TU-204 crash at VKO

[Dmitry]

One more picture taken during that landing

[xspeedy]

Initial post crash and rescue video:

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=13e_1356848408

[TheKiecker]

Lots of interesting nuggets in here....

http://www.ndtv.com/article/world/bad-brakes-cited-in-moscow-crash-landing-311397

[Gabriel]

If you search on the net on runway/taxiway excursions you'll see they are fairly common.

Yes, overruns are fairly common worldwide. But three in less than two months within a fleet of just 8 aircraft seems to be very significantly above the average. I have no hard numbers regarding the average, but 3 every 2 month every 8 airplanes looks that it would mean hundreds of overruns per day worldwide, and I don't think that we are anywhere close to that.

The video shows an aircraft speeding fast so that's why it seems that there was no proper braking action. So no wheel braking action al least. It was an empty a/c and light so with reverser action she should be stopped without a problem, even without wheel brakes.

Maybe, but it could also have been a case of a late (and unsuccessful) attempt to go around, an aborted attempt to go around, or a case where significant forward thrust remained applied for some reason. None of them would be a first time ever. As it also wouldn't be a simple too long / too fast touchdown. In the AirFrance overrun crash in Toronto the plane went a long way past the runway, and everything in the plane was working Ok. Remember that the stopping distance goes with the square of the speed, so say 20% more of speed needs 44% more of runway. Combine with a too long touchdown and you'll quickly run out of runway even is the plane is light,e specially if it is slippery. Weight in itself has little contribution to stopping distance, but what happens is that light planes can land slower and now speed yes, it is a strong contributor, but of course you can neglect that advantage by not flying a slower approach).

In short, there are lots of possibilities why this overrun happened. A slowing system(s) failure is only one of them.

[Gabriel]

Lots of interesting nuggets in here....

http://www.ndtv.com/article/world/ba...landing-311397

Lot of BS (read, wild and unfounded speculation). Example:

"The plane touched down in the proper landing"

Given the photo showing the plane still quite high over a fixed-distance marking, I highly doubt it.

[TheKiecker]

No need to get your boxers in a bunch.

Most of that was quoted from people with the airline and Investigators. So Id say they might know a bit more than you.

[ErwinS]

Yes, overruns are fairly common worldwide. But three in less than two months within a fleet of just 8 aircraft seems to be very significantly above the average. I have no hard numbers regarding the average, but 3 every 2 month every 8 airplanes looks that it would mean hundreds of overruns per day worldwide, and I don't think that we are anywhere close to that.

True above average but coincidental. I think you would agree that planes at most airports don't land on snowy undergrounds like they do in Russia.

Lot of BS (read, wild and unfounded speculation). Example:

"The plane touched down in the proper landing"

Given the photo showing the plane still quite high over a fixed-distance marking, I highly doubt it.

Nothing strange about that. Maybe she had long landing clearance? Since she was emty and requested one of the last exits for a shorter taxi?

Let's say she landed 400 meters further than the normal toucdown point. Then she still had more than 2km to come to a stop. More than enough. VKO'runways are both +- 3KM long.

[UALdave]

That's what I like ......a balanced, reasoned analysis of the incident !
Good job you don't work for the Accident Investigators.

Well, neither is blaming the fact that it's a Russian aircraft-which I realize that you didn't do, but expect the news media to jump all over this.

This is tragic, but remember how many accidents Western-made planes have had. The DC-10 had plenty of tragic accidents and is beloved by many as an awesome airplane.

[Gabriel]

True above average but coincidental. I think you would agree that planes at most airports don't land on snowy undergrounds like they do in Russia.

I'm sorry but I'm not buying this. I don't think there are anywhere near 3 overruns every two months every 8 airplanes say in Alaska, Canada, Greenland and Iceland in winter.

[ErwinS]

I'm sorry but I'm not buying this. I don't think there are anywhere near 3 overruns every two months every 8 airplanes say in Alaska, Canada, Greenland and Iceland in winter.

It didn't happen every two months. Only now it did. Rnw's in the above mentioned regions are way beter prepared/maintaned for winter conditions.

[Gabriel]

It didn't happen every two months. Only now it did. Rnw's in the above mentioned regions are way beter prepared/maintaned for winter conditions.

Ok, now we are starting to get some systemic connections between these accidents. Same airline, same airplane type, same poorer runway keeping.

I don't know what will be found. The trend could have been just random chance in the form of bad luck. But I doubt it.

[ultraflight]

No need to get your boxers in a bunch.

Most of that was quoted from people with the airline and Investigators. So Id say they might know a bit more than you.

The "article" is mainly a loose collection of assembled tidbits, some of them complete garbage.

[tsv]

Ok, now we are starting to get some systemic connections between these accidents. Same airline, same airplane type, same poorer runway keeping.

I don't know what will be found. The trend could have been just random chance in the form of bad luck. But I doubt it.

Do you have a source for the "poorer runway keeping" allegation? I'd be interested to have a read if so. In one way I wouldn't be surprised if runway keeping was an issue. As I have posted earlier Corruption is a huge issue in Russia and significantly impedes Safety in all kinds of ways.

But on the other hand, SVX, OVB & VKO (where the TU-204 has experienced overuns) are some of the busiest Airports in Russia. Only SVO, DME & LED would have much more traffic. Several International Airlines, along with a lot of Russian/CIS Airlines, fly to these Ports so if there were issues with runway keeping I would expect they would have been addressed.

[ErwinS]

On Dec 31st 2012 the MAK reported that the runway had been inspected and cleaned 80 minutes prior to the accident. A measurement of the runway friction coefficients 15 minutes after the accident with calibrated equipment determined a value of 0.63 suitable for landing of the aircraft.

Rosaviatsia released a modification to aircraft operations manual requiring flight crew to apply reverse thrust only if the engine is operating (stating application of reverse thrust is prohibited on a malfunctioning engine). To apply reverse thrust the engine should be pulled to idle for 1-2 seconds, then command reverse thrust at minimum thrust, verify yellow "thrust reverser unlocked" followed by green "REV" indications appear, only then apply high reverse thrust. Rosaviatsia reported there have been a number of cases where the green "REV" indication did not appear (editorial note: there have been rumours since the Dec 20th overrun, that the crew had applied reverse thrust, the reverser however had not opened and at least one of the engine was delivering full forward thrust instead).

[Gabriel]

Do you have a source for the "poorer runway keeping" allegation?

Absolutely not. I was just answering to Erwin's suggestion that this might be a factor. Please read the quote at the top of my post and the previous exchange between Erwin and I.