent about a problem is a big oddity.
    Google: "cockpit gradient in third-world cultures"

  15. #35
    Senior Member 3WE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Evan View Post
    Google: "cockpit gradient in third-world cultures"
    I actually mentioned that above.

    Conversely, if you claim that, then you need to pull 'medical' off the table as an option, because questioning the captain is one thing, but unless he is having a special, subtle stroke, someone would probably throw subservience out the window (AND as I stated earlier, I'm thinking CRM is taught this century, even if the men make eye contact and nod sarcastically at the crazy suggestion that women be listened to).

    FWIW, while the Indian culture may have some older, unenlightened economic and sexual discriminatory tendencies, they are somewhat big on hierarchy, process and arguing...aka...they ought to be good on checklists and procedures and safety decision trees.

    Are we suggesting that perhaps (not trying to force anything on you and Gabe), Flygirlbuptah is great on the radio and sucks at flying...she takes the plane, he takes the radios...and then possibly drunk Happycaptainpraptapt maybe gently mentored and coached her as she struggled with IMC and control and runways and go-arounds until it was too late?

    Indeed, I'll take that before a meteor.
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  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by 3WE View Post
    as she struggled with IMC...
    VNKT 120850Z 26007KT 140V300 7000 FEW015 FEW025CB SCT030 BKN100 21/10 Q1015 NOSIG CB TO SE AND S=
    VNKT 120820Z 28008KT 240V320 6000 TS FEW015 FEW025CB SCT030 22/11 Q1015 NOSIG CB TO SE S AND SW=

    Conversely, if you claim that, then you need to pull 'medical' off the table as an option, because questioning the captain is one thing, but unless he is having a special, subtle stroke, someone would probably throw subservience out the window (AND as I stated earlier, I'm thinking CRM is taught this century, even if the men make eye contact and nod sarcastically at the crazy suggestion that women be listened to).
    You would think, but...

    Quote Originally Posted by The Spirit Air fumes incident Gabe brought up yesterday
    ...the captain returned to duty a couple of days after the first officer, however, was described as unconcentrated and erratic throughout the following flights developing eye-hand coordination issues and increasingly unusual behaviour.
    That's, ugh, flights, with an 's'. Multiple flights of behaving like this, in the front left seat of a passenger jet.

    Captains seem to get a lot of rope before anyone wants to step in.

  17. #37
    Senior Member 3WE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Evan View Post
    [Spirit Nasty Oil Additive Fume Incident]

    That's, ugh, flights, with an 's'. Multiple flights of behaving like this, in the front left seat of a passenger jet.

    Captains seem to get a lot of rope before anyone wants to step in.
    Yes, MULTIPLE flights...

    BUT...

    Multiple flights where it seems that the planes did not randomly turn off course to another runway, where a 'seemingly totally professional' pilot disappeared from the conversation, where the planes did not crash and maybe (yeah maybe) where the CRM was solid.

    Not really an apples to apples deal.
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  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Evan View Post
    VNKT 120850Z 26007KT 140V300 7000 FEW015 FEW025CB SCT030 BKN100 21/10 Q1015 NOSIG CB TO SE AND S=
    VNKT 120820Z 28008KT 240V320 6000 TS FEW015 FEW025CB SCT030 22/11 Q1015 NOSIG CB TO SE S AND SW=
    ...Yup...and there's that time period where they guys have lost sight of the airport...bad angle on the windows to the runway?, or punching through a cloud (it is IMC when you are inside one)?, or perhaps meteors obstructing the view?

    (Sorry Gabe, too much of a chuckle factor to not cite that).
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  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by 3WE View Post
    (Sorry Gabe, too much of a chuckle factor to not cite that).
    Don't worry. I gave up a couple of days ago.

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  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by 3WE View Post
    ...Yup...and there's that time period where they guys have lost sight of the airport...bad angle on the windows to the runway?, or punching through a cloud (it is IMC when you are inside one)?, or perhaps meteors obstructing the view?

    (Sorry Gabe, too much of a chuckle factor to not cite that).
    Another comment from avherald:

    @Roger There are worried Nepali pilots , Yeti Airlines, that are worried if the pilot are lost . The video coming out of them turning just before a hill is the moment . They suggest ATC to bring them back from the mountains, you can hear them on the recordings talkin in Nepali. (watch?v=BBgcC3OlqfQ)

    After this ATC do ask them
    (unclear)...radar vector..(unclear).

    Pilot probably ignored it.
    PS Since we're past the meteor how about I raise you a Chinese space station?

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