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Thread: Breaking news: Ethiopian Airlines flight has crashed on way to Nairobi

  1. #121
    Senior Member Evan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by HalcyonDays View Post
    But I question how deeply and broadly qualified an 8000 hour 29-year old captain also was...
    And, certainly, so will the investigation. But, from what we know and the interview given by the CEO of Ethiopian, he was a exceptional pilot who came on at the age of 16 and had been flying for 12 years. He was reportedly known as a very disciplined pilot. The CEO has stated, unequivocally, that the crew were given specific training after the Lion Air crash in accordance with the emergency AD that was issued and also completed the required transitional training for the MAX. Perhaps he was not strong enough on manual flight skills, not well-trained in upset recovery or not very reliable under stress, but there is nothing currently known to support that kind of speculation. I think all pilots will agree that we should not even begin to diminish the pilot until we know something factual. As for Eithiopian, they are a Star Alliance partner and have made great improvements over the years. I've read that their safety culture is among the best in the African market. It might come out that things have slid back since then, but again, without facts all you have is thinly-veiled racial prejudice to go by. You could assume the worst from airlines based out of, what the President of the United States likes to call: "shithole countries". I think it's more reasonable to consider the airplane unsafe based on factual knowledge than to consider the airline unsafe based on hearsay, speculation and xenophobia.

  2. #122
    Senior Member Evan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    Then ground all airplanes that have trim runaway as a possible failure mode. That is, ban all airplanes.
    So I guess we're not going to have an intelligent discussion about this.

  3. #123
    Senior Member Gabriel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 3WE View Post
    I'm thinking 8000 feet is plenty of time to pull a CB (I know you don't like that Evan) and crank the trim wheel back where it should be...
    (pst.. son't tell anybody, but the airfield elevation is 7,657′)

    That said, the first thing you can do is just trim up using the electric thumb switch. You can use the switch to 1: stop the automatic motion of the trim immediately, 2: trim the plane back to where you want and 3: keep the MCAS fro kicking in again for the next 5 seconds after the last thumb switch input. You can keep doing that for the remainder of the flight or, better and as prescribed in the procedure, use this 5 seconds pause to toggle the trim cutout switches, that will kill the electric motor for good and that means no MCAS, no A trim, to speed trim, no autotrim, and no thumb switch trim. Then you have to revert to the creankwheel.

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  4. #124
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    [QUOTE=3WE;679992]
    Quote Originally Posted by Bobieee
    It will ALWAYS come down to, click click, click click, and fly it like a regular old airplane. They all have standby artificial horizons.


    I guess I'd maybe like a redundant imminent stall warning thingie advising the nose-over thingie…

    But let's not gloss over some facts.

    I'm thinking 8000 feet is plenty of time to pull a CB (I know you don't like that Evan) and crank the trim wheel back where it should be...

    Just like 36,000 feet is enough time to consider if a relentless pull up might be causing a voice to say "stall stall" along with a mushing descent at low airspeed.

    The terrain elevation at the last transponder report is 8130 feet MSL per Aviation Herald.

  5. #125
    Senior Member 3WE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    Then ground all airplanes that have trim runaway as a possible failure mode. That is, ban all airplanes.
    Repating, in spite of the fact that Gabiee and Evanie tend to ignore me...

    Trim runaway is not_unheard of.

    Sometimes, I think you are supposed to pull CBs.

    Also to Evan: To hell with all type specific procedures- "Fly the plane first"...Click clack paddywhack AND turn off the trim...
    Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

  6. #126
    Senior Member 3WE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Highkeas and Gabieeee
    The terrain elevation at the last transponder report is 8130 feet MSL per Aviation Herald.
    For Lion Air?

    Please note: To date- we have not confirmed 1) that this stall warning nose over mechanism is what caused this crash. Also, to date, we have not confirmed that 2) stall warning nose over is something that's nefarious enough that the vast vast majority of pilots shouldn't have been able to handle it using trim-runaway TYPES of procedures...to have prevented Lion air.

    Valid discussion points, but not enough proof for conclusions on EITHER of these NOR the 737-MiniSink.
    Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

  7. #127
    Senior Member Evan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NY Times
    Canada’s transportation minister grounded all Boeing 737 Max jets on Wednesday morning, saying that newly available satellite-tracking data suggests similarities between the deadly crash involving one of the jets in Ethiopia on Sunday and another accident last October.

    Cautioning that the “new information is not conclusive,” Marc Garneau, the transportation minister, also said Canada would not allow any incursions into Canada’s airspace by the jets.
    But, by all means FAA, "stay the course".

  8. #128
    Senior Member Evan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 3WE View Post
    Trim runaway is not_unheard of.
    What happens when you pull back on the yoke in the NG? The trim runaway stops.

    What happens when you pull back on the yoke in the MAX? It doesn't stop.

    What happens when you use the trim switch in the NG? It stops.

    What happens when you use the trim switch in the MAX? It stops, then, after a confusing delay, it starts again.

    What happens when you use the cutout switches in the NG. It stops for good.

    What happens when you use the cutout switched in the MAX. It stops for good.

    How much time have you got?

    What is actually happening? You've been pulling up the whole time and now against a full-downward deflected stabilizer.

    Guess who wins that battle?

  9. #129
    Senior Member 3WE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Evan View Post
    How much time have you got?
    About 8000 feet worth...conservatively 3 minutes to hit that "cutout" switch (hopefully it's not too hard to get the guard out of the way).

    Please check back when we have the final report on this crash. IF that's the deal here, you have a valid point. I still have my doubts that it's valid for Lion Air.
    Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

  10. #130
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    Quote Originally Posted by Evan View Post
    What happens when you pull back on the yoke in the NG? The trim runaway stops.

    What happens when you pull back on the yoke in the MAX? It doesn't stop.

    What happens when you use the trim switch in the NG? It stops.

    What happens when you use the trim switch in the MAX? It stops, then, after a confusing delay, it starts again.

    What happens when you use the cutout switches in the NG. It stops for good.

    What happens when you use the cutout switched in the MAX. It stops for good.

    How much time have you got?

    What is actually happening? You've been pulling up the whole time and now against a full-downward deflected stabilizer.

    Guess who wins that battle?
    Perhaps if you had ever flown a real complex jet, you would know the answer to your last question!

  11. #131
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    From Today's Aviation Daily:

    Even if MCAS is considered too risky to be used in service, regulators have at least one option beyond grounding aircraft, a former regulatory official told Aviation Daily. “If MCAS is the problem, disconnect it,” the official said. “Establish revised operational limitations that reflect MCAS’s unavailability, such as not flying below certain airspeeds, and mandate them until the issue is resolved. There’s no need to ground the aircraft.”

    https://aviationweek.com/commercial-...e49c59bf575c6b

  12. #132
    Senior Member 3WE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    That said, the first thing you can do is just trim up using the electric thumb switch...details...
    To hell with the details Gabe...what's the bottom line?

    Is this system confusing enough that well trained, well-meaning pilots are going to get duped and driven into the ground...

    Should "fly the plane first" (Including continual trim up) give you adequate time to keep ahead of control pressures and maintain healthy attitudes...

    Are two folks going to sit there and let the thing trim itself into a dive without selecting nose up trim AND pulling on the control column...Sure it sucks and it's confusing, BUT it ought to keep the plane in the air.
    Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

  13. #133
    Senior Member Evan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 3WE View Post
    About 8000 feet worth...conservatively 3 minutes to hit that "cutout" switch (hopefully it's not too hard to get the guard out of the way).
    Check your AGL altitude and then redo your math.

    BTW: I forgot to add:

    What happens just prior to a trim runaway on the NG: Nothing.

    What happens just prior to a MCAS runaway on the NG: UAS.

    Confusing, isn't it?

  14. #134
    Senior Member 3WE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BoeingBobby View Post
    Perhaps if you had ever flown a real complex jet, you would know the answer to your last question!
    May I guess that the vast majority of pilots would win that?

    May I challenge you and ask if you see this system as something that is going to fool more folks than "*should be" fooled?…

    (*Yes, you can't make it 100.0000% fool proof against ALL idiots, but there is always that subtle insidiousness like 99.9% of the time you pull up to go up).
    Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

  15. #135
    Senior Member 3WE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Evan View Post
    Confusing, isn't it?
    No.

    "Fly the GD airplane" is not confusing at all.

    Full power, nose 20-something degrees up, VSI showing the climb it should, picture out the window familiar, and turn that automatic shit off.

    (I know, I'm just a parlour-talking outsider unlike you.)
    Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

  16. #136
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    [QUOTE=Highkeas;680001]
    Quote Originally Posted by 3WE View Post


    The terrain elevation at the last transponder report is 8130 feet MSL per Aviation Herald.
    If talking about Ethipian, its altitude was 8300 FT but elevation in aDDIS aBBABA IS 7,700ft

  17. #137
    Senior Member Evan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Highkeas View Post
    From Today's Aviation Daily:

    Even if MCAS is considered too risky to be used in service, regulators have at least one option beyond grounding aircraft, a former regulatory official told Aviation Daily. “If MCAS is the problem, disconnect it,” the official said. “Establish revised operational limitations that reflect MCAS’s unavailability, such as not flying below certain airspeeds, and mandate them until the issue is resolved. There’s no need to ground the aircraft.”

    https://aviationweek.com/commercial-...e49c59bf575c6b
    Genius! Disconnect the system needed to certify the aircraft and inform pilots not to stall until we get back to you. Some really serious logic vs bias imbalance going on there.

  18. #138
    Senior Member 3WE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kapitan View Post
    If talking about Ethipian, its altitude was 8300 FT but elevation in aDDIS aBBABA IS 7,700ft
    I again ask- is MCAS the cause of the Ethiopian crash...I was not aware it had been identified as the cause.

    Gabe and Bobby hinted at it- NORMAL FLYING THINGS over ride this system...NORMAL FLYING THINGS that apply to Cessna 172s, J-31's Q-400s, A-300s and MD-8x's 757s 767s 787s 747s 737-236as and 737-MiniSinks....Lion Air, Ethiopian...whatever.
    Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

  19. #139
    Senior Member Gabriel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 3WE View Post
    I again ask- is MCAS a factor in the Ethiopian crash...I was not aware it had been identified as anything remotely related to the accident other than it was installed in the plane, let alone the cause
    Fixed.

    --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
    --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

  20. #140
    Senior Member Evan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 3WE View Post
    No.
    No? What is the 3WE anti-procedure for UAS again? Oh, right, fly at known power levels and attitudes. Fly the GD plane. Because it's just a big Cessna.

    Oh, except it just pitched down? WTF is going on? How do I stay safely in the speed envelope now? Pitch back up. Trim back up. Now what is my airspeed? Ok, back to known... nope... it keeps wanting to pitch down. I can't establish a known attitude here. Whoa! Stickshaker! What is my airspeed? I've got a FEEL DIFF PRESS light? Everything is happening too fast to sort out and by the way what's the deal with the trim coming back on after I just— (time expired)

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