Polish President and wife killed in Tu-154 crash

[Myndee]

The initial press reports did say there were several prior attempts to land.

They were all incorrect.

My mistake. I was under the (false) impression that there were two-three prior attempts. Sorry about that. I'm pretty confident my previous post wasn't nonsense though.

I realize that the general (or whoever) didn't come in there with threats and violence. We saw the words the man spoke, but we can't see the gestures, the look on his face, or even the tone of his voice. Paraphrasing what he said, could it have been, "We have a problem then. (That dude back there is gonna be pissed!!11!!") Or was it, "We have a problem then. (I was really hoping to have an early lunch today.") Or, "We have a problem then. (Make it right, or else.")

Why was he in there anyway? Doesn't sterile cockpit apply to military? I thought that's where the concept originated?

It seems to me that the flight crew was under duress to make this landing regardless of the weather conditions. I was under the assumption that pilots chosen to fly the president or leader of a nation are the best of the best in their field. In my opinion only, it seems someone with flying experience would not attempt to bust minimums with VIPs on board or not...regardless of who was frowning at them. (????)

Edit post. Saw this by Evan a few pages back, and this answers my question.

Evan said:
Then the report was released and it revealed that one key assumption was wrong: the crew selected to fly the nation's most important military aircraft was neither elite nor particularly experienced. While I found that shocking, that, and that alone, solved this mystery for me.

Like so many other crashes we have discussed, this one comes down to safety culture, pilot training and pilot experience. This remains the most epidemic threat to aviation. And, as is the case with all the CAA's and operators, the sooner the Poles can come to terms with these facts, the sooner they can remedy the problem.

[Myndee]

Edited. Sorry.

[Myndee]

Opted to delete this one also. Sorry.

[Myndee]

[ATTACH]3799[/ATTACH]

Also seen at the crash site...

Classic.

Sorry but that really made me laugh. Certainly good enough to comment on!

Edit to add that I am not making fun of anyone. I just thought this was a great post in middle of everything that was going on a few pages back. Nice to see things get lightened up a bit, that's all.

[Myndee]

To repeat it one more time: The president of Poland died a year ago, because his pilot made one of the most basic mistakes. He was flying too low in bad weather and try as you might, the fate of the Tu-154 was in the hands of the flightcrew and they had all the means at their disposal to prevent the disaster. But they didn't. Russia may not have put together a good investigation about this accident, but I am convinced they didn't have a hand in the plane crashing.

^^This.

As I said before, I am late in the last several pages of this thread, and I just got to the massive conspiracy unveiling about the crash being expected, extraction crews in place, helicopters, and etc. I am deleting a couple of my posts because I didn't realize that I was feeding right into it all!! I'm sorry.

Edited later to add that I am caught up and my brain is fried. I just don't get all of this...this...thisssss...stuff. It was an ACCIDENT. I know that sometimes people cannot accept that it was an accident and must find something or someone to blame. Yes there are years of hostilties between the Russians and many groups of people, but there was nothing for them to gain for killing this planeload of people. With that said, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that the report was subpar, or that they may have jacked around with (or even messed up) some of the recording mediums for whatever reason. None of that negates that this was apparently an inexperienced crew with poor planning coming in and possibly nervous due to pressure from his superiors. This PIC made a grevious (sp?) error that he should have known better than to attempt. The bottom line is that as PIC he could gone elsewhere, but he didn't. He may have just been sure that the asphalt was going to appear beneath him. How many pilots have just been sure that are now no longer with us? ACCIDENT. Pilot error, not murder. Nobody intended to die that day, or was intended to be killed.

One final question. Was there not video from some locals that ran out to the area immediately following the crash that depicted devestation? I thought that video was shot in the first minutes after the crash, even before crews got there. If that is in fact the case, it was evident that there was not much left of this airplane and that should quash discussions of crews coming in hauling off a largely intact plane. If I am mistaken about the time frame that the video was shot, please disregard this comment.

[Taliesin]

I reread the CVR transcript and there is not a single indication that the general was in the cockpit. There is only one mention of a voice in the background (not inside the cockpit) attributed to the general where he was explaining something to a third person. NOT A SINGLE CASE where the general was directing the crew or even talking to the crew.

Why do you choose to burry your head in the sand?
The general's corpse was found in the cockpit. Unless you have some kind of grassy-knollish theory about how the general's body snapped its seatbelt and flew through the cabin and all the way to the cockpit upon impact, he was in the cockpit.
This fact, in and of itself is scandalous, why do you refuse to admit that?

[Northwester]

Why do you choose to burry your head in the sand?
The general's corpse was found in the cockpit. Unless you have some kind of grassy-knollish theory about how the general's body snapped its seatbelt and flew through the cabin and all the way to the cockpit upon impact, he was in the cockpit.
This fact, in and of itself is scandalous, why do you refuse to admit that?

Because there was NO COCKPIT after the crash! Nothing was left except the nose gear with something attached to it. Where did you get the info that there was an intact cockpit with bodies in it?

[Peter_K]

(...) some of them drunk, on initial approach. (...)

Another gem from Evan. 0,6‰ in many countries is bellow the legal limit for driving. Motor functions, thought process are not impaired. It's like having a glass of wine with your meal.

I know that you know someone was drunk because you red it in MAK report so it must be true, but please do some research on how body decomposing process can affect the alcohol level readouts. In autopsies conducted more than 24 h after the actual death, levels up to and including 1‰ are usually disregarded as a byproduct of natural decomposing process.

But assuming for a moment that he actually had a drink, did it affect the sequel of the events leading to the crash in any way? Was he mumbling something on the CVR? Did he grab the control column in a drunken stupor, slap the pilots? It's nothing more than another clever sociotechnic of which the MAK report makes such a generous use.

You are beginning to sound more and more like a journalist from a colorful tabloid looking for sensation.

I can't believe that the moderators at this site banned actual airline pilots, some of them with aeronautical engineering degree only becasue they dared to expose your B/S.

Having said all that, it would actually be reassuring to know that at least the catering was well prepared for this flight.

[Evan]

Another gem from Evan. 0,6‰ in many countries is bellow the legal limit for driving. Motor functions, thought process are not impaired. It's like having a glass of wine with your meal.

I know that you know someone was drunk because you red it in MAK report so it must be true, but please do some research on how body decomposing process can affect the alcohol level readouts. In autopsies conducted more than 24 h after the actual death, levels up to and including 1‰ are usually disregarded as a byproduct of natural decomposing process.

But assuming for a moment that he actually had a drink, did it affect the sequel of the events leading to the crash in any way? Was he mumbling something on the CVR? Did he grab the control column in a drunken stupor, slap the pilots? It's nothing more than another clever sociotechnic of which the MAK report makes such a generous use.

You are beginning to sound more and more like a journalist from a colorful tabloid looking for sensation.

I can't believe that the moderators at this site banned actual airline pilots, some of them with aeronautical engineering degree only becasue they dared to expose your B/S.

Having said all that, it would actually be reassuring to know that at least the catering was well prepared for this flight.

Peter, Google 'sterile cockpit rule'. Let's have a knowledgeable conversation.

[Northwester]

There are several misconceptions that are being perpetuated here that have no basis in available facts but are pure speculations rooted in one-sided view of the events:
- the pilots were incompetent
- they were under severe pressure
- they wanted to land at any cost
- they did not know the procedures and FCOM

I reread the CVR transcript and listened to it several times. There is nothing there that supports these claims.

The discussion about the "problem" goes like this:
10:26:11
PIC - Director, the fog came out, now and in conditions we have now we won't be able to land.
10:26:20
PIC - We'll try to approach, do one approach, but most likely it will not work.
10:26:25
PIC - So please think about the decision what we'll do then.
10:26:32
PIC - We will not have enough fuel to...
10:26:37
Cockpit - So we have a problem.
10:26:38
PIC - We can hang around for half an hour and go to an alternate.
10:26:43
Cockpit - Where is the alternate?
PIC - Minsk or Vitebsk

I listened to this conversation several times and there is nothing there indicating stress or pressure. Normal tone of voice, normal speed of speaking. The director of protocol was responsible for ground transportation, scheduling, etc. so his problem was to make sure things happen the right way at a different location.

More about the intent:
10:24:51
ATC - Temperature plus 2, pressure 7-45, 7-4-5, no conditions for landing
10:25:01
PIC - Thank you, if we could, we'll try one approach, but if no conditions we'll go around
10:25:18
PIC - Could we have permission for further descent please.
10:25:20
ATC - Heading 40 degrees, descent 1500.
10:30:05
PIC - Korsazh, Polish 101, reached 1500.
10:30:07
ATC - Polish 101, per pressure 745 descent 500.
10:30:15
PIC - Per pressure 745 descending to 500 meters. Polish 101.
10:30:32
Nav - ...500 meters we got permission...
10:34:45
ATC - PLF 101, reached 500?
10:34:49
PIC - Reached 500 meters.
10:34:51
ATC - 500 meters. Have you ever landed on a military airdrome before?
10:34:57
PIC - Yes, of course.
10:35:17
ATC - Polish 101, and from 100m be ready to go around.
10:35:24
PIC - Yes sir.

The pilots expressed an intention to try once, were given permission, and were directed by the ATC all along.

And then:
10:40:38
Nav - 100 meters
10:40:44
A - Nothing visible
10:40:45
PIC - Leaving for go around
Nav - 100, 90.
10:40:46
FO - Go around

Why are we still talking about busting minima?

[guamainiac]

Ummm? If they didn't this thread would not be a happening thing.

The causes of any incident are topical and arguable and that is what this is about is it not?

Your version of speculation is the same as my speculation. My version just makes more sense.

Actually when you peel the skin back from this onion you of course come away with wet eyes but the probable causes are rooted in history that is backed by statistics.

The fact that folks do what they do is also rooted in so many old adages, saws, sayings and such is it not?

How many hours did they have? Compare and contrast with other pilots who fly high priority passengers. Is that high time or a well seasoned crew?

Incompetent? Your inference not mine.

Under pressure to land? From the first time you tug back on a stick the pressure begins. I guess it does not end till your last push on a stick?

They did not know the procedures and FCOM? Who said that. Note that all of my sentences had the little "?" at the end. The Russians said there was no formal Polish translation and they did not speak Russian. Did they? According to the reports only the PIC spoke Russian well enough to be fluent. I am again asking, did they?

If the FO's wife said he spoke fluent Russian he did I suppose. My grandfather spoke Russian very well. Growing up in Przemysl, he said "Edzu, we had to; some nights we went to bed Polish and when we woke up we were Russian".

[Evan]

There are several misconceptions that are being perpetuated here that have no basis in available facts but are pure speculations rooted in one-sided view of the events:
- the pilots were incompetent
- they did not know the procedures and FCOM

Are you saying that there is nothing on the CVR about go-around on automatic? What were the results of those test flight you referred to?

- they were under severe pressure
- they wanted to land at any cost

Refer to the Tbilisi incident in 2008. That is where the pressure begins to develop. The PIC refused to land in unsafe conditions despite an enraged Polish President Lech Kaczyński entering the cockpit and insisting that he do so. That pilot subsequently faced prosecution and was never again assigned to the presidential aircraft. The PIC of this flight was present that day in the cockpit. If you don't see how that pressure is influencing this flight crew, you are seriously deluded.

I reread the CVR transcript and listened to it several times. There is nothing there that supports these claims.

Do you have an audio recording of the CVR? Do you have a link to the official Polish version of it (in Polish is fine)?.

[Northwester]

Are you saying that there is nothing on the CVR about go-around on automatic? What were the results of those test flight you referred to?

Not out yet. Hope they will release them soon.

Refer to the Tbilisi incident in 2008. That is where the pressure begins to develop. The PIC refused to land in unsafe conditions despite an enraged Polish President Lech Kaczyński entering the cockpit and insisting that he do so. That pilot subsequently faced prosecution and was never again assigned to the presidential aircraft. The PIC of this flight was present that day in the cockpit. If you don't see how that pressure is influencing this flight crew, you are seriously deluded.

You already forgot our conversation about this. The pilot never faced prosecution, was promoted, received a medal for his actions, and continued flying the president and prime minister. Please don't spread lies.

Do you have an audio recording of the CVR? Do you have a link to the official Polish version of it (in Polish is fine)?.

I do have an audio recording of the CVR. Are you talking about Polish version of the transcript or recording?

[Evan]

You already forgot our conversation about this. The pilot never faced prosecution, was promoted, received a medal for his actions, and continued flying the president and prime minister. Please don't spread lies.

I'm only going by the official report. If it is inaccurate, then maybe you can point me to a more reliable account, but I'm not simply spreading lies.

THis is from the Polish News, as reported by the Wall Street Journal on July 14th, 2010:

Broadcaster TVN24, a respected Polish news station, is reporting that Polish authorities have managed to decipher more of the cockpit conversation captured by the plane’s voice recorder. What they found appears to indicate significant pressure on the pilot to land the plane, bound for a memorial ceremony in Russia, despite heavy fog and extremely limited visibility.

“If I don’t land, they’ll kill me” or “If we don’t land, he’ll kill me,” the pilot said at one point, several minutes before the plane crashed while attempting to land at a military airport in Smolensk in western Russia on April 10, TVN24 reported Wednesday.

Do you hear anything like that on the CVR?

I do have an audio recording of the CVR. Are you talking about Polish version of the transcript or recording?

I would like to see an official Polish transcript of the CVR.

[guamainiac]

Was the PIC "tabula rasa" on this flight regarding pressure?

Before you answer, think of who the FO was on the flight to Georgia?

Pressure? Condition and response perhaps?