Polish President and wife killed in Tu-154 crash

[Northwester]

As Gabriel said, in order to prevent future accidents, the investigation has to look at all FACTORS and CAUSES of the accident. We might be getting very close to the cause, but many factors are still left out. It is not OK that the Russians can publish full autopsy report of one selected passenger in order to justify their opinion, but refuse to include ATC recordings in their report.

[Northwester]

You are looking at autopilot inputs. There is no (0) force applied to the control column until 10:40:51, just after the F/O calls out to go-around, between 80 and 60m RA NAV callouts. Everything before that is automation (AP & AT).

Which graph shows what force is applied to CC?

[Evan]

Which graph shows what force is applied to CC?

Page 166, Calculated Forces on the Control Column.

[Evan]

As Gabriel said, in order to prevent future accidents, the investigation has to look at all FACTORS and CAUSES of the accident. We might be getting very close to the cause, but many factors are still left out. It is not OK that the Russians can publish full autopsy report of one selected passenger in order to justify their opinion, but refuse to include ATC recordings in their report.

The report states that data from the relevant tracks of the ATC ground recorders was copied "in cooperation with aviation experts of the Republic of Poland". Furthermore, all ATC communication over 124.0 mHz is included in the CVR transcript and on the CVR tapes.

Northwester, why don't you just tell us what you are getting at? You say "many factors are still left out" (omission) rather than "many factors are fabricated" (deception). You say we have to look at other FACTORS and CAUSES of the accident that are not investigated in the report.

Can you please tell us SPECIFICALLY what you are referring to and where this is leading, and how it might overcome the findings of the Russian report?

[Peter_K]

So why would one of the main objections from Polish side be the refusal of Russian side to provide the documentation of the crash site from the day of the crash?

You seem to have a basic command of the Polish language so perhaps you could provide a link because to my knowledge the crash site documentation was passed on sometime in August.

I don't know if you have noticed it, young man, but my theories change as new facts are revealed. I try to look at things that still require careful examination.

Oh dear! Two replies to my single post. Temper, temper young man!

[Peter_K]

Yes, and you would need those specifics to draw any comparisons to this accident. Most survivable CFIT crashes are wings-level-shiny-side-up-low-approach-angle affairs. This most definitely wasn't. I don't understand how you can expect a human being to survive this kind of trauma. I also don't see where you are going with this.

You still don't know where he is heading with it? They all survived the crash only to be executed by the KGB death squad.

[Northwester]

The report states that data from the relevant tracks of the ATC ground recorders was copied "in cooperation with aviation experts of the Republic of Poland". Furthermore, all ATC communication over 124.0 mHz is included in the CVR transcript and on the CVR tapes.

Northwester, why don't you just tell us what you are getting at? You say "many factors are still left out" (omission) rather than "many factors are fabricated" (deception). You say we have to look at other FACTORS and CAUSES of the accident that are not investigated in the report.

Can you please tell us SPECIFICALLY what you are referring to and where this is leading, and how it might overcome the findings of the Russian report?

Oh come on, Evan. Are you saying that ATC actions have no impact on pilots actions and the flight itself? Give me a break.

If CVR recording is important, and not just the direct communication between the pilots and ATC, so the ATC recording is equally important.

One thing is pilot's error (pilot's errors happen all the time), the other thing is pilot's error in circumstances and conditions that turn that pilot's error into a catastrophic event. It needs to be fully examined if ATC actions contributed to those circumstances and conditions.

Polish side does not have the official ATC recordings. What they got was done in an "unofficial" way.

[kris]

You misunderstood me. I assumed no gradual deceleration. I assumed that the first part of the plane would hit the ground with full 260km/h speed and stop almost immediately, in 0.2 seconds. 0.2 seconds because the travel direction is mainly horizontal and the ground is soft. If you have a stop watch, see how long 0.2 sec is - just an eye blink. So 37g is the max. value for the first part of the plane hitting the ground.

Nope, it's AVERAGE deceleration and not max. Max is almost always (and certainly in most crashes, including this one) greater than average (reasonable factor is maybe 5 times). Average can be (almost) equal to max, but not in a case like this (as long as we're talking about people on board and not about the "fixed" elements of the plane, of course).
If you don't believe physics, see effects of similar crashes.

I agree, both options are possible, but "go-around" more likely.

The second one (reducing sink rate) requires less mistakes to happen (actually, apart from busting minimums, just one - not paying attention to the pressure altimeter). "Early" go-around theory requires a lot of mistakes (failure to disengage AP, failure to set TOGA thrust, failure to raise flaps, failure to monitor basic parameters etc). Also it's hardly compatible with the navigator calling radio altitudes. Occam's razor I guess.

They either screwed up the execution of go-around, or had some other problem.

A technical problem? There is no evidence for that. After all they were able to pull up hard and apply TOGA 10 seconds later. Nothing on CVR either.

I don't know what they were thinking, but FDR shows what they were doing, and they weren't going around.
Though I think Russian explanation is flawed.

[Northwester]

You still don't know where he is heading with it? They all survived the crash only to be executed by the KGB death squad.

You are funny! But if it turns out that even one person survived, even for a short time, you will have to write a big apology here.

[Peter_K]

You are funny! But if it turns out that even one person survived, even for a short time, you will have to write a big apology here.

If that turns out to be true I will write I apology to Northwester one hundred times.

[Northwester]

The second one (reducing sink rate) requires less mistakes to happen (actually, apart from busting minimums, just one - not paying attention to the pressure altimeter). "Early" go-around theory requires a lot of mistakes (failure to disengage AP, failure to set TOGA thrust, failure to raise flaps, failure to monitor basic parameters etc). Also it's hardly compatible with the navigator calling radio altitudes. Occam's razor I guess.

I think it is likely (still waiting for the results of Polish investigation though) that they pushed the button and were fully expecting the AP to do the job.

[Evan]

One thing is pilot's error (pilot's errors happen all the time), the other thing is pilot's error in circumstances and conditions that turn that pilot's error into a catastrophic event. It needs to be fully examined if ATC actions contributed to those circumstances and conditions.

How? Speculate! I'm really curious to know how ATC could have been a deciding factor here, especially after reading and learning about a litany of errors, negligence and violations on the part of the crew and the flight planning. This was a non-precision approach using on-board systems for positional awareness. ATC advised them of the weather. ATC cautioned them about their altitude. The crew basically ignored ATC, so how could ATC have made a difference?

What? How?

You and I both know this tragedy began three years ago in Tbilisi.

See page 126 of the report: Event Concerning Landing in Azerbiajan in 2008.

[Evan]

I think it is likely (still waiting for the results of Polish investigation though) that they pushed the button and were fully expecting the AP to do the job.

Take a close look at the FDR plots on page 151, taken from to a Tu-154M go-around on April 6, 2010. That is what an automatic go around looks like. In order for this to happen, ILS must be active. The pilots would need to know this to be properly certified on the Tu-154M.

[Northwester]

How? Speculate! I'm really curious to know how ATC could have been a deciding factor here, especially after reading and learning about a litany of errors, negligence and violations on the part of the crew and the flight planning. This was a non-precision approach using on-board systems for positional awareness. ATC advised them of the weather. ATC cautioned them about their altitude. The crew basically ignored ATC, so how could ATC have made a difference?

What? How?

You and I both know this tragedy began three years ago in Tbilisi.

See page 126 of the report: Event Concerning Landing in Azerbiajan in 2008.

Let's wait for the full ATC transcripts before we start getting at each others throats.

I am not saying ATC actions were decisive, but rather an important contributing factor.

[Evan]

Let's wait for the full ATC transcripts before we start getting at each others throats.

I am not saying ATC actions were decisive, but rather an important contributing factor.

Again, how? What do you envision?

The ATC transcripts have been released in cooperation with Polish aviation experts. You have said that they are not official. What makes them official? Do you have reason to expect to see a more 'official' version?