Stretch routes?

[guamainiac]

The thread on the stretch 747 and other threads about the South American routes (new Pan Am and Jet Blue), started me wondering about the future of the craft and the airways.

What will things be like in 20 years? We tend to think of the traditional routes with the economic powers as "hubs" but with the US economy headed for the tank and fast, how will this affect these newly emergent routes? Will the SA trade dry up?

Will there be a need for "bigger/better such as the 380 and where will they go?

I follow some auto interests and see changes there with Tata of India, China buying Volvo and some old stock Saab. Change that would have been sacrilege or heresy a scant decade ago.

I would like to predict a shift back. We can't afford Hyundai in the long run since they seem to (talking to some owners), cost more over time. Who can afford them (just one example) ... what's in your crystal ball?

[HalcyonDays]

The US will remain economically powerful for the next 50 years with continuation of many important airline route hubs and networks. The "melting pot" and further immigration will mean large numbers of travelers both ways to all parts of the world, but especially to/from South/Latin America and the major Asian nations.

[Curtis Malone]

One thing is for certain: forums such as this one will be around forever.

[Peter Kesternich]

(...)with the US economy headed for the tank and fast, (...)

Well - all economies have a tendency to recover sooner or later.

The US will remain economically powerful for the next 50 years with continuation of many important airline route hubs and networks. (...)

Exactly... See above...

One thing is for certain: forums such as this one will be around forever.

... along with large numbers of knowledgable and not-so-knowledgable contributors... *lol...

[guamainiac]

I'm glad to see that there are more optimists. I guess that since a good part of my last job was turning out lights in American factories I have become a bit of a cynic. I just don't have a feel for anything, the engine to pull us along. No silicon or chip industry or such, there, but out of my vision.

They say that there is great fear awaiting the results of the census and that an extraordinary effort was made (in order not to loose representation in Congress), to "get out the numbers" since there has been a well know trend for folks to return (legal or illegal), headed home.

With cities shrinking the commerce and travel may decline? Hence my comment on routes in flux.

[Luka]

I'm glad to see that there are more optimists. I guess that since a good part of my last job was turning out lights in American factories I have become a bit of a cynic. I just don't have a feel for anything, the engine to pull us along. No silicon or chip industry or such, there, but out of my vision.

They say that there is great fear awaiting the results of the census and that an extraordinary effort was made (in order not to loose representation in Congress), to "get out the numbers" since there has been a well know trend for folks to return (legal or illegal), headed home.

With cities shrinking the commerce and travel may decline? Hence my comment on routes in flux.

- I think your cynicism is justified. Jobs and industries that traditionally have employed Americans and contributed to the economy are all moving off-shore. Plenty of 2nd world countries can do the "factory" work for far less...Those domestic companies who move off-shore quite often eventually sell up to a business in the area or are taken over. The economy of ALL 1st world countries are in a state of evolution (flux in some areas) - The transition period ALWAYS hurts. What will WE do? We have decided to become the "SMART" countries, producing tertiary products, playing to the strengths of 1st world countries....education. But.....are we doing this? We have a skills shortage in Australia right now, and the short term answer is to "import" the skills! The medium and long term strategy would be to create centres of learning aimed at the high end of education and product creation...We are being very slow on this i'm afraid. Plus we are raising the next generation to beleive that hard work is for poor, stupid fools...only cool, smart people do the high end jobs and get paid a packet for it! But do they realise they must start from the bottom? NO. So the next CEO is from elsewhere in the country or even another country altogether.....Pathetic people!
There are a number of industries which will stay 1st world, but not nearly enough to employ the majority of citizens....Add to this the soon to come influx of robots...yes, robots! And even 2nd and 3rd world countries will be facing this problem. Whats the answer? Ask Gene Roddenberry.

[AA 1818]

The thread on the stretch 747 and other threads about the South American routes (new Pan Am and Jet Blue), started me wondering about the future of the craft and the airways. What will things be like in 20 years? We tend to think of the traditional routes with the economic powers as "hubs" but with the US economy headed for the tank and fast, how will this affect these newly emergent routes? Will the SA trade dry up?

I do not believe that the South American trade will every truly evaporate. It is likely that we will see it shift in sectors. South America has been plagued (for decades) by relitavely weak players for airlines. We had Varig for quite some time, but even the mighty Varig did not do a very good job of catering to the flying population of Brazil. As we see stronger, and perhaps more efficent carriers (with the trend of state-run carriers now strongly loosing favor and prominence) we are seeing many of these airlines refocus themselves along the lines of economic advantage, not so much the 'glory routes' that the state governments often pursued.

I cannot speak wholly on the topic, but I can say that carriers such as TAM, and Avianca are now doing greater jobs of catering to their markets. For the future I see them being, perhaps, the first choice of their locals to travel long-haul to Europe and perhaps to key ports in the U.S./Canada. That said, U.S. and Canadian carriers will likely always keep their crucial links to those local markets and be able to dominate or at least remain strong players in the Intra-American flights. The U.S. carriers (through hubs) will always be able to offer fantastic flight options that can connect passengers to other major cities in North America, something that South American carriers cannot yet do.

Touching on another part of the world though, we (within the past 20 years) have seen other hubs open up that have hurt/challenged/curtailed the growth/prominence of 'American' hubs. Dubai and Singapore being prime examples. With state run/funded carriers and massive infrastructure to support impressive dreams, we have already seen a major shift in how the industry works. Seriously speaking, would you rather connect via ORD or DXB on your way to India? For many, it's a no brainer, considering how and when one can enjoy their flight with EK.

Will there be a need for "bigger/better such as the 380 and where will they go?

Adding to the point above, we can see the A380 used as it was originally intended. It's not going to support 800+ passengers, but likely to give you the range and the capacity of the 744, but with greater support and space for amenities. EK is not going to be making their money with all their passengers in coach. It's likely to attract alot of passengers with its ability to offer passengers greater comfort in business and first classes, and unlike many of its competitors - it can boast amenities that many others can only think of.

Back to the Americas in general - I do not think that our geography/populations, is one that lends itself well to the applications of large aircraft. We often do not need the range of larger and/or ULH aircraft, and almost ecplicably, we react better to greater frequencies.