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Smolensk 2010 crash - new technical report

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  • #61
    Originally posted by Northwester View Post
    [ATTACH=CONFIG]15505[/ATTACH]

    At 6:26:19 Krasnokutsky says to ATC: Pasha, bring him to 100 meters. 100 meters. No discussion, shit, ...

    Krasnokutsky is the commanding officer from Tver.
    Did you purposely forget to translate the top part, where it says it was the Captain's decision to go to the MDA? Krasnokutsky seems incredulous (he knows what the weather is like), which is why he gives the order to "bring him down to one hundred meters" (the implication being 100 meters and no further) followed by "shit, end of discussion".

    Context is imporant, as you yourself pointed out.

    Comment


    • #62
      Nice try, Northwestern. Taking a sentence out of the context, and assigning to it a meaning that fits your argument.

      Would you please translate let's say the minute or so that preceded this sentence?

      That is EXACTLY what I was talking about and why this report is bullshit.

      --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
      --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

      Comment


      • #63
        Originally posted by ATLcrew View Post
        Did you purposely forget to translate the top part, where it says it was the Captain's decision to go to the MDA? Krasnokutsky seems incredulous (he knows what the weather is like), which is why he gives the order to "bring him down to one hundred meters" (the implication being 100 meters and no further) followed by "shit, end of discussion".

        Context is imporant, as you yourself pointed out.
        You are so biased, you don't even see you are contradicting yourself. Few lines before the Captain asks that if it's ok, they will try an approach, and if no conditions they will go around. Then he asks for permission for further descent. At any point the ATC can redirect the plane to an alternate. Only then Krasnokutsky informs the ATC about Captain's intent, and orders him to bring the plane to 100 meters.

        And if you run out of arguments, you can always use the last one: "this is bullshit".

        Comment


        • #64
          Originally posted by Northwester View Post
          You are so biased, you don't even see you are contradicting yourself...
          Riiiight....

          Comment


          • #65
            Ok, so since Northwester is reluctant, this is what I found. I will let you decide if ATC was intentionally guiding Polish 101 to its doom.
            This is the conversation between the Captain and ATC, except in the one line where noted differently:

            Korsaż-Start, Polish 101, good morning.

            Polish 1-0-1 Korsaż answered.

            For outer marker, lower altitude 3600 meters.

            Polish Foxtrot 1-0-1, remaining fuel, how much fuel do you have?

            11 tonnes remaining.

            What backup airport do you have designated?

            Witebsk, Mińsk.

            Witebsk, Mińsk, correct?

            You read correctly.

            PLF 1-2-0-1, at Korsaż fog, visibility 400 meters

            Understood, please give me meteo.

            At Korsaż fog, visibility 400 meters, 4-0-0 meters.

            Temperature and pressure, please.

            Temperature plus 2, pressure 7-45, 7-4-5, there are no conditions for landing.

            Thank you, but if we can, we would like to try approach, but if not , there will be no weather, we will leave for a go around.

            After the trial approach will you have enough fuel to fly to backup?

            Enough

            Understood

            Asking for permission for further descend.

            1-0-1, on course 40 degrees, descend 1500

            1500 on course 40 degrees.

            [ATC second commander internal conversation]: Paweł, You will guide to 100 meters. 100 meters. No discussion... and..., so what about that alternate? Hurry.

            Korsaż, Polish 101, maintaining 1500.

            Aaa... Polish 1 -0-1, pressure 7-4-5, descend 500

            Pressure 7 -4-5, descending, 500 meters, Polish 101

            Polish 1 -0 -1, course 79.

            Course 79, Polish 101.

            PLF 1-0-1, Korsaż here.

            Answering.

            Are you on 500 meters?

            Not yet. 1000, descending.

            Understood.

            PLF 1-0-1, altitude 500?

            Approaching 500 meters.

            Understood.

            PLF 4-0-1 are you on 500?

            We are on 500 meters.

            500 meters. Have you landed on military airports before?

            Yes of course.

            Lights on the left, on right, for front of the runway.

            Understood.

            1-0-1 perform third, radial 19

            We are making third, Polish 101.

            Polish 101 from 100 meters be prepared to go for a second go around.

            Aye aye, sir
            At the same time, this other conversation was taking place in a second radio between the first officer of Polish 101 and a Polish pilot that had already landed.

            [The pilot that had already landed] Guys, Rafał here, change to 123,45.

            [First officer] Artur, I am here

            Hi, welcome. Generally speaking it is a bitch down here. Visibility about 400 meters and in our opinion (clouds) are well below 50 meters. [Note: that was well below the instument minimums for the approach]

            Have you landed yet?

            Well, yes we managed in the last moment. Honestly, you can try by all means. Two APMs are there, they set a gate, so you can try, but… If you will not be able to make it the second time, then I suggest you fly to Moscow for example or somewhere.

            OK, I get it over to Arek [Alek is the captain], bye.

            [Now the FO talks with the cpatain]

            Areczku... And Artur is saying that in their opinion there is around 400, visible 50 meters base.

            How much?

            400 meters visibility 50 meters base.

            But he landed. What is he saying?

            Yes, they made it. He said only that if we don't land the second time, than - he is saying, to Moscow.
            [Immediately after, we have this]

            [Captain] Mr. director - fog came out, right now in these conditions, that we have at present we will not be able to land. We will try to approach, we will make one pass, but probably nothing will come out of it. So please think about decision on what we will do. We do not have enough fuel to hang around.

            [Director Kazana]: So, we have a problem..

            [Captain]: We can hang/stay up for half an hour an fly to backup.

            What backup?

            Mińsk or Witebsk.

            Is there anything else?
            [Then we have a conversation again between the fliught crew and the landed pilot]

            Artur, are you still there?

            I am here, Remek

            Remuś, ask Artur, and maybe you know, are these clouds thick?

            About 400-500 meters

            Did you hear it Arek? About 400, 500 meters

            But the thickness of these clouds, 400, 500 meters?

            As far as we can remember, at 500 meters we were still above the clouds.

            Aha. At 500 meters above the clouds. OK, OK. Thanks.

            Have Russians arrived yet?

            IL went around twice, and I think they left somewhere.

            [Second officer to the captain]

            Did you hear?

            Yes.
            [Minutes later]

            10:40:01 [Navigator] 400 meters
            10:40:09 [TAWS] TERRAIN AHEAD
            10:40:23 [Navigator] 300
            10:40:26 [First Officer] 250 meters
            10:40:35 [Navigator] 200
            10:40:45 [TAWS] TERRAIN AHEAD
            10:40:40 [Navigator] 150
            10:40:42 [TAWS] TERRAIN AHEAD
            10:40:43 [TAWS] TERRAIN AHEAD
            10:40:44 [First Officer] 100
            10:40:45 [TAWS] PULL UP, PULL UP [continuing to 10:40:48]
            10:40:49 [TAWS] TERRAIN AHEAD
            10:40:51 [Navigator] 100
            10:40:51 [Captain] Go around
            10:40:52 [Navigator] 90, 80
            10:40:52 [TAWS] PULL UP, PULL UP [Continues until end of recording]
            10:40:53 [First officer] Go around
            10:40:53 [Navigator] 70, 60, 50, 40, 30, 20 [until 10:40:58]
            10:40:55 [ATC] Level 101
            10:40:57 [ATC] Control altitude, level
            10:41:03 [First officer] Fuck
            10:41:04 [ATC] Go around
            10:41:05 [Scream]

            --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
            --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

            Comment


            • #66
              What I see here, and this is only my opinion, is the intent from the Captain to descend to MDA and leave if there are no conditions for landing. He asks ATC twice for permission, first to do the trial approach, second, to continue the descent. Krasnokutsky, who has no place at the ATC, orders ATC to bring the plane to 100 meters. Why is this critical? This is a military airfield, and the flight is classified as military. The ATC can order the plane to go to an alternate airport at any time. He doesn't do it because he is told not to do it. Yes, it required an intent from the Captain to descend to 100m, but considering the importance of the visit, the chance of the Captain not checking the weather conditions first hand was very small. But again, the ATC had the power to send the plane away before it descended to 100m, and was ordered not to do it.

              Comment


              • #67
                Originally posted by Northwester View Post
                What I see here, and this is only my opinion, is the intent from the Captain to descend to MDA and leave if there are no conditions for landing. He asks ATC twice for permission, first to do the trial approach, second, to continue the descent. Krasnokutsky, who has no place at the ATC, orders ATC to bring the plane to 100 meters. Why is this critical? This is a military airfield, and the flight is classified as military. The ATC can order the plane to go to an alternate airport at any time. He doesn't do it because he is told not to do it. Yes, it required an intent from the Captain to descend to 100m, but considering the importance of the visit, the chance of the Captain not checking the weather conditions first hand was very small. But again, the ATC had the power to send the plane away before it descended to 100m, and was ordered not to do it.
                Riiiight....
                As I said, the data is there and people can judge by themselves.

                --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
                --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

                Comment


                • #68
                  Originally posted by Northwester View Post
                  But again, the ATC had the power to send the plane away before it descended to 100m, and was ordered not to do it.
                  But he was also ordered to try, repeatedly, to convince the crew that there were no conditions for landing and to be assured that they would still have enough fuel to alternate when they abandoned the approach at 100m?

                  Crafty Russians!

                  So now I'm very excited to see this conversation where Russian ATC is ordered to 'order' the flight to try the approach while at the same time trying to convince them not to. Why haven't you posted that yet? You are usually so good at providing evidence before reaching a conclusion...

                  Comment


                  • #69
                    Originally posted by Northwester View Post
                    What I see here, and this is only my opinion, is the intent from the Captain to descend to MDA and leave if there are no conditions for landing. He asks ATC twice for permission, first to do the trial approach, second, to continue the descent. Krasnokutsky, who has no place at the ATC, orders ATC to bring the plane to 100 meters. Why is this critical? This is a military airfield, and the flight is classified as military. The ATC can order the plane to go to an alternate airport at any time. He doesn't do it because he is told not to do it. Yes, it required an intent from the Captain to descend to 100m, but considering the importance of the visit, the chance of the Captain not checking the weather conditions first hand was very small. But again, the ATC had the power to send the plane away before it descended to 100m, and was ordered not to do it.
                    If you don't mind my asking, whatever happened to the Captain's power to go to the alternate without even trying any of these shenanigans? Why was he waiting for ATC to "order" him to do so?

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      Originally posted by ATLcrew View Post
                      If you don't mind my asking, whatever happened to the Captain's power to go to the alternate without even trying any of these shenanigans? Why was he waiting for ATC to "order" him to do so?
                      Of course he didn't have to wait for ATC to order him to go around. But because the previous plane landed, the weather was changing, and the visit was important, he decided to check the conditions himself. Normal procedure. But that does not change the fact that if the ATC told him to go to an alternate at 500, he would have done it. ATC was told to bring him to 100m.

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        Originally posted by Evan View Post
                        But he was also ordered to try, repeatedly, to convince the crew that there were no conditions for landing and to be assured that they would still have enough fuel to alternate when they abandoned the approach at 100m?

                        Crafty Russians!

                        So now I'm very excited to see this conversation where Russian ATC is ordered to 'order' the flight to try the approach while at the same time trying to convince them not to. Why haven't you posted that yet? You are usually so good at providing evidence before reaching a conclusion...
                        Let's assume for a moment that after reading the report you came to your senses and realized that all that evidence of explosions is convincing. So there is a conspiracy to bring the plane down and kill a lot of people including the president. How many people would have a full knowledge of such a plot? Most likely very few, and some others would be given only instructions to do what is necessary from their side. ATC didn't have to know what will happen to the plane, they just had to guide it to certain altitude. That's why they talked about alternates and amount of fuel. All the military securing the area of the crash hours before the plane even started, didn't have to know anything.

                        And btw, maintaining that the Russians didn't have the know-how, means, capacity, technology, or motivation to do it, is rather naïve.

                        Comment


                        • #72
                          Originally posted by Northwester View Post
                          ATC was told to bring him to 100m.
                          If ATC was told to do anything at all, they were told to halt him at 100m. Otherwise, why would 100m even be mentioned? And that they did with great reluctance.

                          Let's assume for a moment that after reading the report you came to your senses...
                          Well, as I've stated repeatedly (and you have produced nothing to address) one sense that immediately intervened was logic. There is no logical motive for attempting this without the assurance of an investigation-proof cover up. Inciting war with Poland would be illogical. Doing such a thing in a way that leaves explosive residues, a final report full of obvious holes and a trial of conspiracy-baiting evidence just waiting to be revealed by the crackpot academics and Northwesters of the world would also be illogical. There is, in fact, nothing in what you are proposing that conforms to logic. If you came to your senses, you would realize it doesn't make sense.

                          But this is how grand-conspiracy theorists fall victim to their own nonsense, by ignoring the larger picture, the overall logic, or, as my drawing teacher used to preach, "step back from your work so that you can see it in context".

                          I have not the faintest belief that you are onto something here, but you fascinate me as a specimen of the blind, biased, partial and impenetrable conviction that drives conspiracy theory. That is, assuming you are over the age of 10.

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            So following your logic, if you come across a crime scene, a dead body in front of you, the first thing you do is look for motives? You don't investigate the crime scene, you don't check if the person was killed, had heart attack, or fell from the roof, but the first thing you do is look for the reasons? There is enough evidence from the crime scene in Smolensk to check the conspiracy option. And btw, there is no war between Russia and Holland, there is no war between Russia and Great Brittan. Such events end up in denials and mutual accusations, but not wars, not in the nuclear age.

                            Nice getting personal, Evan. I appreciate your class.

                            Comment


                            • #74
                              Originally posted by Northwester View Post
                              ... the previous plane landed...
                              Again, picking, choosing what to take into account, what to discard, what to ignore, and from that you pick, how to interpret it to better fit your agenda.

                              The previous plane did not land. The Polish pilot that had landed earlier informed the Polish 101 crew that he landed in the last minute, that the conditions were a bitch there, that the visibility was about 400 meters, that the ceiling was less than 50 ft, and that the previous plane (the IL) had gone around twice and apparently had diverted.

                              --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
                              --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                Originally posted by Northwester View Post
                                So following your logic, if you come across a crime scene, a dead body in front of you, the first thing you do is look for motives? You don't investigate the crime scene, you don't check if the person was killed, had heart attack, or fell from the roof, but the first thing you do is look for the reasons?
                                If I see a dead body on the sidewalk, look up and realize that there is a window open in the 10th floor, find out that that window is in an apartment that belongs to said individual, I will have a hard time believing that somebody shot him dead when he was 5 meters AGL.

                                --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
                                --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

                                Comment

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