Polish President and wife killed in Tu-154 crash

[Jonathan_Creek]

TU-154 Experimental flight

Taking advantage of beautiful, sunny weather in southern Poland, Polish Air Force took the other remaining TU-154 for a ride today.
They made several attempts to land with go around executed at the final phase (supposedly 80 m above the runaway).

Normally, I would not comment on the news but rather wait with posting for data gathered during this experimental flight.
However, given that the final MAK report was already published and that many participants of this forum decided that the cause of the crash is now fully established, I wanted to share that this experiment was conducted today.

Article (google translate)- http://goo.gl/tRLe1
Pictures - http://goo.gl/N5UDH

[Evan]

Article (google translate)- http://goo.gl/tRLe1
Pictures - http://goo.gl/N5UDH

A bit ghostly.

I'm certainly glad these aren't my tax dollars at work.

[Northwester]

Not a single chair survived this accident in a recognizable condition. You can imagine what happened to people occupying them.

Have you seen all the chairs? If yes, then you must be one of the Russian investigators. No one else has seen full documentation from the crash scene.

[Northwester]

Except... the ground...

Ok, perhaps a very adept Super-Pole could tuck and roll at 300km/h and hit the ground running, while inverted, in a way that overcomes these enormous g-forces. We can't rule that out just because some Russian "medical experts" have. After all, if a NASCAR driver strapped securely into a roll cage by a racing harness and wearing a helmet can survive a high-g racetrack crash, certainly a passenger wearing a lap-belt on a Tu-154 can survive an inverted, airframe-disintegrating crash into a wooded area at maximum thrust. Yes, I can see that now.

What I was showing is that it's not true that all passenger were exposed to 100g or higher and that all perished instantly. You don't have one compact crash site. You have the plane first ploughing the ground with a wing 0.5m into the ground for about 22m. Parts of the plane deccelerated as they hit the ground 130m farther. Those last parts produced about 35g. You know the statistics of survival in crashes like this, I am sure.

[Northwester]

Taking advantage of beautiful, sunny weather in southern Poland, Polish Air Force took the other remaining TU-154 for a ride today.
They made several attempts to land with go around executed at the final phase (supposedly 80 m above the runaway).

Normally, I would not comment on the news but rather wait with posting for data gathered during this experimental flight.
However, given that the final MAK report was already published and that many participants of this forum decided that the cause of the crash is now fully established, I wanted to share that this experiment was conducted today.

Article (google translate)- http://goo.gl/tRLe1
Pictures - http://goo.gl/N5UDH

Excellent. If they can show that with the same flight parameters and instrument settings the plane can recover properly, the whole new Pandora box will open. Good use for (not mine) tax dollars.

[Northwester]

A bit ghostly.

I'm certainly glad these aren't my tax dollars at work.

If they prove what I think they are trying to prove, Evan, you will have to eat your words.

[Northwester]

Agree. This would be like saying, 'The driver was drunk, traveling at 100mph, when he lost control and crossed over into the oncoming traffic... but the lane markings weren't very clearly painted, so he's not entirely at fault.' The airport is what it is. Wishing that it had been a better equipped facility won't get us any farther ahead in understanding what caused this accident.

Maybe if they publish the ATC tapes you will change your mind.

[Northwester]

I think this was, by any measure, a "non-survivable" plane crash. Is there an occasional miracle survivor in such cases? I suppose. But we have the advantage here of hindsight, and perhaps those picking up the body pieces, conducting autopsies, and writing the report didn't notice anyone who might have pulled through had someone only arrived a little sooner and started reassembling him. Really, what is your point? It can take an hour in city traffic for EMS to arrive after an accident. That has nothing to do with what caused the crash in the first place.

My point is that the statment in the report about 100g+ is not accurate.

[Evan]

If they prove what I think they are trying to prove, Evan, you will have to eat your words.

If they can prove that the crew were monitoring QFE and did not descend below MDA without the runway in sight, properly disengaged the autopilot, heeded the TAWS and ATC warnings and did not have a drunk VIP in the cockpit on final, I will gladly eat my words.

[Northwester]

If they can prove that the crew were monitoring QFE and did not descend below MDA without the runway in sight, properly disengaged the autopilot, heeded the TAWS and ATC warnings and did not have a drunk VIP in the cockpit on final, I will gladly eat my words.

I has been just officially confirmed that the PIC issued go-around command 8 seconds before the co-pilot. That is at 10:40:41, after the first 100m call.

[Northwester]

At 10:40:49.2 when the co-pilot says "normal" there is a word before "normal" that is a part of the phrase. He says "______ normal". I cannot make it out yet, but hopefully Polish version of the transcript will have it.

[Northwester]

If they can prove that the crew were monitoring QFE and did not descend below MDA without the runway in sight, properly disengaged the autopilot, heeded the TAWS and ATC warnings and did not have a drunk VIP in the cockpit on final, I will gladly eat my words.

No. If there is a proof that Russians in any way altered or falsified flight records, the whole report goes into garbage and you will eat your words without any conditions.

[Northwester]

Anyone familiar with engine work, in what conditions can you have N1 values go higher and at the same time airspeed decrease?

[Evan]

I has been just officially confirmed that the PIC issued go-around command 8 seconds before the co-pilot. That is at 10:40:41, after the first 100m call.

Officially confirmed by whom? Can you provide a link?

[Northwester]

Officially confirmed by whom? Can you provide a link?

Col. Grochowski, the vice-president of the Polish committee investigating the crash stated it today in a press interview.
Polish experts from the Central Criminal Laboratory examined the tape and provided the information in December.