Yemeni Airliner Down in Comoros (Indian Ocean)

[Evan]

As far as speculation goes, I always look for the unique element first. Here we have a backdoor visual approach, at night with no ILS glideslope (or approach lights?), a fairly demanding turn to base and gusty winds reflecting off terrain. Maybe low clouds off the mountain obscuring the ground beacons... This might explain the missed approach more than the actual crash. In the back of my mind I am concerned that they may have come in hot and high on the first attempt and came in low and slow on the second. The configured turn to base in the dark seems like a vulnerable opportunity for stall. Maybe got into a stall, rolled to level but overcorrected, selected TOGA to pull out, ended up northbound... then what... maybe striking terrain, damaging control surfaces, ditching in the end... Maybe became disoriented on altitude, dropped a wing into the water in the turn...But speculation is wide open here, there is so little to go on right now.

[Tomtom]

What do we know about the pilots?

Haven't heard a lot about the pilots flying. Anybody has some information on their experience, for informational purposes.
Anybody has some info on them? (may they RIP)

greetings from norcal
Tom

P.S. Thanks for the insight Bob!!!

[bobdxb]

As far as speculation goes, I always look for the unique element first. Here we have a backdoor visual approach, at night with no ILS glideslope (or approach lights?), a fairly demanding turn to base and gusty winds reflecting off terrain. Maybe low clouds off the mountain obscuring the ground beacons... This might explain the missed approach more than the actual crash. In the back of my mind I am concerned that they may have come in hot and high on the first attempt and came in low and slow on the second. The configured turn to base in the dark seems like a vulnerable opportunity for stall. Maybe got into a stall, rolled to level but overcorrected, selected TOGA to pull out, ended up northbound... then what... maybe striking terrain, damaging control surfaces, ditching in the end... Maybe became disoriented on altitude, dropped a wing into the water in the turn...But speculation is wide open here, there is so little to go on right now.

As I have mentioned before, only way to find out is to wait for black boxes. You gave few suggestions I have to correct as professional pilot.

1. According to ATC they were cleared for approach, therefore they did not try twice either they did not do GA, once you fail in first attempt you have to announce GA and request for second attempt or wait for ATC instructions....

2. Looking at metars cloud base was FEW/2000 means well above 1230ft (MDA)

I bet on scenario where they did circle to land and went too far on downwind leg (strong tail winds), left safe MDA due disorientation and plunged into the water arround Galawa Beach, which is far from 4NM base leg....

The whole story will be cleared of guessing once black boxes are analyzed and as it happend in the past operators will get full picture for training purposes in order to avoid same mistake....

I use to fly to Sanaa, home base of Yemenia; high altitude, high terrain and can say for sure that any of Yemenia pilots would be irresponsible and neglect HAH approach...

tc, bob

[bobdxb]

Haven't heard a lot about the pilots flying. Anybody has some information on their experience, for informational purposes.
Anybody has some info on them? (may they RIP)

greetings from norcal
Tom

P.S. Thanks for the insight Bob!!!

This is what I have browsed from yahoo, just pictures of pilots;

http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/Yemenia-plane-crashes/ss/events/wl/063009yemencrash;_ylt=AhaDqjDPV2LWaMsL9eIIMDwUewgF;_ylu=X3oDMTFlcWFuNHZ0BHBvcwMzBHNlYwN5bl9yXzNzbG90X3NsaWRlc2hvdwRzbGsDc2xpLWV2LWxpbms-#photoViewer=/090703/ids_photos_wl/r1680958722.jpg

Captain's pic is outdated, you will notice that he has only 3 stripes instead of 4....probably taken when he was F/O

tks, bob

[WhiteKnuckles]

My prejudice (and that's all it is) would be to say an airline like Yemenia would have less than the best pilots flying into some really difficult situations. That landing situation at Moroni sounds like something I'd rather avoid. I'd find the nearest easy landing and then do the last leg by a boat or something. Speaking as a traveler, not an air crew member. Even a prop-driven plane that has the ability to glide without power would give me more confidence. Some places jet airliners just don't belong. I remember landing in Norfolk Virginia in a 727. At the end of the runway, the plane made a turn that felt like a car in a road race. The airport seemed just barely big enough for that landing.

[bobdxb]

My prejudice (and that's all it is) would be to say an airline like Yemenia would have less than the best pilots flying into some really difficult situations. That landing situation at Moroni sounds like something I'd rather avoid. I'd find the nearest easy landing and then do the last leg by a boat or something. Speaking as a traveler, not an air crew member. Even a prop-driven plane that has the ability to glide without power would give me more confidence. Some places jet airliners just don't belong. I remember landing in Norfolk Virginia in a 727. At the end of the runway, the plane made a turn that felt like a car in a road race. The airport seemed just barely big enough for that landing.

I agree with you on the part that you as passenger have the right to pick your plane, I do the same and will avoid doggy airlines arround the world...

However the rest of your comments do not fit. I have had privilage to fly 18 yrs in Dubai based airline, among the rest with usa, british, australian and ex yemenia pilots also.....

Yemenia home base Sanaa is more complicated than HAH and requires skills of the best....high altitude, high terrain nearby, adverse Wx, ILS on one side only - RWY18 and they escaped so far without loss or major accident...

I will ask again in this forum all partcipants to wait for final reports based on black boxes, it is not fair to point either to crew, a/c or airport itself until we know exactly what happend that night...

As you mentioned landing B727 using short runways; I use to operate charter flights (holidaymakers) from UK to Yugoslavia and our commercial dept pushed as to fly almost from every small town arround UK (due low costs, like easy jet and ryan air is doing now). In order to stop before rwy end we have had to apply max braking and our ground staff would use nitrogen to cool the brakes after we taxied in....not anymore..... on A310 I use to fly we have brake fans installed (due to high ambient temp average 45 degC, flying arround middle east brake fans are must - they are an option not standard equipment)....

rgds, bob

[wannabe_A&P_girl]

Has it been noted if the glideslope and/or DME was operational?

[WhiteKnuckles]

Yemenia home base Sanaa is more complicated than HAH and requires skills of the best....high altitude, high terrain in nearby, adverse Wx, ILS on one side only (RWY1 and they escaped so far without loss...

I will ask again in this forum all partcipants to wait for final reports based on black boxes, it is not fair to point either to crew, a/c or airport itself until we know exactly what happend that night...

The plane wasn't landing at its home base,right? It was landing or trying to land in the Comoros. From what little I've learned about that, it sounds like trying to land somewhere in the middle of the Rockies or maybe in a Bolivian airport. Is this the average for this kind of plane? I believe the choice of plane does vary with the terrain,right?

I can see that flight data will seal some issues. But I still think all airports aren't created equal when it comes to takeoff-landing difficulty. Some landings might even require a helicopter.

Do you think pilot skills get allocated according to need or according to where pilots find the most rewards? It'd be great if the easiest landings got the least skilled pilots and the hardest landings were done by the pilots with the greatest experience and skill. But that seems Utopian to me.

Note to self: Ask FAA to assign scores to pilots so I can choose the ones with highest scores for the most scary flights.

[wannabe_A&P_girl]

Has it been noted if the glideslope and/or DME was operational?

Crap. I just saw above that the glidescope was not working. Why? Doesn't the DME help with approaches as well? Does it have to be a combination of both of them, or at night is it more critical to have one or the other?
Please help.

I just saw that it was noted as a scenario. It's early and I am also treading carefully around here. My questions still apply though. Muchos gracias.

[Theoddkiwi]

I will ask again in this forum all partcipants to wait for final reports based on black boxes, it is not fair to point either to crew, a/c or airport itself until we know exactly what happend that night...

The point of the Aviation Safety Discussion forum is to discuss aviation safety, and one of the things we do here is discuss, speculate and propose all things related. If you have followed any of the other threads you will find we go into quite some depth. If we didnt have the discussions the forum would be pointless if all we did was sit around waiting for the official report in 12 months time.

History dictates accidents in aviation have a huge human error component to nearly every accident. Aircraft are found to have flaws in certain areas of their design, Airports are identified as having risky designs and approaches. What we discuss here is not personal attacks on those involved or any disrespect to the victims.

We are a mix of aviation enthusiasts and profesionals discussing why an event has happend. But as i said we would have much to talk about if we sat back and waited for the official reports.

[Evan]

As I have mentioned before, only way to find out is to wait for black boxes. You gave few suggestions I have to correct as professional pilot.

1. According to ATC they were cleared for approach, therefore they did not try twice either they did not do GA, once you fail in first attempt you have to announce GA and request for second attempt or wait for ATC instructions....

You're right of course, we need to wait for the boxes before we can know anything, but this is a forum of people who can't help but wonder, and the forum is the appropriate place to speculate, as opposed to the media. I also agree with you that we shouldn't disparage the crew, but there is a line between disparagement and the acknowledgment of human error. You yourself have speculated this to be a factor in AF447. I think it's necessary to include that possibility, as long as attacks are not made on the overall competency of the crew.

Now, there were several initial reports stating that IY626 had 'attempted to land' and was making a second attempt when it disappeared. These reports cited official sources. I've been assuming they are accurate.

The two mysteries I see are:

1) Radio silence for five minutes prior to the crash. Like AF447, it suggests whatever happened either happened very quickly or was all consuming. If there was a go-around, why no communication?

2) The location of the crash. It is nowhere near the prescribed track. What is unclear is whether the location is where the wreckage was first spotted or where the aircraft is calculated to have gone down. I tend to think the former. With high winds. I wonder how far north it could travel in the two hours between the crash and the rescue.

I don't think speculation will get us far on this one. The black boxes will probably be found but retrieving them is another story. In the meantime, I think most of us assume the weather and the nature of the approach are more causal than any latent weakness in the A310. Therefore I don't feel the same urgency to get to the truth as I do on AF447, or as I did on Turkish 1951, where it truly was urgent to get an MOM out there regarding the A/T restriction. In my mind, the quick safety fix is 'don't fly into Comoros on nocturnal arrivals until the boxes tell the whole story'.

[bobdxb]

Crap. I just saw above that the glidescope was not working. Why? Doesn't the DME help with approaches as well? Does it have to be a combination of both of them, or at night is it more critical to have one or the other?
Please help.

I just saw that it was noted as a scenario. It's early and I am also treading carefully around here. My questions still apply though. Muchos gracias.

Let me explain the basic elements of IFR knowledge, approaching airfield to land we always aim for highest possible available NAV aids....depends on Wx it will be either ILS CATIII/CATII/CATI, if any component of ILS capabilities is not present (not operational) we have to go for NPA approach...

In case of Comoros, present Wx required crew to go for RWY20, initially using either ILS RWY02 or VORDME RWY02 (I have not noticed anywhere that G/S was u/s, in that case crew will opt for VORDME RWY02 chart) to get to the point of HA LOM, where he must initiate circle to land procedure as it is published in chart MVI RWY20

I hope this answers your Q...rgds, bob

[Evan]

Crap. I just saw above that the glidescope was not working. Why? Doesn't the DME help with approaches as well? Does it have to be a combination of both of them, or at night is it more critical to have one or the other?
Please help.

I just saw that it was noted as a scenario. It's early and I am also treading carefully around here. My questions still apply though. Muchos gracias.

The only ILS glideslope is approach to RWY 02, which had a strong tailwind at the time. The opposite, headwind approach to RWY 20 is a non-precision visual track with turns at prescribed vectors indicated on the VOR-DME radial. Tread through the thread carefully and you will see the approach plate posted earlier. There is no ILS approach from north of the runway.

Sorry, I see Bob has already explained it more clearly.

[Carl E. Hackert]

Let me explain the basic elements of IFR knowledge, approaching airfield to land we always aim for highest possible available NAV aids....depends on Wx it will be either ILS CATIII/CATII/CATI, if any component of ILS capabilities is not present (not operational) we have to go for NPA approach...

In case of Comores, present Wx required crew to go for RWY20, initially using either ILS RWY02 or VORDME RWY02 (I have not noticed anywhere that G/S was u/s, in that case crew will opt for VORDME RWY02 chart) to get to the point of HA LOM, where he must initiate circle to land procedure as it is published in chart MVI RWY20

I hope this answers your Q...rgds, bob

Isn't it true that many of the world's major airlines do not conduct timed DME approaches at night on revenue flights because they are inherently more dangerous?

[bobdxb]

The point of the Aviation Safety Discussion forum is to discuss aviation safety, and one of the things we do here is discuss, speculate and propose all things related. If you have followed any of the other threads you will find we go into quite some depth. If we didnt have the discussions the forum would be pointless if all we did was sit around waiting for the official report in 12 months time.

History dictates accidents in aviation have a huge human error component to nearly every accident. Aircraft are found to have flaws in certain areas of their design, Airports are identified as having risky designs and approaches. What we discuss here is not personal attacks on those involved or any disrespect to the victims.

We are a mix of aviation enthusiasts and profesionals discussing why an event has happend. But as i said we would have much to talk about if we sat back and waited for the official reports.

I did not say anything to prevent you or anyone else from discussing about the event, I simply asked people not to comment on issues very sensitive when it comes to judgments like this.....

Originally Posted by WhiteKnuckles
My prejudice (and that's all it is) would be to say an airline like Yemenia would have less than the best pilots flying into some really difficult situations. That landing situation at Moroni sounds like something I'd rather avoid. I'd find the nearest easy landing and then do the last leg by a boat or something. Speaking as a traveler, not an air crew member....

.......and we will not get things any better since gov agencies like NTSB in the states can not influence small country like Comoros unless they have direct flights to/from usa.

I am not an crash expert either just a retired pilot, however I can assure you that significant recommendations from NTSB/other agency handling accident research (in case of AF event French BEA, probably in Comoros also) go to aircraft manufacturers for improvement in case of mechanical errors and any crew error will be forwarded to type operators around the globe to implement in the SOP's....

.....therefore as one of my instructors use to say......engine fire is not big deal....just sit on your hands for a second or two.....coz your immediate actions will do more damage then burning engine itself.

Therefore I repeat my apeal to all, just because the airline/crew involved is Yemenia and not U....d, or Moroni apt is not La Guardia, we are not in position to say either good or bad until we have concrete evidence, and that will re-surface soon.


rgds, bob