Any plans for MORE expansions for Southwest??

[FlyingTexan]

Any plans for MORE expansions for Southwest??

MONEY Magazine had Ned Davis Research compile a list of the 30 best-performing stocks since 1972.

Southwest Airlines came out on top as the No. 1 performer. Since August 1972, Southwest has produced annualized returns of 25.99 percent, which means that had you invested $10,000 in the Company 30 years ago, your stake would be worth a little over $10.2 million today.

"When you think about it, it is absolutely remarkable that Southwest could come out No. 1 despite being in probably the worst industry in America," says Jeremy Siegal, Wharton finance professor and author of "Stocks for the Long Run." "What it tells me and what it should tell your readers is just how valuable a good CEO with good strategies can be."

[ December 14, 2002 06:18 PM: Message edited 1 time, lastly by FlyingTexan ]

[Southwest737]

Any plans for MORE expansions for Southwest??

I seriously think that Southwest Needs to expand by flying from Juneau to LAX and back and Hawaii, etc. If that happened, who know Alaska and SWA will have tough competition, same as Aloha Airlines.

Its not so much as passion-I just simply respect their operations and how they run-But my one true love goes out for Delta Airlines. THEN I will go for Southwest Airlines. MY first choice is Delta, then I go for southwest should I not find a cheap flight. I am willing to bet that you will find Southwest at more cities where UAL flew-maybe Denver? They used to do service to San Francsico but ceased operations. Wonder if they will restart that service soon?

[OPNLguy]

Any plans for MORE expansions for Southwest??

If I had to venture a guess, I doubt SWA will be adding any cities anytime soon. The state of the economy has been a continuing factor, but there are now additional variables in play at the moment, namely, the prospect(s) of both United and/or US Airways at some point converting their Chapter 11 reorganizations into Chapter 7 liquidations.

Personally, I'd hate to see UAL amd U get liquidated since that would impact the lives of many people, but, that said, the rank-and-file UAL and U folks are not responsible for the miscues that their respective managements have made over the years, and thus the situation(s) they're now in.

It's been widely reported time and time again that 100-150 cities lobby SWA to start service each year. Not only have concerns on the overall economy put the brakes on most of these additional cities as prospective SWA destinations, but so too have UAL and U's situations.

Should UAL and/or U fail, and shut down, there'd be four major airports (not currently served by SWA) that could be easy targets for new service, namely DEN, PIT, CLT, and PHL.

DEN. SWA pulled out of the old DEN Stapleton back in the 1980s due to Stapleton's propensity for major ATC delays when even minor cloud ceilings and/or reduced visibilities occurred. The new DEN airport solved these operational problems by spacing the various runways further apart. Service to DEN would fill-in the gap between SWA's east and west route systems, and about the only downside to DEN would be the high costs (landing fees and leases) DEN has to pay off the airport.

Out of the three US Airways hub airports, I think the order of service priority would probably be CLT, PIT, and then PHL. SWA still likes to go into airports with minimal ATC delays, and PHL gets alot, being so close to the NYC area. PIT and CLT are (were) much more dependent on US Airway's hubs there, and ATC problems at both are minimal. Many other airlines already serve PHL, and I think it could survive the loss of UAL/U services better PIT and CLT could.

Another factor in all this is what American, Delta, Continental, and Northwest would do in the event of UAL/U shutting down. All four airlines have aircraft parked in the desert, and crews laid off, so theoretically, they could all spool-up pretty quickly and add servive where needed.

The final factor in all this is what (if anything) will occur on the terrorism front. If there is another attack (especially if it involves aircraft ala' the attempted missle shootdown of the Israeli 757 over Thanksgiving), nobody is going to be expanding, and alot more airlines than UAL and U are going to be in big trouble.

Watch the next 3-6 months.....

[FlyingTexan]

Any plans for MORE expansions for Southwest??

quote:

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Originally posted by Southwest737:
They used to do service to San Francsico but ceased operations. Wonder if they will restart that service soon?

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I believe the axing of SFO was FOG delay related. WN most likely will not return to SFO as the fog is staying for the long haul.

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Southwest Airlines Consolidates Northern California Flights

SAN FRANCISCO, Jan. 22, 2001 /PRNewswire/ -- Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV) announced today that it will cease flight operations at San Francisco International Airport on March 5, 2001 and will relocate most of its San Francisco operations to Oakland, San Jose, and Sacramento on that date.

Southwest currently has 14 departures per day from San Francisco International Airport and, beginning March 5, 2001, eight of those will be shifted to Oakland International Airport and two to Sacramento International Airport. Orange County, Salt Lake City, and Las Vegas will also each receive one additional daily departure as a result of Southwest's cessation of San Francisco International Airport service.

Herbert D. Kelleher, chairman of Southwest, stated: "We are discontinuing service to San Francisco International Airport on March 5, 2001 for compelling business reasons. Our relatively small (14 out of 2700 daily flights) San Francisco International Airport operation has not been profitable for a considerable period of time; operation into and out of that airport produces a disproportionate number of flight delays rippling across our system; and the aircraft capacity devoted to San Francisco service is needed to satisfy passenger demand, primarily at our other rapidly growing California airports."

In its 30-year history, Southwest Airlines has only discontinued operations at three other airports: Detroit City Airport in 1993; Denver's Stapleton International Airport in 1986; and Beaumont/Port Arthur in 1980.
www.southwest.com
SOURCE Southwest Airlines

[OPNLguy]

Any plans for MORE expansions for Southwest??

SWA's decision to cease ops at SFO wasn't "fog" related exactly...

The problem was (and still is) that SFO's runways (primarily 28L and 28R) are too close together to use under all conditions.

During a clear day, aircraft shoot "visual" approaches to both 28L and 28R, and under these conditions (both runways taking simultaneous arrivals) the airport has an acceptance rate (AAR) of about 60 an hour. Once the ceiling gets lower than about 2,600' off the ground, and/or visibility gets down to 6 miles or less, visual approaches can no longer be conducted. That's when they go to full ILS approaches. Both 28L and 28R have ILS installations, but for simultaneous use, the runway centerlines must be at least 4,300 feet apart. At SFO, 28L and 28R are only about 700 feet apart, so it's not even close to being enough.

The effect of SFO losing visual approaches is that the AAR drops from 60 an hour to 30. If that change occurs suddenly, while there are 30-60 aircraft within 1 hour of landing at SFO, many of those 31-60 will go into holding patterns until it's their turn to land. Other traffic that has yet to depart for SFO will be delayed in taking off, sort of the same principle as a metered freeway onramp, not being accepted into the ATC system until there's room for them.

Of course, all of this causes big delays, and depending upon when the loss of visual approaches occurs (morning, eveingings, etc.) the delays can run all day, and cascade into an airline's entire route system (holding for connections elsewhere, etc.).

The trigger for all this is that 2,600 foot cloud ceiling and 6 miles visibility (which can easily occur without an iota of fog). That same ceiling at OAK, SJC, or many other airports wouldn't cause any delays at all. The old DEN Stapleton airport had the same problem (35R and 35L too close together), and the resultant ATC delays caused SWA to bail there as well. STL also suffers from parallel runways (12R and 12L) that are too closely spaced, but the delays there have been mitigated in recent years by use of LDA approaches (not possible at SFO), and will further be mitigated by new PRM approaches that are being evaluated in a test at MSP, and elsewhere.

So, it's not fog itself, just the loss of visual approaches...

Cheers...

[mirrodie]

Any plans for MORE expansions for Southwest??

In response to the question, how long was PVD-ISP. 19 miuntes from wheels up to wheels down. I would never take the ferry if given the option!

I posted a trip report about it elsewhere. Contact me if you want to read it. it was a pretty awesome flight.

[Canyon Blue]

Any plans for MORE expansions for Southwest??

Just to add my bit on the SFO deal.....the majority of those flights were running our usual multiple stop cross country service...so the delays were cascadeing thoughout the system. As for any new cities.....At first I thought Jim and Colleen were just blowing smoke,but I really don't see any new cities opening up anytime soon. Of the cities that would get the service (ABE,COS,&RIC) if SWA was to start service in ABE or COS more than likely we would cause USAirways and United a world of hurt. SWA does not like to do that. I see more long haul stuff out of BWI,OAK,LAX,SJC,FLL,&MCO being worked into the schedule as the BWI-LAX service has been sucessful beyond the company dreams. Also while they are young aircraft we may also see the retirement of the -500s,because once the -200s are gone they will be the odd aircraft out (only 25,seats 122 instead of the 137 on the -300/-700 fleets). In the long distance future..maybe service to Canada,Mexico,Alaska,Hawaii(rumor has it we have done proving runs with the -700s),Caribeaan. If Boeing does decide to build the 737-700ER we may (keyword:MAY!) see european services.....but management will not start running a trip unless they are certin there is a market for it. Just my take! [img]images/smiles/icon_wink.gif[/img]

[Southwest737]

Any plans for MORE expansions for Southwest??

quote:

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Originally posted by Canyon Blue:
In the long distance future..maybe service to Canada,Mexico,Alaska,Hawaii(rumor has it we have done proving runs with the -700s),Caribeaan. If Boeing does decide to build the 737-700ER we may (keyword:MAY!) see european services.....but management will not start running a trip unless they are certin there is a market for it. Just my take! [img]images/smiles/icon_wink.gif[/img]

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Now, I know you said long run, but assuming you are talking about SWA, are you saying they may actually even consider flying to eruope and mexico, and canada? This does sound good-where did you here this rumor? This news does sound exciting, I realize you have nothing to proev but anything helps. Please update me more on this.

[Canyon Blue]

Any plans for MORE expansions for Southwest??

I can totally see SW heading into Canada and Mexico in the next 3-4 years....depending on the economy. The state of Texas is a big destination for the Mexican folks.....and let's face it....we OWN Texas. As for int'l ops.....from what I hear the 700ER that Boeing is working on will have a endurance of 12-14 hours which would give us sufficent range to make London-Luton,Paris-Orly and other secondary airports in Europe. However the downside of this would be the ETOPS qualifications. Either SWA would keep dedicated aircraft on the int'l runs(not likely....the ablity to swap airplanes on short notice would be gone) or keeping gthe entire fleet ETOPS certified (very expensive,just ask Aloha). I have to say SWA has a lot of places to expand to in the future......It's gonna be a lot of fun watching it happen!

[FlyingTexan]

Any plans for MORE expansions for Southwest??

quote:

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Originally posted by OPNLguy:


So, it's not fog itself, just the loss of visual approaches...

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Bravo! Well put, OPNLguy!!! Thank you...I recall this from somewhere - cease of SFO service having something to do with the air field and OSO - but decided to reduce it to FOG!

[OPNLguy]

Any plans for MORE expansions for Southwest??

>>>if SWA was to start service in ABE or COS more than likely we would cause USAirways and United a world of hurt.

With all due respect, I'd submit that both U and UAL are each already in a major world of hurt, and SWA's possibly starting service into ABE or COS wouldn't change that a bit.

U's DIP lender is threatening to Chapter 7 the place if employees don't come up with another $200M in additional employee concessions by 12/20 (this Friday). The pilots have come up with $100M in the last couple of days, and everyone else has until Friday, supposedly.

UAL is bleeding $22M a day, and will probably petition the court next week to toss all the labor contracts if agreements can't be worked out this weekend. After Jan. 1st, they estimate the cash burn rate will "slow" to only $10-$15M a day, but in any event, the targets UAL must meet for their own DIP financing will be hard to meet.

If the shooting starts in Iraqi, the resulting spike in oil prices might pull the plug(s) U and UAL that much quicker.

Now, SWA possibly starting ABE and COS seems trivial in comparison, no?

[SWA733Captain]

Any plans for MORE expansions for Southwest??

quote:

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Originally posted by OPNLguy:
>>>if SWA was to start service in ABE or COS more than likely we would cause USAirways and United a world of hurt.

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It is highly likely that Southwest will soon begin service to COS, COS built a whole new terminal just to attract Southwest, another reason for Southwest to go to COS is to compete with the new United Shuttle aimed to directly impact Southwest on the west coast. Check http://www.ifly737.com/ The post daily news from around the world of Southwest Airlines everywhere from new aircraft to new destinations to this date in history is really useful to us Southwest fanatics.

[OPNLguy]

Any plans for MORE expansions for Southwest??

I believe that new terminal at COS was constructed for Western Pacific, wasn't it?

SWA management has repeatedly said "nyet" to COS, and given the poor health of both U and UAL, I think the expansion opportunities are eastward (CLT, PIT, PHL, SWF, RIC) versus westward...

BTW, I looked at that www.ifly737.com site and only found a mention of a new runway at CLE. Was there something there on COS?

[OPNLguy]

Any plans for MORE expansions for Southwest??

>>>(rumor has it we have done proving runs with the -700s)

Well, like they say at Hertz, "Not Exactly"....

SWA has never done any proving runs with 737-700s for California-Hawaii service. Period.

That said, just before Aloha started service, Boeing ran a couple of test flights on Aloha's behalf using a SWA -700. The aircraft involved had yet to be delivered to SWA, and still belonged to Boeing. That's where this rumor started, since the bird was in SWA's colors.

With 100-150 cities asking for service each year, I think there's still plenty of domestic expansion opportunities remaining, and those will occur long before SWA ever heads for Hawaii, Canada, or Mexico, let alone Europe.

Where did you hear about a -700ER? A -700 will only hold so much fuel, and reworking it to be capable of 10+ hours of endurance would make it a completely new aircraft. Taking a -900 and equipping them with extra fuel tanks (aft cargo bin) might be a possibility, but a better operational option would be some 757s. National has about 30 of them parked, and they'd be cheap...

A moot point, in that we'll be staying within the US borders for a good while, methinks...

[FlyingTexan]

Any plans for MORE expansions for Southwest??

quote:

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Originally posted by OPNLguy:
Well, like they say at Hertz, "Not Exactly"....

SWA has never done any proving runs with 737-700s for California-Hawaii service. Period.
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A moot point, in that we'll be staying within the US borders for a good while, methinks...

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THANK YOU!