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  • European Union expansion?

    Personally I think Croatia is the next member, as for next country joining the €uro I think Estonia is next.
    Cape Verde Islands would be interesting if they joined, I think Moldavia would be possible also with Romania already a member(most Moldavians are able to get a Romanian passport anyway). Iceland could also be a member, but I doubt they can get the €uro.
    "The real CEO of the 787 project is named Potemkin"

  • #2
    Personally I think the last thing the EU are interested in at the moment is further expansion. The only exception may be Iceland, due to its total financial implosion, and the absorption of such a small economy would be easy. Otherwise, we are beginning to see the euro falling apart and a new division between western and eastern Europe, this time not a defense or political division but one between the anemic economies in the west and the collapsing economies in the east. Moldova ? You must be joking - even in good times they've never been remotely likely this side of 2050. The EU is a victim of its own over-optimistic propaganda, and most people in the EU have wised up.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by HalcyonDays View Post
      Personally I think the last thing the EU are interested in at the moment is further expansion. The only exception may be Iceland, due to its total financial implosion, and the absorption of such a small economy would be easy. Otherwise, we are beginning to see the euro falling apart and a new division between western and eastern Europe, this time not a defense or political division but one between the anemic economies in the west and the collapsing economies in the east. Moldova ? You must be joking - even in good times they've never been remotely likely this side of 2050. The EU is a victim of its own over-optimistic propaganda, and most people in the EU have wised up.
      Euro falling apart, none of the countries that joined has left. Thereīs always divisions between countries. Moldavia is a small country where the majority of the population are entitled to Romanian passport, so no joke. Of course EU is interested in new expansion, but the terms are more strict nowadays.
      "The real CEO of the 787 project is named Potemkin"

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Alessandro View Post
        Euro falling apart, none of the countries that joined has left. Thereīs always divisions between countries. Moldavia is a small country where the majority of the population are entitled to Romanian passport, so no joke. Of course EU is interested in new expansion, but the terms are more strict nowadays.
        Well, the euro has caused predicted and predictable strains and tensions in Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Italy. The euro has directly worsened the problems of these countries. It's obvious that these countries would be in a better situation if they weren't in the euro. I don't think there's a country in Europe which actually likes the euro, even though I admit many countries see it as a kind a financial insurance measure in the current environment.

        The history of the EU shows that it uses a crisis to strengthen European central authority. But the trouble with this is diminishing returns - it will only get you so far, and if the current recession continues in Europe (and as bad as it is in the US, it's worse in most of Europe), there will be a public backlash. In and of itself, such a backlash won't ruin the European project, but the economic crisis is going to mean that the EU will have to halt further expansion for the time being because of its preoccupation with having to keep the ship on an even keel. "Sauve qui peut", as the French would say.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by HalcyonDays View Post
          Well, the euro has caused predicted and predictable strains and tensions in Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Italy. The euro has directly worsened the problems of these countries. It's obvious that these countries would be in a better situation if they weren't in the euro. I don't think there's a country in Europe which actually likes the euro, even though I admit many countries see it as a kind a financial insurance measure in the current environment.

          The history of the EU shows that it uses a crisis to strengthen European central authority. But the trouble with this is diminishing returns - it will only get you so far, and if the current recession continues in Europe (and as bad as it is in the US, it's worse in most of Europe), there will be a public backlash. In and of itself, such a backlash won't ruin the European project, but the economic crisis is going to mean that the EU will have to halt further expansion for the time being because of its preoccupation with having to keep the ship on an even keel. "Sauve qui peut", as the French would say.
          Well, I donīt share your opinion that the US is such better shape economically than EU,
          contrary Iīm convinced that the spiral downwards will speed up for the US. I donīt understand how the Pesetas, Escudos, Punt, Drachmer and Lira would be a better alternative, more like the Swedish and Icelandic crown if you ask me.
          "The real CEO of the 787 project is named Potemkin"

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Alessandro View Post
            Well, I donīt share your opinion that the US is such better shape economically than EU,
            contrary Iīm convinced that the spiral downwards will speed up for the US. I donīt understand how the Pesetas, Escudos, Punt, Drachmer and Lira would be a better alternative, more like the Swedish and Icelandic crown if you ask me.
            Well, you and I have always disagreed about the EU, so let's leave it there.

            Look, the whole world economy is imploding. No-one is buying anything. There is a collapse in demand everywhere, in both goods and services, the flipside of which is that there is too much overcapacity everywhere. We can nickel and dime it to see who is suffering the most. Still, I do think the Europeans are still in denial. If you look at the amount of money as a proportion of GDP being spent on bank and other company bailouts, it's less in the US than in Europe as a whole. Budget deficits and national debt levels tend to be higher in Europe than in the US as a proportion to the size of economies. US exports, surprisingly perhaps, are holding up fairly well, compared with Germany, supposedly the great export machine.

            Longer term, ie. 5-20 years, the US has almost impossible problems, with funding its debt and with the endless rise in entitlement spending, which will mean all Americans will suffer a declining standard of living. Future hyper-inflation is the only way the US will be able to reduce this debt, so sound money is out of the window (same thing in Europe too, by the way). You never know though : American society still remains dynamic and inventive. A small variation in economic growth, ie. 1% per year either way for 15 years, can make a huge difference. A 1% increase in growth over forecast trend over the next 15 years doesn't sound much but could be enough almost to pay off the national debt. A 1% decrease under forecast trend would result in total collapse. It's a fine line. Have a nice day, or decade.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by HalcyonDays View Post
              Well, you and I have always disagreed about the EU, so let's leave it there.

              Look, the whole world economy is imploding. No-one is buying anything. There is a collapse in demand everywhere, in both goods and services, the flipside of which is that there is too much overcapacity everywhere. We can nickel and dime it to see who is suffering the most. Still, I do think the Europeans are still in denial. If you look at the amount of money as a proportion of GDP being spent on bank and other company bailouts, it's less in the US than in Europe as a whole. Budget deficits and national debt levels tend to be higher in Europe than in the US as a proportion to the size of economies. US exports, surprisingly perhaps, are holding up fairly well, compared with Germany, supposedly the great export machine.

              Longer term, ie. 5-20 years, the US has almost impossible problems, with funding its debt and with the endless rise in entitlement spending, which will mean all Americans will suffer a declining standard of living. Future hyper-inflation is the only way the US will be able to reduce this debt, so sound money is out of the window (same thing in Europe too, by the way). You never know though : American society still remains dynamic and inventive. A small variation in economic growth, ie. 1% per year either way for 15 years, can make a huge difference. A 1% increase in growth over forecast trend over the next 15 years doesn't sound much but could be enough almost to pay off the national debt. A 1% decrease under forecast trend would result in total collapse. It's a fine line. Have a nice day, or decade.
              Well, the problem in the US is complicated to say the least, crime is one problem, large numbers of soldiers are coming home and many of them are gangbangers with now even bigger skills in urban warfare. Another problem is the funds companies have to set up for
              their employees retirement, some companies seem to use them as unwisely as Mr Maxwell
              did with the fleetstreet funds.
              As for my backyard, yes, the Tijuana of Scandinavia (border towns to Norway) is very busy, people do a lot of shopping there with the weak Swedish crown.
              East europeans come to Sweden to buy 2nd hand cars, less expensive than in Germany.
              Iceland got loads of expensive cars in the dealership but the high tax on cars there make
              them too expensive to export to Europe. So some people benefit from weak currency, but
              in general I would prefer the €uro instead.
              "The real CEO of the 787 project is named Potemkin"

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Alessandro View Post
                Well, the problem in the US is complicated to say the least, crime is one problem..........
                OK, but you do know that all major classes of crime in the US have fallen around 25% or so from the peak levels of 15-20 years ago ? (There are of course major regional variations in the trends.)

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                • #9
                  OK, interesting. Since this is OT forum thread creep is allowed, is that reported crimes?
                  Things arenīt too merry where I live either, one guy chopped up by two teenager,
                  survived but only nearly died, helicopter with special police squad took the two, one murder 20 miles from where I live on new years eve, crashed out on drugs did it.
                  Burglary where guy fighting with hammer, got arrested a few weeks ago.
                  "The real CEO of the 787 project is named Potemkin"

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Alessandro View Post
                    OK, interesting. Since this is OT forum thread creep is allowed, is that reported crimes?
                    Yes. I mean, most reported crime statistics are reported, aren't they ? Of course, there are always unreported crimes, though for serious crimes, I don't think the unreported crime numbers are specially high, in any country. By the way, in the period the US crime rate has fallen since the early 1990s peak, the population has also risen by 50m or about 20%, so a further 'relative' reduction.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by HalcyonDays View Post
                      Yes. I mean, most reported crime statistics are reported, aren't they ? Of course, there are always unreported crimes, though for serious crimes, I don't think the unreported crime numbers are specially high, in any country. By the way, in the period the US crime rate has fallen since the early 1990s peak, the population has also risen by 50m or about 20%, so a further 'relative' reduction.
                      Here only property theft generally reported if the insurance company involved, very little faith in police will do anything.
                      "The real CEO of the 787 project is named Potemkin"

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                      • #12
                        As for drops in crime Im just saying most countries that made abortion legal have experienced a drop in crime about ~16-18 years after the law was passed, 1990 was 17 years after roe v wade.


                        Not drawing any conclusion from that though.
                        Sam Rudge
                        A 5D3, some Canon lenses, the Sigma L and a flash

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                        • #13
                          19th country to join the €uro is Lithuania at new years eve 2014....
                          "The real CEO of the 787 project is named Potemkin"

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                          • #14
                            At least they're not up to their eyeballs in debt and have low unemployment....unlike some countries who joined the union and have become a drain on the union.

                            One thing that I will always oppose here in the UK is adoption of the euro. Just about every country in Europe that took on the euro suffered an almost immediate increase in cost of living. We suffered similarly when we decimalised the pound, I don't want to have to go through that again.
                            If it 'ain't broken........ Don't try to mend it !

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                            • #15
                              Another country did decimal their currency at the same time and now are part of the €uro,
                              so its interesting how different path countries can choose...
                              "The real CEO of the 787 project is named Potemkin"

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