Air France plane missing?

[Carl E. Hackert]

To blame this accident on global warming is ridiculous and AL Gore's claim that hurricanes are more frequent and more violent thnkas to manmade global wramiong has been discredited by every major scientific groups including the IPCC.

[EconomyClass]

global wramiong

Ha! Easy for you to say.

[EconomyClass]

Airbus Airworthiness

George Larson, editor emeritus of Smithsonian Air & Space Magazine, recently relayed an email conversation he had with a certified aircraft maintenance professional in Opa Locka, Florida. Larson said, “His observations confirm prior assessments of Airbus structural deficiencies within our flight test and aero-structures communities by those who have seen the closely held reports of A3XX-series vertical fin failures.”
The certified mechanic relayed his experience with Airbus airframes saying, “Airbus products are the flimsiest and most poorly designed as far as airframe structure is concerned by an almost obsession to utilize composite materials.” In regards to the vertical stabilizer he said, “The vertical fin along with the composite hinges on rudder and elevators is the worst example of structural use of composites I have ever seen and I am not surprised by the current pictures of rescue crews recovering the complete vertical fin and rudder assembly at some distance from the crash site.”

http://www.examiner.com/x-219-Denver-Weather-Examiner~y2009m6d30-Second-Airbus-crash-calls-into-question-planes-ability-to-withstand-severe-weather

[Leightman]

BEA report in French

Sorry about that, i've recopied the link to the french report here:

http://www.bea.aero/docspa/2009/f-cp...cp090601e1.pdf

Thanks, that one worked. Still gong through it but it already seems to have more info.

[Leightman]

[quote=EconomyClass;521427]http://www.examiner.com/x-219-Denver-Weather-Examiner~y2009m6d30-Second-Airbus-crash-calls-into-question-planes-ability-to-withstand-severe-weather[

"George Larson, editor emeritus of Smithsonian Air & Space Magazine, recently relayed an email conversation he had with a certified aircraft maintenance professional in Opa Locka, Florida. Larson said, “His observations confirm prior assessments of Airbus structural deficiencies within our flight test and aero-structures communities by those who have seen the closely held reports of A3XX-series vertical fin failures.”
The certified mechanic relayed his experience with Airbus airframes saying, “Airbus products are the flimsiest and most poorly designed as far as airframe structure is concerned by an almost obsession to utilize composite materials.” In regards to the vertical stabilizer he said, “The vertical fin along with the composite hinges on rudder and elevators is the worst example of structural use of composites I have ever seen and I am not surprised by the current pictures of rescue crews recovering the complete vertical fin and rudder assembly at some distance from the crash site.”/quote]

Sorry, this seems like a good example of biased journalism playing on the existing emotional biases of readers to sell advertising: quote a seemingly umipeachable source who quotes somebody else (he said it so it must be true!) who contradicts thousands of personnel in design, production, QC, testing, and regulation. Spice up with actual words of the master: "poorly designed", "worst use of composites", "not surprise ( it) ended up some distance from the crash site", and "an almost obsession to utilize composite materials".

In the case of 447, there is as yet no evidence the vertical stab failed other than at impact which tore the plane apart. Location of the crash site is not yet known. All we know is the debris field at various times, so the location of the vstab rudder vs the crash site cannot be stated. The rudder hinges did not fail, despite the trauma, which is actually speaks highly of their strength.The near obsession with composites happens to be shared by virtually every other aerospace manufacturer world wide. It is difficult to find a manufacturer who is not looking for a tougher, lighter, stronger, cheaper, simpler method to replace current parts, and composites are increasingly being employed to that end.

A final conclusion may some day assign some blame to structure; that snould not be ruled out at this point. But the evidence at the moment does not support any of the article's claims.

[swissair]

I am surprised indeed

about this forum ignoring important details such as the topic "Spoiler" and its conditions etc. Some here it seems go round and round biting in their tails....egos in front.

[Leightman]

BEA reports, French vs English

The English version of the BEA report differs in a few areas, with the English version including less information. Specifically, the French version includes the AF447 radio transcript whereas the English version paraphrases the communications; includes jpgs of the day by day acounting of debris recovered; and includes more weather information regarding the storm line, its intensity, and satellite temperature measures by altitude.

The section on reports by three flights (Airbus 330, 340, and B747) bracketing the storm line transit time of 447 in the English version caught my eye. All three flights detoured, 10, 20 and 30 nm, respectively, with one detouring east and the other going west from their planned routes to avoid weather. One of the other flights reported that cloud tops prevented visual contact with storm tops. The following excerpts from page 66 also were interesting:

"Flight IB6024: Flight IB6024 (Airbus A340) passed at the level of the ORARO waypoint at FL370
approximately twelve minutes after AF447. The crew saw AF447 take off while taxiing at Rio de Janeiro. When passing the INTOL waypoint, they encountered conditions typical of the inter-tropical convergence zone. These conditions were particularly severe 70 NM to 30 NM before the TASIL waypoint. They moved away from the route by about 30 NM to the east to avoid cumulonimbus formations with a significant vertical development, and then returned to the airway in clear skies close to the TASIL waypoint.

"Flight AF459 Flight AF459 (Airbus A330-203) passed at the level of the ORARO waypoint approximately 37 minutes after l’AF447. The sky was clear but the half-moon, visible to the aft left of the aircraft, did not make it possible to see the contour of the cloud mass distinctly. After flying through a turbulent zone in the head of a cumulus congestus formation at the level of NATAL, without having detected this zone on the radar, he selected gain in MAX mode. At about 2 h 00, he observed a first echo that differed significantly depending on whether the radar’s gain was in CAL or MAX mode. The TILT was set between -1° and 1.5°. He decided to take evasive action to the west, which resulted in a deviation of 20 NM to the left of the route. During this evasive action, a vast squall line with an estimated length of 150 NM appeared on the screen, which was set to a scale of 160 NM. The echoes were yellow and red when the radar was set with gain on the MAX position and green and yellow when the gain was on the CAL position. No lightning was observed."

Note that there are two distinct instances within this single storm system where turbulent weather encountered was never painted by the wx radar, or appeared abruptly (at 0200) after the radar range was adjusted. The report does not state that the weather radar installed in this aircraft was identical to that of 447, but it does demonstrate the limitations of the weather radar and how those limitations may have negatively impacted 447's decision-making.

"Flight LH507: Flight LH507 (B747-400) preceded flight AF447 by about twenty minutes at FL350.
The crew reported that it flew at the upper limit of the cloud layer and then in the clouds in
the region of ORARO. In this zone they saw green echoes on the radar on their path, which
they avoided by changing their route by about ten nautical miles to the west. While flying
through this zone, which took about fifteen minutes, they felt moderate turbulence and did
not observe any lightning.

I finally checked to actually confirm as true the multiple reports that AF447 informed ATC that it was entering a storm line. I had cited this info from news stories in previous posts. Neither the English nor French versions of the BEA report include an mention of AF447 having said anything at all about weather in its transmissions. This therefore conflicts with my earlier posts that used that info to suggest that the AF447 crew had an elevated awareness of the weather.

I now assume that the crew was well aware of the forecast, but had not exhibited any unusual attitude or attention to the "typical" ITCZ weather. This is a rather fine distinction, but since weather appears to be a big issue in the fate of 447, it should be noted. It may also be relevant that 447's lack of transmissions about the weather also did not include any transmission that they were planning to divert from the planned route.

HT to Burke again for his pointer:

http://www.bea.aero/docspa/2009/f-cp090601e1/pdf/f-cp090601e1.pdf

[Fear_of_Flying]

[quote=Leightman;521433]

http://www.examiner.com/x-219-Denver-Weather-Examiner~y2009m6d30-Second-Airbus-crash-calls-into-question-planes-ability-to-withstand-severe-weather[

"George Larson, editor emeritus of Smithsonian Air & Space Magazine, recently relayed an email conversation he had with a certified aircraft maintenance professional in Opa Locka, Florida. Larson said, “His observations confirm prior assessments of Airbus structural deficiencies within our flight test and aero-structures communities by those who have seen the closely held reports of A3XX-series vertical fin failures.”
The certified mechanic relayed his experience with Airbus airframes saying, “Airbus products are the flimsiest and most poorly designed as far as airframe structure is concerned by an almost obsession to utilize composite materials.” In regards to the vertical stabilizer he said, “The vertical fin along with the composite hinges on rudder and elevators is the worst example of structural use of composites I have ever seen and I am not surprised by the current pictures of rescue crews recovering the complete vertical fin and rudder assembly at some distance from the crash site.”/quote]

Sorry, this seems like a good example of biased journalism playing on the existing emotional biases of readers to sell advertising: quote a seemingly umipeachable source who quotes somebody else (he said it so it must be true!) who contradicts thousands of personnel in design, production, QC, testing, and regulation. Spice up with actual words of the master: "poorly designed", "worst use of composites", "not surprise ( it) ended up some distance from the crash site", and "an almost obsession to utilize composite materials".

In the case of 447, there is as yet no evidence the vertical stab failed other than at impact which tore the plane apart. Location of the crash site is not yet known. All we know is the debris field at various times, so the location of the vstab rudder vs the crash site cannot be stated. The rudder hinges did not fail, despite the trauma, which is actually speaks highly of their strength.The near obsession with composites happens to be shared by virtually every other aerospace manufacturer world wide. It is difficult to find a manufacturer who is not looking for a tougher, lighter, stronger, cheaper, simpler method to replace current parts, and composites are increasingly being employed to that end.

A final conclusion may some day assign some blame to structure; that snould not be ruled out at this point. But the evidence at the moment does not support any of the article's claims.

The referenced article is dated June 30, some two weeks after post #1276 on this forum brought to light this same email and information.

[Leightman]

Sorry for the repetition

FOF: "The referenced article is dated June 30, some two weeks after post #1276 on this forum brought to light this same email and information."

Sorry for the repetition.

[Fear_of_Flying]

FOF: "The referenced article is dated June 30, some two weeks after post #1276 on this forum brought to light this same email and information."

Sorry for the repetition.

You were just responding to someone else's post. I should have attached my post to EconomyClass's original message. But it is interesting how that same information made its way to that article. We have now come full circle.

[juan23]

But it is interesting how that same information made its way to that article. We have now come full circle.

Ref swissair post #2646

[Evan]

[QUOTE=Leightman;521433]

http://www.examiner.com/x-219-Denver-Weather-Examiner~y2009m6d30-Second-Airbus-crash-calls-into-question-planes-ability-to-withstand-severe-weather[

"George Larson, editor emeritus of Smithsonian Air & Space Magazine, recently relayed an email conversation he had with a certified aircraft maintenance professional in Opa Locka, Florida. Larson said, “His observations confirm prior assessments of Airbus structural deficiencies within our flight test and aero-structures communities by those who have seen the closely held reports of A3XX-series vertical fin failures.”
The certified mechanic relayed his experience with Airbus airframes saying, “Airbus products are the flimsiest and most poorly designed as far as airframe structure is concerned by an almost obsession to utilize composite materials.” In regards to the vertical stabilizer he said, “The vertical fin along with the composite hinges on rudder and elevators is the worst example of structural use of composites I have ever seen and I am not surprised by the current pictures of rescue crews recovering the complete vertical fin and rudder assembly at some distance from the crash site.”

Editor 'emeritus'? That's a very self-important title for a retired media professional. Anyway, this is one of those entirely misleading statements that circulate the conspiracy theorist circuit. You notice the reference to Smithsonian Magazine, used here to legitimize the source, despite the fact that the passage was never published within its pages. Had it been considered for publication, it would have gone through the mill of fact checking and source citation that are a routine part of legitimate journalism, and would not refer to 'a certified aircraft maintenance professional in Opa Locka, Florida' without including his name. An email would be the impetus for an investigatory work of journalism, not to be considered legitimate in and of itself. This is classic rumor network tactical methodology, and I'm always amazed at how many fall for it.

And as Leightman has pointed out, if anything, the evidence recovered testifies to the superior strength of Airbus composites.

[P3_Super_Bee]

about this forum ignoring important details such as the topic "Spoiler" and its conditions etc. Some here it seems go round and round biting in their tails....egos in front.

Because its not important nor is its condition.

It is quite possible, that it was found "alone" because it was in the best shape of all the rest, and was still able to float whereas the others were so tore up, they lost their ability to stay afloat.

[Highkeas]

This has been discussed before. In short the recorders are located inside the airfrane where thay are most protected in the event of a crash. How do you suggest the boxes are released from the airframe in the event of a waterborn landing? Explosive bolts? Then you create issues of guarding against an uncommanded deployment and possibly crashing of the aircraft because of the safety systems.

Actually explosively actuated devices are used on several large commercial transport aircraft. I'm not sure of the application these days but they used to be used for slide deployment and fire extinguisers. On older aircraft the passenger oxygen was/is generated by an explosive system - the oxygen is the byproduct of the explosion. I have heard that some aircraft may incorporate passenger air bags (similar to auto airbags) - another use for explosive devices. I have never heard anyone challenge their use on safety grounds - just on cost grounds. Incidentally explosive devices are routinely shipped as freight by FedEx and UPS.

[Fear_of_Flying]

Editor 'emeritus'? That's a very self-important title for a retired media professional.

"George Larson is a Senior Editor for Business & Commercial Aviation. After serving as an artillery captain in Vietnam, Larson, a Harvard graduate, invested his savings in flying lessons to get his Private ticket, and later acquired advanced licenses and ratings under the GI Bill. He began his publishing career with Flying magazine and followed that freelancing for periodicals covering aviation, motorcycles, and related performance-oriented arenas. He also authored The Blimp Book and Fly On Instruments, a piloting primer. He was a staff editor at Business & Commercial Aviation when in 1985 the Smithsonian offered him the opportunity to create and oversee a new magazine to complement its popular National Air & Space Museum in Washington, D.C., which he accepted. He then served as editor of Smithsonian's award-winning Air & Space for 20 years."

From http://www.aviationweek.com/avweek1/...ial_member.jsp

I agree that the article is not well-researched, and that there is not strong evidence currently for structural failure. But every explanation that doesn't involve pitot tubes is not automatically a "conspiracy" theory, and everyone who forwards a possible alternative explanation is not necessarily a crank (although a few on this discussion board probably are).