Ideas for TAM Airlines routes - what if it tried the following?

[Vincentomoh]

TAP-A343, do you have any ideas or theories regarding why JAL is continuing its flight routes through the USA? Is it that JAL gets premium pax on JFK-GRU AND JFK-NRT separately?

Also, regarding Angola, how easily can TAM get into the market? I have a feeling that Nigeria is easier to get into than Angola, but I'm not 100% positive.

That was exactly why the "old" RG dropped its GRU-LAX-NRT route when it was still flying to all its international destinations. Moreover, Brazilians need a visa to enter the US which is not the case in the EU countries.

Given the conservative attitude to expansion that TAM has shown so far, I could see TAP connecting Brazilian pax to the Far East earlier than TAM.

There are rumours that TAP is considering routes like LIS-BOM and LIS-PEK to connect Brazilian pax.



I doubt there's much demand for GRU-ICN, for sure almost none for LIS-ICN.

And I think Luanda, Angola would be a better destination for TAM than Lagos, Nigeria. I believe TAAG has a very successful route with LAD-GIG. There are many Brazilian oil related investments in Angola.

[Gugasounds]

TAM cant make the GRU-MEX-NRT, cause MEX is way too high for that type of operation. AeroMexico stops in Tijuana for flights to Tokyo and now Shangai.
TAM could do the same, GRU-TIJ-NRT, to coompete directly with AM.

[Vincentomoh]

If TAM gets NRT slots, perhaps it can do GRU-TIJ-NRT. Now, who would give TAM slots? ANA?

TAM could still try to get GRU-TIJ-KIX and/or GRU-TIJ-NGO. TAM has a lot of stopover cities to choose from even if it does not want to go through the USA.

If TAM chooses to use Tijuana it can advertise services to Brazil AND Japan to people living in San Diego; if the route happens they can go across the border and fly TAM to Sao Paulo or Japan.

After all, AeroMexico provides a shuttle from San Diego to Tijuana Airport: http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniont...b23flight.html

TAM cant make the GRU-MEX-NRT, cause MEX is way too high for that type of operation. AeroMexico stops in Tijuana for flights to Tokyo and now Shangai.
TAM could do the same, GRU-TIJ-NRT, to coompete directly with AM.

[TAP-A343]

TAP-A343, do you have any ideas or theories regarding why JAL is continuing its flight routes through the USA? Is it that JAL gets premium pax on JFK-GRU AND JFK-NRT separately?

My guess is that JAL targets Japanese and American pax that don't need a visa and wealthy Brazilians for whom getting an American visa is not an issue.

From what I've heard, most Brazilian pax heading for Japan or other Far Eastern destinations are connecting in Europe.

Also, regarding Angola, how easily can TAM get into the market? I have a feeling that Nigeria is easier to get into than Angola, but I'm not 100% positive.

It's all a question of politics in Angola. LAD (Luanda, Angola) is not exactly slot-restricted.

TAP was granted the rights to fly LIS-LAD daily only recently after a visit to Angola of the Portuguese Prime-Minister.

[uy707]

Yet LAD can be an excellent destination, probably more than LOS where the dominant oil companies are from the US and Europe.
Some other "exotic" calls which might be of interest include Maputo in Mozambique and above all Sao Tomé y Principe, where oil starts gushing out while Petrobras is among the top players

[PP-VRA]

Varig *ought* to add Sao Paulo-Rome and Rio de Janeiro-Frankfurt. But I thought of a few others.

No they won't. GRU-FCO will be covered by AZ and GIG-FRA by noboby (can't see LH coming back in the short or middle term).

In addition I like the following ideas:
* Sao Paulo-Los Angeles-Nagoya - It could serve three markets (GRU-NGO, GRU-LAX, LAX-NGO) with the same flight

JJ would be better of routing via Europe due to US Visa restrictions.

* Sao Paulo-New York JFK-Osaka - Since NYC does not have Osaka TAM could serve Osaka using a similar strategy to Nagoya

KIX? Think NGO would be better.

* Sao Paulo-Johannesburg

SAA downgraded GRU from 10x weekly to 7x weekly so I guess the market isn't that big. GIG-JNB on the other hand would be interesting but I don't see JJ doing that.

* Sao Paulo-Sydney
* Sao Paulo-Auckland

Good routes for their pair of A345s.

* Sao Paulo-Lagos (Nigeria has large oil trade)

Brazil's oil industry is based at Rio so I guess a GIG-LOS would be more profitable.

Also JJ could fly:

SSA-MIA
BSB-MIA
CNF-MIA
GIG-LHR
GIG-FRA

But I don't see that happening soon.

[Vincentomoh]

No they won't. GRU-FCO will be covered by AZ and GIG-FRA by noboby (can't see LH coming back in the short or middle term).

So, do you feel that the GRU-FCO market had too much capacity? Or if the market had the right capacity, will AZ adjust its schedules or equipment to take the passenger capacity left behind by Varig?

As for GIG-FRA why would Varig and Lufthansa not feel interested in serving the market?

[PP-VRA]

So, do you feel that the GRU-FCO market had too much capacity? Or if the market had the right capacity, will AZ adjust its schedules or equipment to take the passenger capacity left behind by Varig?

AZ is already doing that. They'll fly to GRU 9x weekly instead of 7x: 6 to FCO and 3 to MXP.
AZ has a GIG-FCO flight in the pipeline but they're having problems with GIG's airport adminstration which, hopefully, will be solved soon enough.

As for GIG-FRA why would Varig and Lufthansa not feel interested in serving the market?

Varig sees GIG as a feeder market for GRU. Their focus is SAO and they made that pretty clear (a mistake if you ask me) but fortunately pax are not accepting to change airports at SAO in order to connect with RG (most of their domestic network is CGH based an their international ops are at GRU).

Lufthansa is a mistery. The market is there they just don't serve it, not even codesharing, never understood that.

[Vincentomoh]

PP-VRA, regarding routing Japan flights, which of the following do you think is TAM's best bet for an intermediate stop to Nagoya and/or Narita (if TAM gets Narita slots)?
* Tijuana, Mexico
* Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
* Lisbon, Portugal
* Madrid, Spain
* Barcelona, Spain

As for Hong Kong, which city is a better intermediate stop?
* Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
* Nairobi, Kenya
* Any other city if neither of them work?

[AA 1818]

PP-VRA, regarding routing Japan flights, which of the following do you think is TAM's best bet for an intermediate stop to Nagoya and/or Narita (if TAM gets Narita slots)?
* Tijuana, Mexico
* Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
* Lisbon, Portugal
* Madrid, Spain
* Barcelona, Spain

As for Hong Kong, which city is a better intermediate stop?
* Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
* Nairobi, Kenya
* Any other city if neither of them work?

I hope that you do not mind that I took the oppurtunity to reply to your request, but as for your stops on the route to Japan - I would discount Madrid and Barcelona - as I have the suspicion that many connecting passngers on this flight would be more comfortable connecting through Lisbon due to the cultural and lingusitic links. The upside to choosing a Spanish stop is that there will be no competition on the route when concerned to other Star Members, and/or TAP. As for Tijuana - I can see a major push from AeroMexico to have that not happen, as it would directly compete with AeroMexico's services to Japan. With that said, we are left with Vancouver. While it seems a bit out there, and there will be very little oppurtuity to pick up and originating traffic in Vancouver - it makes sense and the Canadian visa restrictions are not as horrible as those of the U.S. So, Vancouver seems to be the front runner AFAIK from those that you have selected.

As for the routes to Hong Kong - I am wondering why you chose not to name the same cities that you had mentioned for the Japanese services? I would think that it would make sense for TAM to form an overseas hub (similar to what AI is planning to do at MUC) that would be the base of operations for international travel, outside of the homeland, that would allow them to accomodate for range issues. I think that it would be a great move to form an external focus city and make things easier on themselves, rather than splintering services to many different cities, by many more cities.

[PP-VRA]

As for the routes to Hong Kong - I am wondering why you chose not to name the same cities that you had mentioned for the Japanese services? I would think that it would make sense for TAM to form an overseas hub (similar to what AI is planning to do at MUC) that would be the base of operations for international travel, outside of the homeland, that would allow them to accomodate for range issues. I think that it would be a great move to form an external focus city and make things easier on themselves, rather than splintering services to many different cities, by many more cities.

My thoughts exactly. As for a city to be choosen for that I'd say that one in Europe would be desirable given the fact that brazilians don't need transit visas
for the EU also these routes could benefit from the Brazil-Europe traffic and Europe-Asia as well. Obviously, given TAM's flirt with Star Alliance, a Star Alliance hub in Europe would be ideal since the alliance's synergies could help the flight.

The thing is: which Star hub? FRA? MUC? ZRH? Don't think LIS would be interesting given the fact that LIS-Asia traffic isn't as strong as at the places I mentioned.

[Vincentomoh]

The reason why I thought of GRU-Africa-Hong Kong is from the Great Circle Mapper shows the most direct route as flying over central Africa: http://gc.kls2.com/cgi-bin/gc?PATH=G...OR=&MAP-STYLE=

What I will do is use the IATA visa documentation program to see if there are any African countries that let Brazilians in as transfer pax without visas.

I will use this tool: http://www.emirates.com/english/plan...uirements.aspx

EDIT:
Kenya: "Visa not required if:
- continuing by same or first connecting aircraft; and
- holding confirmed onward/return reservation and entry
documents required for next destination; and
- not leaving the airport (hotel not available at the
airport)."

So like Europe Kenya lets Brazilians through without visas.

EDIT 2: Ethiopia has the same visa transit rules as Kenya.

Perhaps TAM could operate one base for Beijing, Shanghai, Seoul, and Osaka flights in Spain or Portugal. TAM could operate Nagoya out of Vancouver and Hong Kong from Nairobi or Addis Ababa.

I do not think that TAM needs to have that strong LIS-Asia traffic as much of the plane will be taken by Brazilians going to Asia.

My thoughts exactly. As for a city to be choosen for that I'd say that one in Europe would be desirable given the fact that brazilians don't need transit visas
for the EU also these routes could benefit from the Brazil-Europe traffic and Europe-Asia as well. Obviously, given TAM's flirt with Star Alliance, a Star Alliance hub in Europe would be ideal since the alliance's synergies could help the flight.

The thing is: which Star hub? FRA? MUC? ZRH? Don't think LIS would be interesting given the fact that LIS-Asia traffic isn't as strong as at the places I mentioned.

Anyway, AA 1818, please feel free to reply.

[PP-VRA]

The reason why I thought of GRU-Africa-Hong Kong is from the Great Circle Mapper shows the most direct route as flying over central Africa: http://gc.kls2.com/cgi-bin/gc?PATH=G...OR=&MAP-STYLE=

What I will do is use the IATA visa documentation program to see if there are any African countries that let Brazilians in as transfer pax without visas.

I will use this tool: http://www.emirates.com/english/plan...uirements.aspx

EDIT:
Kenya: "Visa not required if:
- continuing by same or first connecting aircraft; and
- holding confirmed onward/return reservation and entry
documents required for next destination; and
- not leaving the airport (hotel not available at the
airport)."

So like Europe Kenya lets Brazilians through without visas.

EDIT 2: Ethiopia has the same visa transit rules as Kenya.

Perhaps TAM could operate one base for Beijing, Shanghai, Seoul, and Osaka flights in Spain or Portugal. TAM could operate Nagoya out of Vancouver and Hong Kong from Nairobi or Addis Ababa.

I do not think that TAM needs to have that strong LIS-Asia traffic as much of the plane will be taken by Brazilians going to Asia.



Anyway, AA 1818, please feel free to reply.

Traffic Brazil-Kenya/Ethiopia is very weak (if it actually exists) so I don't think a stop there would pose any advantege over an European stop even if it makes the flight longer.

TAM might not need a strong LIS-Asia traffic but it would be desirable to take advantage of the existing demand to help filling the flights.

[Vincentomoh]

Is there a lot of traffic between Brazil and India? I wonder if TAM has or plans to have equipment that can fly nonstop to India from Brazil.

[PP-VRA]

Is there a lot of traffic between Brazil and India? I wonder if TAM has or plans to have equipment that can fly nonstop to India from Brazil.

Their A345s can do that (I'm skeptical that such route would work) but TAM doesn't have any plans to serve India.