Polish President and wife killed in Tu-154 crash

[Northwester]

I'm not so sure about that.

In many operations, procedures don't allow to even attempt an approach in cases like this (visibilty required 1000, informed 400 and 200).

Also, the approach evidently got unstabillized even before reaching the MDA (with descent rates in excess of 1500fpm), but they didn't abort.

Another thing, the lack of an approach briefing is something that called my attention. Except for the captain saying "If we go arround we'll do on autopilot" or something like that, there was no briefing about what approach will be flown, how it will be flown, what would be the go-nogo criteria, what they'll do next if it's a nogo, or what where the functions of each crew member.

And finally, they did bust minimums. Whether it was intentional or not is something we still have to figure out.

I agree that the decision to try an approach was questionable. But once they started the approach from the point 10.41k, things "seemed" to be going ok. I am not sure anymore we can trust the CVR transcript about the descent rate and speed. The issue with a tree clipped at 8m puts few assumptions in question. From the cockpit conversations at least (I suppose these are ok) things seemed to be normal. The fact that there was no briefing about the approach is strange and that was pointed out by some people. But there were parts of the recording that they were not able to understand. None of that though explains the catastrophic seconds of rapid descent that, whether portrayed correctly in the CVR transcript or not, must have happened.

[guamainiac]

As usual I will stand corrected but what point is there in things being normal over 6 miles from the airport? What was the altitude and speed at that distance? That does not even seem relevant to the big picture unless they were way too high and tying to get down almost like those new "green" approaches into London.

Briefing? During a series of go around approaches would they brief from one to the next? Is that SOP?

How long does the tape loop go for, someone said 30 minutes, and how does that time vary from the start of the first approach?

Sorry for that earlier side track on driving .. the point is establishing patterned behavior.

[guamainiac]

Gabriel: Part of what we do is almost by rote and those things that are done day in and day out .. we react to things by what we expect to see and what we have seen thousands of times.

One night I looked down the road and saw lights in the distance and by where the lights were (very late and light traffic), I pulled out only to find the lights of a state trooper flashing in my rear view.

"Why did you pull out on me"

"Sorry sir, I didn't anticipate your excessive speed" , he was doing about 120 in a 45 mile an hour zone.

You anticipate a closure rate but a speed increases it happens so fast and at 100+, your normal glance does not adjust. He handed me back my license and told me to have an nice evening. He knew he should not have been going that fast. It is like having a very fast car; with our traffic it is impossible to get it up to speed and stay away from other traffic.

sorry again for the off course excursion ... something said to me after a bad crash by a trooper .. "we see what we expect to see or are trained to see"

[Northwester]

Briefing? During a series of go around approaches would they brief from one to the next? Is that SOP?

How long does the tape loop go for, someone said 30 minutes, and how does that time vary from the start of the first approach?

One would expect some kind of conversation about the approach before it is executed.

The tape is supposed to be 30 min long. The transcript is over 38 min long. Someone said that it's ok. Some other people say that it is not possible to have a recording that much longer. That much extra tape would not fit into the recorder.

I am not sure - are you saying there was more than one approach?

[Northwester]

Northwester, I have the impression that you have not gone through this.

http://smolensk.ws/blog/168.html

If you didn't, do.

I reviewed it. Excellent work by Sergey Amelin. Of course he is not getting into anything that happened before the first tree was hit. Which I fully understand.

[guamainiac]

Honestly, forgive me for my lack of memory for detail if something was covered in another post or I am simply in error (wrong).

If this was the third shot at landing and they have gone around two other times, how long did that take?

If the tape was only thirty minutes and it took longer than that, is the initial briefing preserved, if indeed there was one?

So, is it required to or just conventional to have a briefing for the second approach and third if the first is not successful? I assume that they go back to the same IP (glider speak for initial point), for each approach.

[Northwester]

Honestly, forgive me for my lack of memory for detail if something was covered in another post or I am simply in error (wrong).

If this was the third shot at landing and they have gone around two other times, how long did that take?

If the tape was only thirty minutes and it took longer than that, is the initial briefing preserved, if indeed there was one?

So, is it required to or just conventional to have a briefing for the second approach and third if the first is not successful? I assume that they go back to the same IP (glider speak for initial point), for each approach.

They did only one approach. So the recording was long enough to register any briefing, if it took place.
I don't think they would have tried the second time if they executed go around after the first attempt.

[guamainiac]

I don't think this is correct. Initial media reports were that the crash happened on the fourth attempt. The Russians say it was the second.

Is there any factual number on this?

[guamainiac]

Sorry, you are correct and from Flight Safety, I found a nice time line and it appears that at 10:25 they are told of the diversion by the Il76 then at 10:37 they radio for permission for a trial approach with the anticipation that they will have to go around (since the Il76 did I assume?), followed by the crash.

[Peter_K]

I don't think this is correct. Initial media reports were that the crash happened on the fourth attempt. The Russians say it was the second.

Is there any factual number on this?

The 4th approach theory was popular during the first days after the crash and was largely a result of the usual media ignorance. Both in Russian and Polish you call circuit turns rather than legs. Base to final is the 4th turn. You still call the turns even in case of a non standardized circuit, so joining on straight final you would call out on 4th and hence the 4th approach legend was born.

[guamainiac]

Thanks. I go on "information overload" just too easy.

[Northwester]

The CVR transcript analyzed and explained by Tu-154 pilots?
That's too intersting to miss it!
Any link? If it's not in the net but in print, maybe you can scan it and post it? If it's on the TV, maybe you can give us a sumarized transcript?

I will post fragments of it - don't have the whole thing yet. Just remember, this is a translation, I am just a messenger.

First issue: After each crash of Tu-154M with a factory installed recorder CVR type MARS-BM the playback of the recording should last 30 minutes. The capacity of the OL4 container practically excludes the possibility of using a longer tape. The length of the recording in this type of recorder should be 30 minutes.
There is a possibility of extending the length of recording using a thinner tape, so more of it can fit into the container. But there is no information about using a longer tape or exchanging the recorder for a newer one in any of the reports referring to the technical condition of Tu-154 with the tactical number 101. There is no mention about anything like that in the documents from the recent overhaul of the plane in Samara.

Just to refresh your memory, the transcript length is over 38 minutes.

[Northwester]

Another part:

Could the Tu-154M crew descend below the altitude set for 100m? – The Russians seem to be trying to hide the fact that it is not possible according to the manual of autopilot (Flight Managing System by Universal Avionics UNS-1D) – the pilots stated. The crew sets the target altitude for 100m. The autopilot will not descend below this altitude. It is hard to deduct from the CVR transcript which functions were set on the autopilot. The SOP manual for Tu-154 states that after reaching the target altitude, the captain has 3.5 seconds to make the decision about landing. And he can do it only if he can see the ground. If that’s the case, he switches to manual mode. If it’s not the case, he pushes the „go around” button which causes the autopilot to apply the take off thrust and ascend to 500m altitude. The autopilot was not turned off, so there was no intention to land.

[guamainiac]

That got my attention ...

Is the tape sound actuated .. on an aircraft it probably couldn't be but what the heck?

Did you interject .."no intention to land" .. or what that on the transcript and if so, was that general consensus or said by and individual?

[Gabriel]

I will post fragments of it - don't have the whole thing yet. Just remember, this is a translation, I am just a messenger.

First issue: After each crash of Tu-154M with a factory installed recorder CVR type MARS-BM the playback of the recording should last 30 minutes. The capacity of the OL4 container practically excludes the possibility of using a longer tape. The length of the recording in this type of recorder should be 30 minutes.
There is a possibility of extending the length of recording using a thinner tape, so more of it can fit into the container. But there is no information about using a longer tape or exchanging the recorder for a newer one in any of the reports referring to the technical condition of Tu-154 with the tactical number 101. There is no mention about anything like that in the documents from the recent overhaul of the plane in Samara.

Just to refresh your memory, the transcript length is over 38 minutes.

If it's a "old type" analogic tape rcorder, as it seems, then there are ways for the recording to last more than designed, other than more length of tape:

The driving motor turning slower.
The tape slipping in some zones.