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Thread: Breaking news: Ethiopian Airlines flight has crashed on way to Nairobi

  1. #261
    Senior Member Gabriel's Avatar
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    I just heard that in the Ethiopian crash the jackscrew of the stabilizer was found in an aircraft-nose-down position. This must be the "evidence found on the ground".

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  2. #262
    Senior Member Evan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    I just heard that in the Ethiopian crash the jackscrew of the stabilizer was found in an aircraft-nose-down position. This must be the "evidence found on the ground".
    I guess the question is: how far down?

  3. #263
    Senior Member Gabriel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Evan View Post
    I guess the question is: how far down?
    I bet that quite more than it should. Otherwise they would have not crashed (assuming that they crashed because of this).

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  4. #264
    Senior Member Evan's Avatar
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    Meanwhile, the Wall Street Data Recorder has been read out for the week. It shows a sharp, sudden descent followed by a surpisingly rapid stabilization and a small but steady positive vertical rate.

    This does not appear to be indicative of technical problems with the aircraft that might lead to a crash.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BA?p=BA&.tsrc=fin-srch

  5. #265
    Senior Member Gabriel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    I bet that quite more than it should. Otherwise they would have not crashed (assuming that they crashed because of this).
    Full nose-down according to this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AgkmJ1U2M_Q

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  6. #266
    Senior Member Gabriel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Evan View Post
    Meanwhile, the Wall Street Data Recorder has been read out for the week. It shows a sharp, sudden descent followed by a surpisingly rapid stabilization and a small but steady positive vertical rate.

    This does not appear to be indicative of technical problems with the aircraft that might lead to a crash.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BA?p=BA&.tsrc=fin-srch
    It's a good time to buy Boeing shares.

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  7. #267
    Senior Member Evan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    It's a good time to buy Boeing shares.
    We should wait for the report ; |

  8. #268
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    It's a good time to buy Boeing shares.
    I was paying close attention to this since it was first announced. It hit the lowest point at the opening on the first day. Not enough of a discount IMO. They only dropped ~11% and less now. You know it isn't that much of a drop when they quote the number in absolute terms (i.e. they dropped XXX Billion dollars). The absolute number is meaningless and their revenue could easily be impacted just by the delay in shipments. It seems there aren't enough panicky investors of this stock. One article I read put it nicely: What are the airlines going to do? Switch planes? Far too expensive to do that once they've committed such a huge up front investment.

    It will be the revenues of the airlines that are the most impacted. Air Canada alone is losing 12K passenger flights per day.

  9. #269
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    Full nose-down according to this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AgkmJ1U2M_Q
    Nice video. Didn't realize it was such a large mechanical wheel in the flight deck. Now why didn't they announce the jack screw finding while announcing everything else?

  10. #270
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    737 max 8 is dead, no one would like to board this plane ever.

  11. #271
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    It's a good time to buy Boeing shares.
    I have a bunch of Boeing shares. Not planning to sell anytime soon or to buy any more.
    While their commercial aircraft are doing well some other products (new T-X trainer and KC-46 tanker amongst others) were bid at low prices and will depend on future sales).

  12. #272
    Senior Member Evan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Highkeas View Post
    I have a bunch of Boeing shares. Not planning to sell anytime soon or to buy any more.
    While their commercial aircraft are doing well some other products (new T-X trainer and KC-46 tanker amongst others) were bid at low prices and will depend on future sales).
    You are aware that Boeing sold Southwest their MAX's at a 64% discount? Around $35M apiece. Low bid prices is the name of the game these days.

    There's an old saying, "You want it bad, you get it bad". I hope that doesn't apply here...

  13. #273
    Senior Member Peter Kesternich's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thor View Post
    737 max 8 is dead, no one would like to board this plane ever.
    This comment will definitely turn out to be false. The problem will be fixed and the MAX will have a long and successful career...

  14. #274
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    Quote Originally Posted by Peter Kesternich View Post
    The problem will be fixed and the MAX will have a long and successful career...
    Yes and yes but probably not as long and successful as Boeing thought six months ago. It's hard not to imagine that this seals no further enhancement of this airframe and accelerates the development of a more stable successor. Plus a slowdown in airlines' NG replacement plans in anticipation. Moves that will, in the medium term, may have a greater negative impact on Boeing's profitibility than this immediate problem. Airbus too - as they will have to match it.

    It was to delay that huge investment that the MAX was put together.

  15. #275
    Senior Member Peter Kesternich's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brainsys View Post
    Yes and yes but probably not as long and successful as Boeing thought six months ago. It's hard not to imagine that this seals no further enhancement of this airframe and accelerates the development of a more stable successor. Plus a slowdown in airlines' NG replacement plans in anticipation. Moves that will, in the medium term, may have a greater negative impact on Boeing's profitibility than this immediate problem. Airbus too - as they will have to match it.

    It was to delay that huge investment that the MAX was put together.
    Well - we all know (and I believe the people at Boeing do too) that the 737 has reached the end of its development possibilities. I honestly think that all those orders for the MAX (and to some extent the NEO as well) are only because there is no better alternative. If Boeing get their act together they develop a real successor to the 737 (maybe in combination with the "797", similar to what they did with the 757/767 program) and allow customers to switch their MAX orders to the new plane. That would put huge pressure on Airbus to come up with something new as well, just like the 787 pushed them into creating the A350.

  16. #276
    Senior Member TeeVee's Avatar
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    at what point is society going to wake up and force a drastic change to capitalist (read: wall street) based management of everything in our lives, including safety? it's infected even the supposed regulators, like the FAA, which in the face of most of the developed world, refused to do anything to protect life in exchange for protecting the profits of an american company!

    i'm clearly not an expert in physics, aeronautics or engineering, but it seems that boeing took a stable airframe and modified it to the point that it became unstable or potentially unstable (but demonstrably so) in certain flight regimes. yet the FAA rubber stamped it.

    currently, the US government is seeking to ban the former VW boss from ever running or serving on the board of any US corp, for his involvement in the grand vw diesel lie, which killed NO ONE and merely hurt some folks' wallets (for which they are being compensated). my bet is, not a single head will roll at boeing or the faa, even though nearly 400 were killed in what can only be described as acts of reckless indifference to human life.

  17. #277
    Senior Member Evan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by avherald.com
    On Mar 17th 2019 the BEA reported the FDR data have been successfully downloaded and handed over to the Ethiopian Investigation Team. The work on the blackboxes is completed.
    I think we will probably see initial findings this week.

  18. #278
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    Some disturbing info here

    https://www.seattletimes.com/busines...ion-air-crash/


    After the Lion Air Flight 610 crash, Boeing for the first time provided to airlines details about MCAS. Boeing’s bulletin to the airlines stated that the limit of MCAS’s command was 2.5 degrees.

    That number was new to FAA engineers who had seen 0.6 degrees in the safety assessment.

    “The FAA believed the airplane was designed to the 0.6 limit, and that’s what the foreign regulatory authorities thought, too,” said an FAA engineer. “It makes a difference in your assessment of the hazard involved.

  19. #279
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    Quote Originally Posted by Peter Kesternich View Post
    That would put huge pressure on Airbus to come up with something new as well, just like the 787 pushed them into creating the A350.
    The A350 started out as a response to the 787, but ended up more of a response to the 777 after becoming an entirely new airplane (hence why Boeing responded with the 777X which moves out of reach of current A350 variants). In the majority of sales campaigns Airbus offers the A330 NEO as a contender against the 787.

  20. #280
    Senior Member Evan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Peter Kesternich View Post
    Well - we all know (and I believe the people at Boeing do too) that the 737 has reached the end of its development possibilities. I honestly think that all those orders for the MAX (and to some extent the NEO as well) are only because there is no better alternative.
    What drove both manufacturers to issue new models of these existing airframes was the new engine developments by P&W and CFM. Customers wanted the lower fuel burn (longer range), lower noise levels and lower emissions of these new turbofans. These things were achieved through higher bypass ratios, aerodynamic improvements and lighter composite materials. The major difference between Boeing and Airbus was that Airbus already had an appropriate airframe with the A320. All they had to do was hang new engines to achieve the 11:1 bypass offered by the CFM LEAP's 78" fan. Boeing, on the other hand, having pushed the 797 down the road, ostensibly as part of a short-term effort to preserve their market cap during a downturn, did not have an airframe capable of mounting these new engines. When AA announced their intended purchase of hundreds of A320NEO's, Boeing reacted by cobbling together a solution called the 737-Max. The solution involved reducing the fan diameter to 69" and thus reducing the bypass to 9:1, but it was enough, when combined with a fleet-commonality to the NG, to compete. This forced Boeing to push the 737 beyond its safe natural limits at the edge of the envelope and to downplay and minimize transition-training costs. The former issue was solved through artificial augmentation software. The latter one was solved through some reckless optimism and denial. The Max will certainly be the last of the 737's.

    I don't think this is necessarily the end of the A320 line however. That airframe was very well thought out for the needs of the future and lacks the physical restrictions and mechanical antiquity of the 737. I can foresee it continuing to compete with the Boeing 797 into the 2030's, perhaps with newer wings or other achievable modifications.

    Essentially, this is the story of visionary management prevailing over reactionary management. Aside from the modifications needed to make the 737-Max safe to operate, I hope these events to result in a purge of management culture at Boeing.

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