Polish President and wife killed in Tu-154 crash

[Northwester]

If we assume that the 3 second time shift is reasonable based on TAWS alerts issue and the radalt alert point, and project all altitude calls 3 seconds back, then we can plot possible trajectories based both on baro and radio versions. The blue line shows the baro numbers plot, the green line shows the radio numbers plot. Since this is based on the Navigator's calls, it cannot be 100% accurate - he could have read the numbers slightly before or after the actual value. But there is no doubt about which plot is closer to the real trajectory. The blue line, with the exception of the second 100m call, is very close to the real trajectory. The green line, with the exception of the second 100m call is way off. Following the green line the plane would have hit the ground before the MM. The second 100m call point is not clear. Either the trajectory was as shown with the dashed blue line and the Navigator was catching up, or the trajectory shown as the red line is not accurate.

[Taliesin]

Loss of all Objectivity. Fascinating.

[guamainiac]

What? How much objectivity can there be between Poland and Russia.

They ruined TVR and now Saab and .... oh ... off topic.

I don't trust a Russian farther than I can throw him and since Putin and I have a few things in common, well sorry I never got the opportunity to try.

All items should be returned to Poland.

Till then how can they lay this to rest. Hell, the skull of Hitler purported for years to be from his suicide turned out to be a woman.

[Northwester]

Talking about objectivity, which one is correct:

10:40:38.7 ATC 2 on course on path (Russian CVR)
10:40:34 ATC 2 on course on path (Polish CVR released early)
10:40:41.5 ATC 2 on course on path (Final Polish report)

After months of investigation?

And what pilot, looking at the picture, with clear conscience, could say that what is shown (in magenta) here is:

A. They are trying to land fast (that's why the descent is 15 m/s).
B. They are trying to get quickly below the clouds to check where they are (that's why they descend 15 m/s to 20m baro altitude).
C. After calling for GA, they are fumbling with controls and while flying on AP make the plane descend 15 m/s.

Any other suggestions?

[Northwester]

Polish Military Prosecutor, who is in charge of the investigation now, will employ a separate team of experts to review the last few minutes of the flight. These experts, unlike the Investigation Commission experts, will be under oath and working within the framework of the Penal Code. They are also going to examine the wreckage (if Russians allow it) and some other pieces of evidence. The Military Prosecutor also requested expert opinions relating to the CVR and tower recordings.

[Evan]

Polish Military Prosecutor, who is in charge of the investigation now, will employ a separate team of experts to review the last few minutes of the flight. These experts, unlike the Investigation Commission experts, will be under oath and working within the framework of the Penal Code. They are also going to examine the wreckage (if Russians allow it) and some other pieces of evidence. The Military Prosecutor also requested expert opinions relating to the CVR and tower recordings.

I think this is what they call "make-work".

Now that everybody is in agreement about what led to this crash (incredible lack of administration and oversight + VIP syndrome + pilot error), why so much effort on these collateral details? What if they do find that the Russians contributed to this in some way? What does that change? Does it excuse in some way the egregious violations of trust the Polish authorities committed against the Polish people? Does it somehow make an amazing lack of protocol and certification less of a crime?

Put it this way: if the Polish government decided to use trained monkeys instead of pilots (which at least would be trained), and one day the plane crashed because the Russians were all drunk and their radar was pointing at Venus, would the Polish people blame the Russians for being Russians or would they blame the Polish government for flying their president into Russia using monkeys?

Does Poland really have so much taxpayer money to waste on this pointless attempt to salvage some righteous indignation from an otherwise very embarrassing reality?

[Jan-Jasinski]

A bit off topic but I got the chance to photograph the TU-154 from the Polish AF a couple of days ago. It is sitting on the ramp along with the YAK-42's that are all for sale.

Quite sad that many Polak's don't know standard information about the crash.

[Peter Kesternich]

(...)Quite sad that many Polak's don't know standard information about the crash.

Well, why wouldn't they know if they can read the papers?

By the way - what is "standard information"?

[guamainiac]

You mean you got to take photos of a pile of random aluminum and shredded fabric.

Can you share those?

Interesting that what I would declare as evidence is just piled out in the open in what sounds to be a junk pile.

In a crash that is void of controversy the remaining pieces are handled with care and assembled a circumstance would allow. When the head of state dies I would have thought that the remains, the personal effects would be "bagged and tagged" and given transport back to Poland. If only for confirmation regarding the metallurgy, observations to confirm the impact ... all of the basic things and I realize that it is not a perfect world but this is negligent and arrogant.

We are talking about a passenger aircraft with a military designation. I could understand how a hostile AC would be detained or confiscated but this was an accident of a diplomatic flight and those effects should go to Poland.

What do they use for a forensic autopsy over there a chain saw?

Please share those pics if possible.

They are doing:

A. Manufacturing evidence ... perhaps serial numbers?

B. Manipulating evidence ... by destruction in handling or to bend a bit here and twist a bit there.

Pardon me, but before retirement that was usually what was going on when there was a delay or stall or lawyers of stature involved.

Did you know that a freshly caught fresh water trout or flounder from the sea does not smell? In essence it has no aroma at all. It's when it sits for a day and then two it "smells like fish". After a week? You may eat it but I would pass. This?

[guamainiac]

Oh! This is to good.

Some days I just need to as my friend said the other day .... "Will you just retire and let it go"

But I dragged out my old GI (government issue), crystal ball. It was cracked and dusty but after damp rag and a few warm caresses to get it in the mood I did see a hazy vision. Granted it is cracked and not always so clear, perhaps a bit like it's former operator.

I see men in coveralls with a front end loader just loading the dumpsters, about 60 cubic yard types. Steel is rough sorted from the aluminum. Off it goes and on to a reclamation center for metals and then into the smelter.

There will be a brief meeting where the foreman will be chastised and fired for negligence. He will be sorry that he loaded the wrong pile and sent it off. Then after his termination is documented for his bringing shame to Mother Russia and his (alleged drunkenness), he will emerge in a town distant to Smolensk, a small "dacha" on a pond makes a small obscure home and he will be the supervisor of roads or the assistant to the director of engineering on the construction of a __________ (fill in the blank).

Lord, I have spent far too much time in government. For those of you who work in normal jobs, when you fire up the computer, machine or aircraft or whatever, certainly there are perils and risk. Try to imagine a job where you get paid to exist on the edge of paranoia? And then thank the winds of fate or God or the lucky friendship that got you there.



Imagine going into a building and the person who is nailing up some silly thing looks over at you and his look turns to shock and disbelief. He blurts out "they said you were dead" ... you want to laugh perhaps and "Dirty Harry" indeed would but then .... some fine people I would meet, you may say a stew pot of diversity. Some flavors came from the Eastern Block and some from ... dusty places. I like my bigos with a bit of pork but Russian food I could never quite, like trout that was swimming last week but ...

[Northwester]

I think this is what they call "make-work".

Now that everybody is in agreement about what led to this crash (incredible lack of administration and oversight + VIP syndrome + pilot error), why so much effort on these collateral details? What if they do find that the Russians contributed to this in some way? What does that change? Does it excuse in some way the egregious violations of trust the Polish authorities committed against the Polish people? Does it somehow make an amazing lack of protocol and certification less of a crime?

Put it this way: if the Polish government decided to use trained monkeys instead of pilots (which at least would be trained), and one day the plane crashed because the Russians were all drunk and their radar was pointing at Venus, would the Polish people blame the Russians for being Russians or would they blame the Polish government for flying their president into Russia using monkeys?

Does Poland really have so much taxpayer money to waste on this pointless attempt to salvage some righteous indignation from an otherwise very embarrassing reality?

Very skillfull indeed. With few strokes of a pen you managed to include enough value judgements to rip apart half of the universe, with joy.

The point is that the Military Prosecutor is doing his job exactly as his is supposed to do before he can accuse anyone of any wrongdoing. He can only use experts that were not a part of the investigation. If he is going to charge anyone, he has to be prepared for a strong defence. So he is testing the weak parts of the report.

BTW, your concern for the use of Polish taxpayer money is admirable.

[Northwester]

C. After calling for GA, they are fumbling with controls and while flying on AP make the plane descend 15 m/s.

I forgot to add that as the plane is descending 15 m/s, and the auto-throttle is increasing thrust to bring the speed back to 280 km/h, the speed of the plane is decreasing. Purely amazing.

[Jan-Jasinski]

Well, why wouldn't they know if they can read the papers?

By the way - what is "standard information"?

Well information like the Russians took all the people onboard the flight's telephones and erased all data. I do find that standard information.

A part of my family hadn't even heard about the accident and they live in Warsaw.

[guamainiac]

Funny, as this was breaking and over the next few days there were links from Polish reporters on scene.

How could they silence the YAK that held the press corps?

[guamainiac]

On a serious note, my family came from a remote village on the Polish and Russian border.

Not all homes had electricity and after my Dziadek went back for the first time in about 1968 he was shocked at the poverty and neglect under Russian control.

He lived till 102 and said hardly anything changed since he left as a young man. No plumbing and dirt floors. Things were the same as in the 1800's when he left.

Needless to say, though of limited means he started to send money back to get rid of the thatch roof, pour a concrete floor and electricity and proper well and septic. A little money went a long way too.

It is certainly possible that in the hills and hinterlands folks just never got the word or perhaps did not care.