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Thread: Breaking news: Ethiopian Airlines flight has crashed on way to Nairobi

  1. #141
    Senior Member 3WE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Evan View Post
    No? What is the 3WE anti-procedure for UAS again? Oh, right, fly at known power levels and attitudes. Fly the GD plane. It's NOT A CESSNA, but Physics is Physics

    Oh, except it just pitched down? WTF is going on? How do I stay safely in the speed envelope now? Trim back up. Pitch back up. Now what is my airspeed? Ok, back to known... nope... it keeps wanting to pitch down. I can't establish a known attitude here. Whoa! Stickshaker! What is my airspeed? I've got a FEEL DIFF PRESS light? Everything is happening too fast to sort out and by the way what's the deal with the trim coming back on after I just— (time expired)
    I don't know what YOU are doing with your airplane Evan...

    My airplane stayed within 5 degrees of the desired climb attitude and my airspeed within 15 knots of target (correct, I don't know what it is, but it's "not going anywhere exotic")...I'm continuing up to my assigned altitude while the Pilot-fancy-acronym-other-guy is running various memory procedures and checklists (maybe even to your 98% of your satisfaction level).

    I bet Gabe's airplane is performing similarly to mine...unfortunately his explanation will take much longer to read- but it will be somewhat more accurate than mine, though fundamentally not all that different.

    I don't know what the FEEL DIFF PRESS light means, nor do I give a flying [naughty word] what it means. I read that I can put in nose-up trim all day...and if that keeps me above the cumulogranite clouds, then that's exactly what's going to be done.

    Bobby is probably doing this with twice the panache and half the deviations. He probably understands what FEEL DIFF PRESS means, but somehow I think he's not unnecessarily distracted by it and his airplane is climbing too.

    It's an awesome system.
    Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

  2. #142
    Senior Member 3WE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    Fixed.
    Noted.
    Concur.
    Thanks.
    Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

  3. #143
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    Quote Originally Posted by 3WE View Post
    May I guess that the vast majority of pilots would win that?

    May I challenge you and ask if you see this system as something that is going to fool more folks than "*should be" fooled

    (*Yes, you can't make it 100.0000% fool proof against ALL idiots, but there is always that subtle insidiousness like 99.9% of the time you pull up to go up).
    And you might stub your toe on the way out your front door later today too.

  4. #144
    Senior Member BoeingBobby's Avatar
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    Until these two accidents, I had never even heard of the MCAS system. And I have zero experience in any model of the 737. Probably why I didn't know that they kept the old trim wheel design. I have an old Atlas friend that went over to Southwest about 12 years ago, and have asked him to explain it and give me his thoughts on the system. Let you know when I hear back from him.

  5. #145
    Senior Member 3WE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BoeingBobby View Post
    And you might stub your toe on the way out your front door later today too.
    I have also crashed my bicycle a few times too.
    Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

  6. #146
    Senior Member Evan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BoeingBobby View Post
    Until these two accidents, I had never even heard of the MCAS system. And I have zero experience in any model of the 737. Probably why I didn't know that they kept the old trim wheel design. I have an old Atlas friend that went over to Southwest about 12 years ago, and have asked him to explain it and give me his thoughts on the system. Let you know when I hear back from him.
    It will be interesting to learn if he knows any more about it then a bunch of parlour-talking forumites.

  7. #147
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    IANAP. I'm a statistician. Dealing with uncertainty is what I do. We have it here in spades.

    I refer to whether the FAA should ground (as many other respected agencies have done) or not. If they are being objective and using the same information (or lack thereof) then one would not expect this difference. Determining risk is their day job.

    Lion Air was MCAS related. If this incident were to be also found to be MCAS related then I assume everybody here would agree that grounding until an acceptable fix was in place would be the correct course. This in particular because as a new aircraft the number of hours flown is building rapidly as more come into service and two losses in such a short time would indicate there is a significant risk of another incident.

    But of course we do not know. We do know that most of the circumstantial evidence is compatible with a MCAS induced incident. It's the strength of what experienced pilots and aircraft engineers would bet their lifesavings on whether it will be, or not. 20%, 50%? Even the lower figure if taken as a risk factor and multiplied up by the hours being flown I would have thought, taken the Max into risk territory that would trigger grounding.

    My thoughts, but don't dwell on them too long since we must be getting very close to the first read out of the flight recorders which, again I assume, will point towards or away from MCAS enabling all the agencies to lift or enforce no-fly conditions. Will it be that simple?

  8. #148
    Senior Member Gabriel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BoeingBobby View Post
    Until these two accidents, I had never even heard of the MCAS system. And I have zero experience in any model of the 737. Probably why I didn't know that they kept the old trim wheel design. I have an old Atlas friend that went over to Southwest about 12 years ago, and have asked him to explain it and give me his thoughts on the system. Let you know when I hear back from him.
    In your defense, NOBODY outside Boeing (and perhaps the FAA) had heard of the MCAS system before the Lion AIR crash, when EVERYBODY heard about it.
    Also it is a new system in the MAX. Previous versions of the 737 (including the NG) did not have it.

    --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
    --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

  9. #149
    Senior Member Gabriel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Evan View Post
    What happens just prior to a MCAS runaway on the NG?
    That's kinda asking what happens if the FBW reverts to alternate law in the 707. (I know, you meant MAX not NG)

    --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
    --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

  10. #150
    Senior Member Gabriel's Avatar
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    Evan, please keep this into mind:

    You WILL SEE AND HEAR the trim wheel spinning. You cannot miss that.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3pPRuFHR1co

    --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
    --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

  11. #151
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    Trump orders 737 MAX to be grounded: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47562727

  12. #152
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    Trump just announced grounding of the 737 max fleet in US.

  13. #153
    Senior Member Gabriel's Avatar
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    I am fed up of "we have evidence", "there is new information", "new data suggests that"...

    Why sin't anybody saying clearly this, this, and that suggest that this incident can be related to MCAS?

    --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
    --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

  14. #154
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    Quote Originally Posted by pierpp View Post
    Trump orders 737 MAX to be grounded: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47562727
    So it's official: a 13 years old kid typing on his keyboard "this plane felt down for the same reason of previous one" is enough to cause billions dollar of consequences.
    It's terrifying.
    We are doomed.

  15. #155
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    I am fed up of "we have evidence", "there is new information", "new data suggests that"...

    Why sin't anybody saying clearly this, this, and that suggest that this incident can be related to MCAS?
    Just because nobody knows anything, but everybody is typing.

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    I really hope the real root cause will be different from MCAS and that Boeing will sue every single person in the world which typed it is.

  17. #157
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    Evan, please keep this into mind:

    You WILL SEE AND HEAR the trim wheel spinning. You cannot miss that.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3pPRuFHR1co
    This is a 737 classic Gabe.

  18. #158
    Senior Member Peter Kesternich's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jumpjack View Post
    I really hope the real root cause will be different from MCAS and that Boeing will sue every single person in the world which typed it is.
    So you think there is no virtue in erring on the side of caution when people's lives are at stake? I think there is and I also think in that respect we have come a long way since Comets broke up in flight, DC-10s lost cargo doors and engines, or Lockheed Electra wings fluttered beyond the breaking point...

  19. #159
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    Quote Originally Posted by jumpjack View Post
    I really hope the real root cause will be different from MCAS and that Boeing will sue every single person in the world which typed it is.
    The world would be doomed if you ran it.

  20. #160
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    I just read (or heard on TV) that Germany can't review the Max black boxes because they are a new type and they do not have read-out equipment.

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